After Bulatovic Left the Parliemant

War Drums Sounding in Montenegro

AIM Podgorica, 25 December, 1997

Deputies of the political group gathered around Momir Bulatovic left the session of the parliament of Montenegro on Tuesday, 23 December. By doing it, they have derogated legitimacy of the last remaining republican institution, and rounded off preconditions for formation of their own, parallel and extra-institutional authorities. Abandoning the parliament is just one phase in the process Bulatovic and his supporters have announced in November, at the "assembly" in Berane: they would not recognize the authorities which came to power by "stealing votes", and they would do anything to prevent inauguration of Milo Djukanovic for president of the Republic.

The key question which has hovered ever since in the explosive air above Montenegro is - what can departure of Bulatovic's deputies and the venomous announcement of street protests bring to this republic in the forthcoming weeks? "They want to lead Montenegro into a civil war" - ominously but not at all improbable sounded the words of the opposition deputy Dragan Soc. His party comrade, Predrag Popovic did not have such a catastrophic forecast but kept it within limits of a political showdown. "This is a cheap petty politicking game, planned and calculated to bring benefit to Slobodan Milosevic at whose service Bulatovic has put himself directly", said the head of the group of deputies of the coalition National Harmony.

Hardly anyone in Montenegro doubts that moves of Bulatovic's group are remotely controlled by Slobodan Milosevic. The departing president of Montenegro is the main protagonist of the "big leader"'s plan to unitise FRY and grab as much power in it as he used to have as the president of Serbia. Realization of such intentions is dangerously jeopardised by Djukanovic's disobedience and his flirtation with the West. By inauguration at the post of the head of the Montenegrin state, the leader of the "reformists" would additionally strengthen and become almost out of reach of the rivals in Belgrade and Podgorica. Therefore, it is assessed, Milosevic and Bulatovic intend to arrange political elimination of Djukanovic before 15 January.

Bulatovic's supporters explain their departure from the parliament by something quite different - the impossibility to resist the "separatist policy" of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) in that institution and "terrorism of power" which reached its climax in the decision to take away the mandates of four deputies from the group of nationalists defected from Novak Kilibarda's party. "This is an act of force and the first step towards destruction of Momir Bulatovic's DPS", said Zoran Zizic in the parliament. "This is an introduction into throwing us out of the parliament", Predrag Bulatovic, member of the same party, agreed. Such allegations, local analysts believe, just camouflage the assessment that remaining further in the parliament would be politically detrimental for them.

Whether leaving the parliament will be the first step towards realization of the concept with 13 Montenegrin municipalities in which Momir Bulatovic has won in the presidential elections and which will allegedly constitute their own state and elect their own president or will they resort to annexation of the northern part of the Republic to Serbia? These modes of the struggle against Djukanovic were announced last week by a certain Radovan Vukovic, advisor in the federal ministry of internal trade and member of the leadership of Bulatovic's political group. It is, however, hard to believe that such a plan actually exists, since it is quite clear that neither the world nor the Montenegrins will let it pass. Milosevic and Bulatovic are interested only in whole of Montenegro. Whether it will be an "equal" member republic of the federation or just a geographic region within unitary FRY is just the matter of their political evaluation and relation of forces.

    The opinion prevails in political circles in Podgorica

that the choice between war and peace does not depend on the current president of the Republic. The limits of destruction of Montenegro, it is assessed, will be determined by Slobodan Milosevic. Too many times before Bulatovic proved to be incapable to resist Milosevic for anyone to believe that it can be any different now. An additional reason for concern is the experience which seems to show that this republic operates pursuant Murphey's law. As a rule, in this space, the most realistic possibility of a denouement of the political crisis is - the worst one. Scenario of dismemberment of Montenegro, if the "reformists" do not succumb to the traditional means used in showdown in the days of takeover of the presidential office described by the mentioned Radovan Vukovic, was accepted with incredulity just for two or three days. The ceremonial exit from the assembly, seasoned by threats with riots in the streets, fitted perfectly in the methodology of preservation of power at any cost, which was revealed by this pawn of Bulatovic in his statement.

Dr Novak Kilibarda reminded of his recent invitation to NATO to follow closely the developments in Montenegro and be ready to intervene. The leader of the Nationals, nevertheless, believes that, despite all the conditions for the war scenario to begin happening, Milosevic and Bulatovic are well aware what the reaction of the international community would be to such a move. Dr Kilibarda is therefore, closest to the assessment that Bulatovic needs a war state of mind in order to keep up the high level of unity among his supporters until the early parliamentary elections in May next year. That is why the head of the National Party draws the conclusion that the departing president of Montenegro does not, after all, intend to push his supporters over the limit which separates peace from chaos.

In predicting Montenegrin political future, the impression is that one must count on great big crashes, not excluding even militant variants, but also expect the denouement with optimism. A few conditions need to be met for a happy ending, of course. The key condition, at least according to the opinion of a few opposition leaders, is resistance to Bulatovic of a "united front of democratic forces". A post-election coalition of this block with Djukanovic's DPS, according to their expectations, would completely minimize the influence of Bulatovic's group not only in the parliament, but also "in the field". But, at this moment, especially after the belligerent rhetoric of Bulatovic's close associate Zoran Zizic while leaving the parliamnet, hardly anyone would dare bet big money that the political crisis in Montenegro will be solved solely by political means.

Darko SUKOVIC

AIM Podgorica