HOW AND WITH WHOM ACROSS THE RUBICON?

AIM Pristina, 17 November, 1997

According to the Albanian daily "Bujku", considered to be close to the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo, the Milosevic-Nano meeting on Crete was the greatest blow and gravest insult the Kosovo Albanians have suffered in the last several decades. It was observed that in this way the "required" sequence of moves was avoided to first hold Pristina - Belgrade negotiations and resolve at least the problem of schooling since that would restore Ibrahim Rugova's shaken position of the sacrosanct leader of the local Albanians.

Such bitter reactions can be also explained by the complications this meeting will bring to Ibrahim Rugova, whose policy of independent Kosovo seems to be further from becoming a reality then ever. For some time now many Albanians are dissatisfied with what Rugova has achieved in the last seven years, especially compared to what he had promised. This has particularly come to the fore after the Milosevic - Rugova Agreement on Schools, when it became evident that it even that which was signed in principle could not be carried out in practice. That dissatisfaction culminated in students' protests and demands which showed how easy it is to deprive Rugova of the key element of his negotiations: education and University, as it would be hard to imagine that at the time of the Balkans integration and implementation of the Dayton Accords the international community could force the adroit Milosevic to any major compromise.

Seven years ago, by a Referendum at which they opted for independence, the Kosovo Albanians, led by their leader Rugova had "crossed the Rubicon". They embarked upon a hard way of winning the international support and ignoring the Serbian establishment. As his primary objective Rugova insisted on non-violent character of the struggle for the attainment of the Albanian political goals. Since then the situation has radically changed.

At the beginning there was enough money to finance the activities and authorities of the parallel state. Today, the "famous" three percent is paid by a much smaller number of firms and individuals. This seems to be a natural reaction of investors in their relations with a contractor who only has a master design and a construction supervisor. In general, the citizens of Kosovo are getting far less then they used to in early nineties. There seems to be a number of reasons for this.

Many asylum-seekers have found a way to earn their living and have become integrated mostly in European countries so that they are less concerned with the problems here. The majority of asylum-seekers live under very hard conditions and are not in a position to send home any money. Guest workers who in previous years used to come visiting are now burdened by their relatives who in the meantime joined them. Some successful private entrepreneurs have transferred their business operations and funds abroad.

Among less serious consequences of the parallel state's "budget deficit" are rumours about and objections to wasteful spending of funds for travels abroad, as well as not so rare but skillfully masked cases of the misappropriation of funds. There is also less money for the lobbying of individual political circles in the West. However, the greatest problem by far is that there is less possibility for the payment of minimum wages to the teaching staff. This also applies to those categories of the Albanians who receive solidarity assistance. During the period of high inflation they somehow managed to survive, but today with the forcibly stabilized dinar and regression of the German mark, teachers' wages range between 150 - 250 DEM and are below the subsistence level for large Albanian families.

The most interesting by far is to observe the changes that have occurred as a consequence of the confinement of the Albanian information space seven years ago. Instead of "Rilindja" the daily "Bujku" is now considered as a reference and official paper, although it often supplied incomplete information to its readers, especially when international support was in question, thereby frequently creating distorted picture of their real situation. When the American Cultural Center was opened in Pristina, many Albanians thought that it was actually the American Embassy so that there was a rumour going around Pristina that some people visited this Center in their attempt to get a visa or asylum.

Still, the main consequence of the monopoly over the press was that an opinion was created that the official American and Western authorities and institutions support independent Kosovo. Only as of recently, with the appearance of the independent daily "Koha ditore", the Albanians have the opportunity to read unfiltered information.

The confinement of the Albanian radio and TV space caused numerous social changes. A large number of Albanian families bought satellite TV dishes. Their main intention was to be able to follow a relatively short information programme on situation in Kosovo which is broadcast from a studio in Tirana, but very soon they started watching other programmes too. As a result the incoming information on a different way of life in the West and a major breakthrough of the Western civilization.

This especially influenced urban youth and changed its system of values. The modern way of life in cities and particularly the change in the traditional family relations and emancipation of women, provoked strong reactions, primarily in the country, where people still abide by the traditional system of values. This caused a major cultural rift between cities on the one side and villages, towns and suburbs on the other.

Consequently it is considered that in this way the Albanian countryside has become fertile soil for the strengthening of the roots of Islamic religion, as a reaction to secularization and a pro-Western way of life in the cities. This has also undermined the Albanian homogenization in the political sense, as urban population has more or less found compensation for its past political aspirations. Occasional attacks on militia and militant ideas originate from still unidentified environments and perpetrators which represents an additional problem for Rugova because he is forced to justify his peace-making policy and to prove that he still has things under control.

There were other significant social changes. During hard times, while the war raged in Croatia and Bosnia, a very successful action was launched for the eradication of blood feud which was until then justified by the state of emergency and external enemies.

The political situation and events in the past seven years show that the Kosovo Albanians are in the so called pre-pluralistic stage. In a situation when there is no independent state and when they are still fighting for it, it is impossible to establish classical political positions (the left, the right and the center) and relations (the authorities and the opposition), which are defined predominantly in relation to internal political issues. Under present circumstances these can define themselves only in relation to the national objective and method for its attainment which was done seven years ago at a Referendum when Rugova was entrusted with a mandate of implementing the project of independent Kosovo by peaceful means and with the assistance of the international community.

However, at the time this objective was determined the situation in the region was quite different from the present one. In the meantime the war on the territory of former Yugoslavia ended and a significant number of sanctions imposed against the new Yugoslavia was lifted, without any concession in relation to Kosovo. Kosovo also lost the support of its mother country Albania, which has to get back on its feet after the chaos it went through. Today it is possible to discern contours of a future association of the East-European countries, the formation of which is an objective carrying with it an incomparably greater political and economic weight and enjoying far greater international support than the issue of Kosovo's independence ever had, as directly opposed to the former one. Thus, the need for redefining the original objective arises naturally, which the international factor is constantly attempting to achieve by exerting pressure on Rugova and lightly favouring some individuals and groups of different opinion.

In their talks with representatives of the Serbian authorities the international mediators constantly mention the name of Adem Demaci as an alternative and his platform of the confederal status for Kosovo in Yugoslavia, as a step in a positive direction. However, the position of Adem Demaci is far from serious one. He can hardly be expected to win the support of the majority of Albanians. Reasons are many: his sudden appearance in the political life, often reckless statements, contradictory stands, as well as a personal ballast. His platform is equally unacceptable for the Serbs as Rugova's is. Its basic idea boils down to a status of Kosovo equal to that of Serbia and Montenegro, which is an unstable solution as it carries with itself a seed of possible secession, especially in a situation of undefined relations between Serbia and Montenegro.

After the Dayton Accords, Mahmut Bakali, as a personification of the earlier integration of the Kosovo Albanians in Serbia and Yugoslavia, slowly "surfaced". He could win the support of middle-aged and older Albanians who can, on the basis of their own experience, compare the present situation with that when the Albanians lived in Serbia and Yugoslavia "legally and normally" and enjoyed all the rights. However, he does not mean much to the youth and students who represent a significant part of the population.

In the last seven years the Kosovo Albanians have been living in castles in the air. Torn between the real state and the parallel one they have voted for at the Referendum. These seven years have been the longest period of resistance to the establishment in the history of the Kosovo Albanians. Serbian analysts from Kosovo remind that in all other situations the Albanians and their elite were more or less integrated in the state and through their representatives were a part of legal authorities.

They are also aware of a strong, but "silent" pressure being exerted on the Albanian political leadership to make a move in that direction. This pressure broke out in students' protests during which they tried to resolve their problems without Rugova's consent and direct support. In a rather short time students have become a "factor", as apart from Rugova, practically all foreign diplomats in these areas met with them also. Even an alternative contact was established with the Serbian side through talks with a delegation of the Students' Parliament from Belgrade. These talks represented a much greater move for the Albanian students and they probably feared the reactions to these talks much more than their Serbian colleagues. However, the problems of education and University are far from being simple. The problem of the facilities in which the Albanian language will be taught is not disputable. What is disputable is the curriculum, not so much regarding contents of language and history instruction, but rather regarding the powers of the Serbian and the parallel Albanian Ministry of Education whereby the question of education and University carries in its wake the problem of Kosovo in its entirety.

The Albanians are therefore encamped on a bridgehead on the right bank of the Rubicon surrounded from all sides by demands to turn back. The trouble is that those on the other bank of the Rubicon are not too happy about their possible return. The announced talks between Milosevic and Rugova can hardly be realized until the first and second round of the repeated presidential elections are over. It seems that by announcing talks with Milosevic Rugova is trying to restore his position before the scheduled parliamentary elections of the parallel state and prepare voters for a possible redefinition of national stands in near future. There remains to be seen whether Milosevic will allow these elections to be carried out and how, whether at all and with whom will the Albanians cross the Rubicon.

AIM Pristina Slavisa MARIC