New Government and Political Crisis in RS

Defeat of Extreme Nationalism

AIM Banja Luka, 26 January, 1998

By the election of Milorad Dodik for prime minister, one phase of the political crisis in Republica Srpska was completed. The question remains open whether such denouement will actually be the way out of the crisis, or whether it will acquire other forms?

In proportion with the distribution of political forces, to the west of Brcko, the government is accepted without any reservations. The opposition comes from the eastern part, both from the former state leadership from Pale, and from the population. What actions one could expect, nobody can tell at the moment. It is possible to count on obstruction of various kinds - from refusal to hand over power, to the attempt of overthrowing it by demonstrations. Indeed, a major manipulation of the people should not be expected because the people's energy has been exhausted by the war and long economic and social crisis. Besides, the Serb Democrartic Party (SDS), as the bearer of the natioanl cause has largely used its own energy as well and what it has at its disposal now is mere empty talk.

The obvious evidence of this are its former members who are nowadays deputies of the Serb National Alliance (SNS). Among them are the current president and vice-president of RS

• Biljana Plavsic and Dragoljub Mirjanic. In the presidential campaign they were whole-heartedly backed by the SDS, who threw the worst conceivable insults at the opponents.

That confusion has arisen in the attempt to achieve the national cause is also illustrated by the unexpected success of the Radicals, who attracted a great number of disappointed supporters of the SDS. This party is also acting according to the model of a big brother, it is gathered around its leader Nikola Poplasen and without him its operation is utterly confused. The latest assembly discussion showed that it does not operate too well even with him, because they resembled an orchestra which is out of tune - some demanded from Biljana Plavsic to resign, others to change her candidate for prime ministers, and yet others spoke just for the hack of it.

The whole "national strategy" was reduced to the aim to provoke the international community to intervene by directly nominating the prime minister and the government and by doing it cause wrath of the people which should bring them success in the next elections. Legitimate election of Milorad Dodik for prime minister spoiled the plans of the nationalists and questioned their political aim.

Refusal to accept the conception of Mladen Ivanic left a series of open questions which demand an answer from within the Serb political scene. The allegation of the Radicals (Nikola Poplasen) and the SDS at the assembly, but later too, that in the presence of Slobodan Milosevic agreement had been reached about the conception of Mladen Ivanic, but also that "he was forced to withdraw" demands answer to the question who has the right to have the last say in national affairs. Is it still Milosevic who was unquestioningly obeyed until now or will solutions in the future be reached through dialogue and more understanding of local circumstances? Is this perhaps another attempt to dismantle the stand jointly agreed with Milosevic, as it has happened in the past eight years on several occasions (the plan of the Contact Group)? The attitude of Belgrade to Dodik's government might soon give answers to these questions.

The new government headed by Dodik is formed of representatives of three parties from RS (Socialist Party, Serb National Alliance and Independent Social Democrats) and only one expert. Recognized by the international community and Belgrade, it immediately set out to tear down and dethrone Pale, blocking the bank accounts there and reaching decisions about opening them in Banja Luka, signing protocols on filling the budget with money got from the international community and by removing the heads of state institutions and agencies. This is quite a logical approach which clearly indicates that the seat of RS is moving to Banja Luka which should be one of the last radical measures of the new state and territorial organization of RS and its political system.

The government is also faced with a few big tasks - establishment of the authorities in the new seat and in new conditions, arbitration about Brcko, solving the problem of pensioners and acquiring money for salaries of the employees of education, health services, the police and the army. There is certainly also the beginning of the economic reconstruction and development based on money promised by the international community. The financial effects which happened at the very beginning are discouraging the opponents and inspiring confidence.

The analysts of political circumstances agree that Milorad Dodik at the head of the government, for the continuity of RS within the Dayton accords, is a much better solution than an "octroyed government" by Carlos Westendorp, because it should be remembered that 42 deputies of the Socialist Party, the Serb National Alliance, Party of Independent Social Democrats, but also of the Coalition for United and Democratic B&H and Social Democratic Party of B&H, raised their hands in favour of the war head of the staff of the army of RS, general Manojlo Milovanovic, legendary commander of Ozren, colonel Milovan Stankovic and "hardcore combatant of the SDS" Petko Cancara. This very fact will greatly question accusations of the SDS and the Radicals about a treacherous government and blunt their attacks, and bring the necessary stability to Dodik's government.

Those who have not recognised in time the conception of national unity of Mladen Ivanic will have to realise that there are other concepts of unity of RS adopted without them and with votes of parties with which the Serb people were threatened.

Dejan Novakovic

(AIM)