ONLY ONE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AT THE ELECTIONS?

AIM Pristina, January 30, 1998

The calling of parliamentary and presidential elections for the Kosovo Albanians for March 22 this year, places the Albanian politicians, intellectual elite and citizens in general before a dilemma: Whether since May 1992 when they held their first elections, there appeared a personality on the Kosovo political scene who could be a match for Ibrahim Rugova, the present leader of the Kosovo Albanians? The answer is short and clear: No.

Despite procedural objections of the second largest party, Demaci's Parliamentary Party of Kosovo (PPK), to the calling of the elections, almost all other parties which are considered relevant political forces or their "satellites" have confirmed their participation at the announced elections. The Demaci's party was, nevertheless, the first one to officially nominate its presidential candidate, thereby formally recognizing the decision of Dr.Rugova and confirming its participation in the elections. On the other hand, the largest party in Kosovo, the Democratic Alliance (DSK) is in no hurry to start the preparations for the electoral campaign although there are less then two months until the election date. It seems that it has completed its pre-election campaign, or at least its greater part during the inter-party elections. The DSK has put things in order in its ranks thus strengthening its positions within the Albanian electorate and gaining internal strength which makes it possible for it to expect a rather predictable final outcome of the parliamentary elections. As far as the presidential elections are concerned, it is certain already now that, due to the present developments, Ibrahim Rugova is the only one capable of winning the necessary majority of votes for another presidential term.

On the other hand, just a day after his Parliamentary Party of Kosovo and the Democratic Forum of Kosovo (DFK) nominated him presidential candidate, Adem Demaci rejected his nomination and thus definitely withdrew from the presidential race, although he was considered the only one to be a match for Dr.Ibrahim Rugova. Demaci issued a statement in which, among other reasons for his withdrawal, he mentioned the fact that he had not been previously consulted about his nomination. However, the conflict-prone Demaci did not miss this opportunity to attack Dr.Rugova avoiding at the same time to face him in an "electoral duel". "I refuse to be a part of a shameless game which Mr.Rugova and his people want to play once again with our oppressed people. I also refuse to participate in a continued poisoning of our people with the narcotic policy of self-deception. I shall not compete with Mr.Rugova just to keep under political hypnosis our enslaved nation for the sake of base careerist aspirations", pointed out Demaci.

In such a situation with only one candidate at the parliamentary elections, their legitimacy would be rather questionable. Therefore, those well versed in the political situation in Pristina think that Dr.Rugova will "introduce" another candidate into the presidential race, but one that is no threat to him. The name of Mark Krasnici, a member of the Academy, was mentioned as the most appropriate one as he could possibly win five percent of votes at the most. However, Krasnici himself refuted such rumours at a session of the Presidency of his party dedicated to the preparation for the forthcoming parliamentary elections.

Still, on the other hand, it is expected that the announcement that Mr.Uksin Hoti, the best-known Albanian political prisoner and current president (in the prison) of the Party of National Unity (UNIKOMB), has been nominated presidential candidate might make this presidential race more interesting. His nomination, was probably proposed by UNIKOMB both in order to achieve a political effect as well as to discredit "Dr.Rugova's indolent political behaviour", while the PPK is still in two minds whether to side with this candidate or not.

Consequently, it turns out that Dr.Rugova will be the only serious candidate of the "pro-Rugova" political bloc which,apart from the DSK, includes the Christian-Democrats and the Liberals, who enjoy considerable support of the West, as well as Social-Democrats of the former provincial communist official Ms.Kacusa Jasari, who won the support of the Kosovo Albanians back in 1988, and the Nation-Democratic Party, which is a disciple of the party which was the main protagonist of the anti-communist struggle in the begging and just after World War II. On the other side, it is expected that the "pro-Demaci" bloc will, apart from the PPK, include the UNIKOMB, as a party of the left, and a number of less important parties.

In the meantime, the Social-Democratic Party of Mrs. Ljuljeta Pulja Beciri has not yet taken a clear position nor expressed its support to any of the mentioned blocs, although it agreed to join a "coalition" called the Democratic Forum of Kosovo which intends to play the role of Government for the not-yet-constituted Parliament of Kosovo. In other words, the question regarding presidential candidates is still not clear when it comes to Demaci's bloc who, rumour has it, has serious health problems after his car accident two months ago when his car overturned on his way back from a visit he paid to Belgrade on the invitation of the American diplomat Richard Miles.

Meanwhile, speculations in Kosovo have acquired such proportions that according to some circles the PPK might even nominate Azem Vlasi, a former politician very popular in late '80s who does not have much credibility among the Kosovo Albanians. However, such innuendoes were refuted by the PPK representatives with the explanation that "these are just speculations which could not have originated within their ranks".

There are also forecasts as to how the campaign for the election of deputies for the Kosovo Parliament will proceed. People close to Dr.Rugova are expected to win in regions in which their influence is the greatest, after the holding of the PPK Assembly and the election for the Party management bodies. This will make it possible to avoid the repetition of the "error" of four years ago when former political prisoners won a majority in Parliament by way of votes they got as the DSK candidates. Still, through proportionate ballots, the DSK will also nominate some former political prisoners in regions where they are sure winners, so as not to lose the much needed votes.

Such nominations in competition with the PPK candidates will be to the detriment of the latter which does not carry much weight among the electorate. And, for the sake of establishing a multi-party Parliament, the DSK will "give away" several places to some parties close to it. Consequently, the Christian-Democrats of Mark Krasnici are expected to benefit most from this unpublicized alliance with the DSK. The Liberals, Social-Democrats and National-Democrats will also get several places. On the opposite side, after Demaci's spectacular refusal to run for president, the chances of the opposition are very slim and exist only if it forms some kind of alliance. That might be the Democratic Forum of Kosovo, which lost much with the withdrawal of the Confederation of Independent Trade Unions of Kosovo from the work of this association. The Confederation of the Independent Trade Unions of Kosovo could be a powerful force which would attract a large body of unemployed workers which receive aid from this trade-union organization.

The only thing that the local analysts expect is for the opposition which criticises Dr.Rugova for his policy of waiting, to succeed in improving its positions after possible radicalisation of the situation, but they warn that in that case the very holding of the elections would be highly improbable.

AIM Pristina

Rrahman PACARIZI