KOSOVO ALBANIANS LIKE MILUTINOVIC!?

AIM Pristina, 25 December, 1997

The electoral commission of the Republic of Serbia has confirmed the election of Milan Milutinovic, candidate of the Left, for president of Serbia in the second election round that took place on 21 December, 1997. The commission in fact established that 50.92 per cent of the registered voters had cast their ballots in the second round and that, therefore, the condition was fulfilled to proclaim that the candidate who had won the majority of votes was the president. According to the same data, Milutinovic had outrun his rival Vojislav Seselj by a large number of votes.

However, like during the election campaign, in the first post-election analyses, the main issue at stake is not how and why Milutinovic had outrun Seselj by such a large number of votes, but whether the condition that over 50 per cent of the electorate appear at the polling stations was actually met. In view of the distribution of political forces, this is the most interesting question in Serbia. But the view from Kosovo on the election developments makes the one and the other question equally interesting.

According to unofficial data which do not differ much from the official ones, more than 340 thousand voters in Kosovo had come to the polls in these elections. This figure includes voters from three Kosovo electoral districts - Pec, Pristina and Kosovska Mitrovica, as well as four municipalities - Gnjilane, Kosovska Kamenica, Vitina and Novo Brdo, which have, since September parliamentary and presidential elections, been included in the Vranje electoral district. If Kosovo has the total of about one million 40 thousand registered voters, it means that in the second election round 32.5 per cent of the electorate in Kosovo came to the polls.

While reading these data, the first thing that seems illogical is large discrepancy between the number or the percentage of voters and the number or percentage of the Serb population and the others who fully or partially agree to vote in Serbian elections in the total population. After 1981, due to boycott of ethnic Albanians, there was not a single census in Kosovo, but it is assumed that the population which accepts Serbian elections participates in the total population with 10 per cent. The remaining population, that is, about 90 per cent are the ethnic Albanians. In view of the large participation of children's population, the Albanian population of age is probably somewhat smaller, but it is still far below the one which might be suggested by the percentage of participation in the second round of Serbian presidential elections.

This apparently exaggerated dwelling on the ethnic and total composition of the population of Kosovo is significant for the analysis of the outcome of the past elections. Kosovo Albanians have persistently boycotted Serbian elections for seven years now. Last time they participated in the elections in Serbia in the end of 1989. At the time they offered the Serbs a hand of good will, maybe even a compromise, but the current regime in Belgrade arrogantly rejected it. When speaking of elections, the Albanians have been uncompromising even since, so that the question of elections has in a certain sense become a burning hot political and diplomatic issue of the Kosovo situation. Kosovo Albanians boycott Serbian elections absolutely and occasional abuse by propaganda of some ten, twenty or few ten of the Albanians who vote can change nothing about it.

Albanian experts for population development assess that the Kosovo electorate without the Albanians and a certain number of members of other ethnic communities which refuse to participate in Serbian elections, without refugees (calculations say that there are between 20 and 30 thousand of them), policemen, professional soldiers and civil servants brought temporarily to Kosovo, cannot exceed 150 thousand voters. And then, with the refugees and others, there can be no more than 200 thousand. Approximately that is the maximum number of voters in Kosovo, in view of the absolute boycott of the Albanians. Therefore, without ethnic Albanians and others in Kosovo, there can "normally" be about 100 thousand voters. All the data which say otherwise offer reason for doubt, especially when speaking about controversial political processes such as the elections and struggle for power.

The allegation about 340 thousand voters who have voted in the just completed Serbian presidential elections has not been registered in Kosovo in the past seven years. In the first round of this year's September cycle of the elections, allegedly 200 thousand voters had come to the polls, and in the first round of the latest election cycle, according to the official data, about 240 thousand voters voted. In the second round, the number of those who had voted was increased by an additional hundred thousand, so that the figure of 340 thousand votes was somehow reached.

Experts and analysts can make different comparisons in order to show that this is impossible in view of the global situation in Kosovo. Some assess that this number of voters can be yielded by a population of 550 to 600 thousand inhabitants. According to the recent estimates, Kosovo has over two million inhabitants, out of which 90 per cent are ethnic Albanians.

In the end of the second round of this cycle of presidential elections, it was made public that in the electoral district Pec, about 25.6 per cent of the total number of registered voters had voted, although this electoral district has a much larger number of Albanian inhabitants than the Kosovo average. In the electoral district of Pristina, allegedly 30.8 per cent of the total number of registered voters voted. In this cycle of the elections Serb local media failed to give data on the number of those who had voted in certain places where mostly or exclusively Albanians live, because it would be easy to reveal any manipulation. It is possible that this time, the electoral commissions kept this in mind. Therefore, it seems that they applied the method of augmenting the number of those who had allegedly voted in environments where Serb and Montenegrin population exists.

However, ethnic relations and divisions in Kosovo are such that even moderate exaggerations in manipulation of votes of those who did not actually vote can be noticed, and nothing to say about those which are obvious to anybody. There are even fantastic data. For instance, in Pec, allegedly 65.6 per cent of the total electorate voted, although according to the 1981 census, the Albanians formed almost 72 per cent of the population of this municipality. The Albanian experts believe that in comparison with that census, the percentage of the share of the Albanian population has increased in all Kosovo municipalities. In the municipality of Gnjilane, allegedly 52.4 per cent of the electorate voted, and according to the mentioned census, the Albanians formed 71 per cent of the total population. The most incredible datum was given for the municipality of Kosovska Kamenica, where allegedly 76.9 per cent of the electorate had voted, while according to the 1981 census, the Albanians formed 67 per cent of its population.

In the light of the incredible data on the number of those who voted and the choice of the alleged voters, the question of such great superiority of Milan Milutinovic can also be very interesting. The candidate of the Left defeated the candidate of the Radicals in an unbelieveble ratio, much higher than anywhere else in Serbia. In the municipality of Pec, Milutinovic won the confidence of 93 per cent of those who had come to the polls, in Kosovska Kamenica 88.42 per cent, in Gnjilane 85.09 per cent, in municipality called Gora 81 per cent... Milutinovic has by far a lower percentage of votes in Serb municipalities or in those where there are Serbs, but where there had been no exaggerations with augmenting of the number of voters. It turned out that Milutinovic and the parties which support him are favourites of non-Serb ethnic communities, especially of Kosovo Albanians!

However, judging by what representatives of the most significant Albanian parties of Kosovo have declared in their first reactions after the election of Milutinovic for president of Serbia, this could not be said at all, at least not for Kosovo Albanians. On the contrary. Vice-president of the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo Fehmi Agani stated: "The elections in Serbia are not our elections. We see no difference between Milutinovic and Seselj. The latter has a program of more radical rhetoric which has already been implemented in practice by Mlosevic. It seems simply that this time, forgery was applied to a larger extnt. Serbia needed Albanian votes and it invented participation of the Albanians in the elections in order to show that a majority of the total electorate had voted".

President of the Parliamentary Party of Kosovo, Adem Demaqi assesses Milutinovic's victory and Seselj's defeat in the following manner: "As concerning the Albanian issue and democratization of Serbia, Milutinovic and Seselj do not differ in any way. Seselj speaks out what those in power think and do. Nothing new can happen in the policy of Serbia towards the Albanians as long as that policy is in the hands and under command of Mister Miloseviic himself."

Judging that the Albanians and Kosovo can expect nothing good from Milutinovic, vice-president of the Albanian Christian Democratic Party of Kosovo, Tadej Rodiqi says: "Kosovo Albanians need to turn to organization of their own elections, and to expect nothing of Milutinovic".

At a press conference, the leader of Kosovo Albanians announced presidential and parliamentary elections for 22 March next year...

AIM Pristina

Fehim REXHEPI