ROGOVA SCHEDULES ELECTIONS
STUDENTS, THE LIBERATION ARMY OF KOSOVO, RUGOVA OR...
AIM Pristina, 10 January, 1998
Tha Albanian political movement in Kosovo stepped into the New year with decisions and stands which, to say the least, predict maintenance of the rhythm of political developments from the second half of last year. From the perspective of the current trends and possible implications of the present processes, it can even be anticipated that events will accelerate, and observation in a broader context points to the possibility of transition of the Kosovo crisis into a phase of new, some would even say, dangerous uncertainty. This is not just empty radical talk of a faction or a layer of the Albanian movement, but a sign that the stand of the most dynamic Albanian political forces concerning the necessity of overcoming the long lasting Albanian political stagnation and lethargy prevailed.
Even without taking into consideration the complex and insufficiently known factor which presents itself as the Liberation Army of Kosovo, it was evident that in the last days of last year the Albanian political dynamic reached its highest point in comparison with the past few years. The Albanian political forces adopted significant political decisions, and just a day before New Year's eve, a new, third in the row and most massive protest of students was organized. Tens thousand students and their professors came out that day into the streets of Pristina and other Kosovo cities. The demand was repeated this time: opening of school and university premises for teaching in Albanian language. But, broarer, direct political and other implications of the protest for general development of the Kosovo crisis are obvious.
By organizing the new protest, students' leadership saw itself as the new force which has the power to move the whole Albanian population from the standstill. But, it seems that readiness is more evident as well as disposition of the Albanians to accept political acceleration of the Albanian movement not only verbally but also by exposing themselves to the risk of going into the streets of Kosovo cities. Encouraged by this fact, students' leaders announced new protests for this year, warning that if their status was not resolved soon, they would be not only students' but also "nation-wide". In the spirit of new disposition of the Albanian public, they cease to be a non-political organization. They sharply criticised the Albanian political parties for lethargy they imposed on the Albanians, demanding from them to carry out their duties or to proclaim the end of their organization and their political activities. These are not new ideas, but they are for the first time proposed by an Albanian organization.
This so far unregistered attack on the Albanian parties was motivated by their silence on the eve of the latest students' protest. It cannot be said that they were indifferent, but it was possible to sense not only unequal support to the protest among them, but even opposed attitudes towards it. However, the Albanian parties have already learnt the lesson that they should not be publicly and explicitly against, that is that they should be undecided, especially because this time it was possible to find some kind of a pretext for it. Representatives of the big powers clearly and resolutely demanded from the Albanian political parties not to interfere with the activities of the Independent Union of Albanian Students concerning organization of public protests.
That is how the Albanian parties found themselves in a very contradictory and unpleasant situation. It was convenient for the parties who did not wish to declare their attitude towards public protests, and those who would heartly support any form of protest were neutralized. But for all of them together this was less unpleasant than the obligation to publicly state their views concerning "impotence of political work and activities which lave lasted for years". Generally speaking, some analysts believe that this was a convenient situation for, as they say, the cheap and transparent calculated behavior of political parties.
In the last few days of last year, leader of Kosovo Albanians Ibrahim Rugova scheduled Albanian parliamentary and presidential elections for 22 March this year. The first such Albanian elections took place in May 1992, and the new ones are scheduled after several postponements and long internal quarrels between those who were in favour and those who were against constitutiing of the parliament which was elected in 1992, those who were in favour and those who were against the elections in due time. It turned out in the end that those who scheduled elections were more powerful, although they themselves were against formal constitution of the previous parliament, after the single attempt when the police had prevented it.
Concentration of the events and processes and their connection with everything that had happened previously in the regions of Djakovica, Pec and Srbica, leaves the impression of a deliberate synchronization. However, relations within the Albanian movement are such that there can be no question about it. Such order of moves was imposed by the objective sequence of events. So many things have piled up here and accumulated in an impossibly short time that no deliberate coordination was needed for the Albanian political forces to accentuate the same problems as the most acute ones. That is the cause of the tricky impression about deliberate synchronization. It is actually the matter of impossibility to postpone certain problems and demands, regardless of the willingness, disposition and readiness of certain Albanian political groups to further postpone them.
The developments and processes which are at the moment visible and present on the Albanian political scene of Kosovo have been ripening for years. That is why it was easy to predict their accumulation and intensification in the second half of last year. Now it turned out that it was not smart to underestimate them, especially not the convenient conditions for the appearance of an Albanian radical group in the ghetto of Kosovo which would have a different viewpoint about the solution of the crisis in Kosovo. Persistent underestimation, even contempt for the so-called radical rhetoric is returning as a true threat which can marginalize Albanian political parties because they are still having problems in accommodating to the newly developed events and processes. They act as if it is all just empty radical rhetoric, although significant portions of the Albanian population, especially the young people, have already found a new model of their political identification in radical groups which are active on the Albanian political space.
Along with strong trends of political monopolism, conformism, demagogy and absurd manipulations with national problems and feelings especially among the uninformed or insufficiently informed strata of the Albanian population, the mentioned processes and events deeply affected the relations inside the political part of the Albanian movement. Even those who are just superficially interested in politics, could clearly see everything in the second half of last year and make a distinction between essential national interests and struggle for power. Mutual backbiting of rivals is also unsparing, but still has not acquired the proportions of gladiator fights in open arena. All in all, never could have Kosovo Albanians like in the past weeks and months seen more clearly how partial interests are decorated with demagogy of general national interests.
Due to generally complex relations, it is necessary to consider the decision of Ibrahim Rugova to schedule new elections in the context of global processes and developments among the Albanians. That is the only way to understand the complexity and range of this decision from the Albanian point of view.
These elections were postponed several times in the past. The true motive of the postponements was preservation of the present distribution of political forces inside the Albanian movement and hope that in the meantime agreement would be reached with Belgrade which would reinforce the political position of the Albanian leadership. However, resistance to constitute the Albanian parliament elected in 1992 and to schedule new elections when the mandate of that parliament expired was justified in public by the risk to strain the situation to dangerous proportions and by advices of "friends from abroad" in this sense.
In conditions of a more radical disposition of a significant part of the Albanian population, previous denial of legitimacy of the authorities elected in May 1992 became not only more explicit but also more logical and more acceptable for the public. Reasons for it became less convincing, especially in the context of problems which became unbearable and dishonourable to such an extent that Kosovo Albanians in the end of the twentieth century could not endure them any more. This refers primarily to the schooling system, but also to certain other forms of obvious discrimination of the Albanians.
By scheduling the elections Rugova opened for himself a manoeuvring space for selection among more different options and temporarily alleviated criticism directed against him from various parts of the Albanian movement. But, all things considered, just for a short time. In fact, Rugova postponed many things for just three months. After that, that is in the second half of March he will have to make up his mind, and he will not have much of a choice. It will be difficult for him to pacify or possibly stifle independent students' protests, and nothing to say about the problem caused to him by the public declaration of three young men that they are members of the Liberation Army of Kosovo about the existence of which he is still suspicious.
That is why the decision about scheduling elections may be an introduction into braoder radicalization of the Albanian movement, and depending on the developments, the last and perhaps even desperate attempt to curb the general trend of radicalization of the Albanian movement. The first assumption is completely contrary to the former Rugova's political philosophy, that is with his view of politics and interests of his political circle. Due to that, it is possible that the most urgent motive of the decision to schedule elections is revival and re-establishment of political authority of Rugova and his political faction in the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo and the Albanian movement in general.
The decision on the elections may be the so far sharpest Rugova's warning to Belgrade and the international community to take the problem of Kosovo more seriously. From this angle, especially in view of the announced diplomatic initiatives, it does not seem that the elections will actually take place when scheduled. It is more likely that these elections will be used in political and diplomatic bargaining. If something like that is accomplished, then the elections can be postponed again, silently or in another way, regardless of how convincing the explanation may be. However, if the diplomatic bargain does not succeed, Rugova will have nowhere to turn to. He will have to make a choice, and there is not much to choose from. That is at least how it looks from the perspective of the current relations within the Albanian movement.
AIM Pristina
Fehim REXHEPI