SOCIAL HOPELESSNESS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

AIM Zagreb, 1 February, 1998

The victory turned out to be terribly tiresome. Just after he had achieved the main national cause, returned eastern Slavonia and rounded off the state in its prewar borders, the Croatian president is faced with new problems which do not allow him to triumph. Although Tudjman unwillingly admits when he has problems, they have now prevailed upon his need for sugarcoating. For the first time they appeared even in his report about the situation in the state and the nation submitted by the head of the state every year to the assembly. The assembly hall was, as usual, packed

• the diplomatic corps, repersentatives of social and political life, religious and public dignitaries - but never has the applause been so lukewarm.

The Croatian president set out on his an hour-and-a-half long and, according to a general evaluation, boring speech with the allegation that "by return under the wing of the Homeland, in a peaceful way, without new victims, of the last part of the occupied territory, the fundamental objective of Croatian national and state policy - full sovereignty of the entire state territory - has been accomplished." As the first task in the first year of the truly peaceful period, he announced "consistent implementation of the policy with which peaceful reintegration of Podunavlje was achieved in cooperation with the international forces and local Serbs". But he skipped any detailed explanation of these problems. Mentioning that, after establishment of independent Croatia in its internationally recognized borders, conditions were met for turning the country to peacetime topics, he devoted most of the attention and time to foreign policy and the economy.

Tudjman believes that with its neighbours Croatia should resolve the existing problems in the next few months. He set the time limit of three to four months for the agreement on demilitarization of Prevlaka. If Belgrade continued to avoid it, he said that further presence of international forces should be called off. If open issues with Slovenia are not resolved within the same period - Tudjman announced a demand for international arbitration. He manifested a similar type of resoluteness towards Bosnia & Herzegovina. He repeated his demands for establishment of special relations between Croatia and B&H Federation. He literally said that "the Croatian nation could agree to Croatian-Muslim Federation only under the condition that it be linked to Croatia".

The economic and social situation in Croatia is a much more unpleasant topic for Tudjman. The Croatian president spoke in favour of preservation of economic stability, stimulation of savings, continuation of privatization, prompting employment. He rejected the "catastrophic petty-political allegations about general impoverishment of the middle class and fabulous fortunes made by a few who are rolling in riches". He announced a reform of the pension system which is facing total collapse, and reduction of allocations for the army.

But, he hardly mentioned the crushing effects of the recently introduced value-added tax which has pulled down the standard of living of the majority of the population and disturbed Croatia. This tax which equally burdens bread and diamonds, threw the burden of supporting the arrogantly extravagant state on to the back of the poorest strata. That is how the division between those who have and those who have not was additionally deepened. Various forms of protests have already started against this, socially unscrupulous tax - from massive protest letters which are sent to the address of the government, to strikes and demonstrations. Tudjman just said that, in the end of the year, effects of this tax would be studied, and that possibly something might be changed.

As adverseness "spoiling the generally favourable economic developments", the Croatian president pointed out to the foreign deficit and unemployment. Numerous economists have lately warned against enormous increase of Croatia's foreign debts; they claim that Croatia has never, not even in the former state, been so indebted. For the first Tudjman has admitted that the high foreign debt has become a problem. He claims that the deficit is not such that it could cause profound financial disturbances, but if borrowing abroad is not stopped, he said, the reoputation of Croatia could be ruined.

The president tried to minimize the alarming data about unemployment which has in the past few months reached the highest level. While the trade unions claim that there are almost 30 per cent of the unemployed in Croatia, Tudjman says that there are only about 10 per cent, but admits that the problem is a first-rate one. He announced the government program which should alleviate the problem. Prime minister Matesa, while speaking about the plan of employment for Dalmatia, recently stated that afforestation and cleaning of beaches would soon be organized. The public whole-heartedly mocked such a program.

The deputies were not given the chance to discuss the annual report of the head of the Croatian state on the situation of the state and the nation. The law simply does not prescribe such a possibility. But, a specific response arrived just two days later, when several thousand members of trade unions from whole of Croatia went out into the streets for the warning march. Although three cordons of policemen prevented them from coming close to the Assembly building, there is no doubt that their messages have reached the highest address.

Trade unions state that reasons for social discontent are numerous and serious. Every third inhabitant of Croatia lives on the verge of poverty. The number of the employed is decreasing every day. In the past seven years 700 thousand jobs have been shut down. The number of the unemployed has reached 300 thousand, and there is another 120 thousand who are emloyed but do not get paid. The average salary in Croatia amounts to about 700 German marks, and for the essential needs of a four-member family, almost double amount of money is necessary. Two thirds of the employed do not reach this average. On the other hand, five hundred individuals own more than half of the national wealth of Croatia. The authorities are offering no real solution or program for all these severe problems.

People have rarely protested in the streets before because of social hopelessness. Many think that the war surroundings and the general feeling that the state is endangered is the reason for this. Partly also because there was nobody to lead the way, and partly because social demands were considered to be politically inadequate. The official rhetoric abolished workers, demands that workers should be ensured dignity were proclaimed a relic of the red past.

Encounter with poverty has opened the eyes of many. The public is increasingly radical and embittered, not even the trade union leaders can keep up with them. It seems that patience has lately run short, as if warming up for a grand exit into the streets has begun. Although he does not know how to accomplish social cohesion, the president of the state certainly knows that he will be forced to buy peace. Probably that is the reason why sale of large public enterprises has been announced. With the current production rate and the current state consumption it will be very difficult to accomplish it. Since the authorities are not manifesting either the will or the capability to work more and spend less, the Croats will probably join the protests in much greater number in spring.

JELENA LOVRIC