A Political Panorama of Macedonia

THE AUTHORITIES' HEAD STILL BURIED IN THE SAND!

* SUMMARY: "The Oasis of Peace" was peaceful in 1997 only in the heads of the men in power. The past events were among the fiercest ones in the recent "pluralistic" history of Macedonia, but what is both paradoxical and true is that they did not produce changes commensurate to the energy they carried in themselves. Consequently, the thesis on a stable state and wise management of the state affairs by the authorities became true precisely because the dissatisfied citizens and their (non) party leaders failed to find an efficient form for expressing their dissatisfaction.

AIM Skopje, December 30, 1997

Addressing the nation from the Parliament rostrum, Kiro Gligorov, President of the state, and Branko Crvenkovski, Prime Minister, offered the local public a rosy view of 1998 in Macedonia. According to Gligorov in the last seven years Macedonia had achieved all that was possible, while according to the Prime Minister it had already touched the bottom and has embarked on the way to a true paradise as of early 1997, along which it will continue during 1998.

However, even a superficial summary of the events in Macedonia during last past 12 months does not justify such estimates. Citizens of this state were witnesses of the greatest plunder of their savings in scandals that broke out concerning pyramidal savings schemes TAT, Alfa-S, Lavci and Macedonia-reklam which have not yet been settled in court and which are altogether worth some hundred and fifty million German marks. In only ten days, due to the dissatisfaction of the people with the authorities, the Macedonian opposition parties managed to collect over 220,000 signatures of citizens demanding the calling of a referendum on holding early parliamentary elections. Even the highest representatives of the authorities have admitted to the existence of organized crime in which even some of the top officials are involved.

For a year now the Macedonian state has been shaken by scandals concerning the acquisition of arms for the Macedonian Army and police, which were followed by an affair with several millions DEM worth public procurement made through certain ministries (especially the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of the Interior) out of which a significant sum was paid on account of high prices and to firms close to the people in charge. Despite the Government's claim about the growth of social product, the number of unemployed has reached the figure of some 250 thousand, while the Government pressured by the International Monetary Fund has modestly launched and is slowly implementing restrictive social and pension policies. The denar has been depreciated by some sixteen percent. The police intervention in Gostivar during the taking off of the nationalities' flags from the communal building was brutal. Shooting went on for several hours and there were several casualties. Even after this, the police continued terrorizing the population with raids and using force against old men and children, etc. The case continued with a mock trial of the Gostivar Mayor who was sentenced to 13 years and eight months in prison. It is not hard to conclude how this has affected the already strained relations between the two largest population groups: the Macedonians and the Albanians.

The "fixing" of these unpleasant events is the best proof of the continued pursuance of the "ostrich policy" - burying head in the sand and waiting for things to settle down on their own or for someone else to resolve the problems. This policy which was first pursued by President Gligorov, with time became the rule for the authorities. In short, it means leaving practically all problems unresolved, and expecting the people, who have short memory, to forget all the troubles. The other method is to picture problems differently by skillful manipulation of the controlled media or by implicating the "external factor" take off the edge to such an extent that even those who started, give up. The explosive charge of the robbed depositors of TAT and other savings banks, especially after the events in Albania, did not leave the opposition representatives indifferent. But, thanks to skillful procrastination of the case the denouement is nowhere in sight. It is clear now that with the emergence of new cases in the pyramidal saving scheme the desired effect has been achieved - the robbed depositors have been pushed to the margins and discouraged in their search for justice.

The 220,000 signatures collected in only ten days in support of the calling of a referendum on early parliamentary elections have been reduced to something over 150 thousand signatures in a summary procedure organized for the adoption of the law regulating this problem area. The Assembly of Macedonia had to state its view on this initiative. It did so by proclaiming itself not competent on that subject. The whole thing was further delayed by the procedure instituted before the Constitutional Court. In the meantime, organizers of the signatures collection drive have given up on the idea of organizing public protests wishing to avoid any further increase of tensions. In the end the whole affair was reduced to a farce -the initiative of the deputies of the Liberal - Democratic Party to hold special elections did not pass in Parliament in which the SDSM, together with its coalition partners the Socialist Party and the Albanian Party of Democratic Prosperity, has the majority. In his interview to a radio station, the Prime Minister even stated that regular elections were a characteristic of stable states. According to him, Macedonia was obviously such a state and that therefore the elections would not be held before autumn 1998.

The army and police scandals, like an extended arm of organized crime, have flared up after the American discovery of the smuggling of arms by two brothers, owners of an American and a Macedonian firm with a similar name. It is obvious that Ljubomir Frckovski, former Defence Minister, and Vlado Popovski, former Minister of the Interior, are implicated in this affair, which does not relieve of responsibility some current ministers and even the Prime Minister himself. A new army-police affair "Caklev" was created in the state-controlled media so as to divert the attention from the scandal with the smuggling of arms and equipment into Macedonia, as well as into FR Yugoslavia. Despite the Cabinet reshuffling and the replacement of some former ministers who were connected with the public procurement affair, the "tail" of the current authorities linking them with this scandals is still tagging behind them to this very day.

The Government has again produced a demagogic law - it exempted employers from the payment of all contributions on wages thereby aiming at legalizing the workforce black market. An optimistic forecast was published on this creating additional 50,000 job openings, despite the fact that details of this law are disputable in many respects so that any positive effects are highly improbable. All this much resembles the practice of our neighbours to the North who used to promise high-speed rails, oil wells, etc. just before the elections. Same as the local politicians who laid foundation-stones for numerous facilities, out of which the most important was the railway line which was to connect Macedonia with Bulgaria - but nothing came of it as practically all the activities have been stopped despite of several million dollars invested, and there is no end to it. This did not bother the Government to recently announce the intention of some French partners to invest their know-how and funds in the completion of the railway line and even to extend it to the Albanian port of Durres.

The main role in this is played by a Minister of the Party of Democratic Prosperity, whose Gostivar branch recently accused the opposition Party of the Democratic Prosperity of the Albanians for the events in Gostivar of July 9, and which, together with the National Democratic Party decided to form a Democratic Party of the Albanians the registration of which the current authorities are opposed to. Such moves of the PDP only contribute to speculations on its transformation into an Albanian SDSM. Thus, this party whose delegates to the Parliament were reduced in number at the previous parliamentary elections and which lost the local elections, is keeping its course with all the prospects of gradually disappearing by the time of the next elections. The re-election of Arben Xhaferi for MP, after that same Parliament suspended him from its ranks for not taking part in its work for several months, and whose re-election is now disputed as the competent Parliamentary Board refused to verify his mandate, only shows that his party is stronger. Recently, this Party's Vice-President stated that his party will withdraw from the political scene if it wins less than 50 percent of votes of the Macedonian Albanians.

What is then to be expected in 1998?

On the one hand we have panicky behaviour of the opposition under the cover of arrogant resignation. Several years ago Prime Minister Crvenkovski, whose positions of the first man of the ruling SDSM were shaken, admitted to a group of close friends that all his opponents were fearing a joker up his sleeve and therefore did not dare make the "final cut". However, he was bluffing. There was no joker up his sleeve. But, the fear of his opponents was to his benefit. The Prime Minister promised to eliminate organized crime and gave much proof about its existence. For the time being, he has produced nothing. There are speculations that he will disclose the whole affair, naming names and even arresting some of until-recent Cabinet members, just before the elections.

For a head of Government, whose economic policy is dictated by its foreign sponsors to the last detail, it is a waste of time to prepare a Government paper on economic policy and since he is known as a rare man in these parts with an inborn instinct of a capable politician, he has a variety of possibilities for making a bluff which normal people easily fall for. Naturally, the Prime Minister is still keeping his trump cards - the regular elections scheduled for 1998. But just in case and for the sake of "spreading daily optimism" and diverting the attention of the tongue-tied opposition he is offering new "work triumphs": a new investment cycle worth several hundreds of thousands of German marks secured by the privatization of the "Telekom" which means new jobs, in addition to the optimistic legalization of some fifty thousand "moonshiners".

Despite the potential "bomb of disintegration" from within, the current authorities, within which President Gligorov wants to regain the position he held before the attempt made on his life, while the Prime Minister Crvenkovski shows no intention of helping him reinforce his position of "Elisabeth II", through the activities of the SDSM party apparatus are getting ready for the new elections. Every schoolboy knows about the formation of the "election headquarters" which will have its extended tentacles in the state-controlled media.

What makes the things harder for them is the fact that the promised speed with which they will join the European and NATO structures is not so easy to achieve and that it will take more than ten-fifteen years although it was presented as a matter of days in the past twelve months. The "stampede" of important official high-level visits to Macedonia continues. The authorities interpret it as their success, but the foreigners are becoming increasingly suspicious. The "short memory" of the population which is becoming increasingly aware of what is going on, buying of time and the arrogance of the type "the opposition barks, but the SDSM moves on" can hardly last until the regular parliamentary elections. And it will no longer be so easy for a slightly drugged authorities to produce new bluffs.

Consequently, 1998 does not hold anything better in store than the expiring 1997.

Macedonia is breaking at all seams. Recently a representative of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights focused his attention on the behaviour of the police and the independence of the judiciary. The Skopje weekly "Fokus" offered him some sixty published cases which confirm allegations of foreign civil missions which have visited Macedonia. And their report shall show at which level is Macedonia, from a purely civil point of view. And this has nothing to do with bad inter-ethnic relations, lack of economic policy, corruption, organized crime and God knows what that not only ranks Macedonia among the "banana republics", but also calls into question its ability to survive as a state.

AIM Skopje

ISO RUSI