Relations Plavsic - Milosevic After the Elections

Back at the Beginning

At the posts they hold, they must cooperate, but they often have difficulties in doing it

AIM Banja Luka, 1 December, 1997

Even when Robert Frowick and his counters of votes officially state for the public the distribution of seats in the parliament of Republica Srpska (RS), the real results of the elections will remain a mystery. In other words, although it will be known how many deputies each party will have, it will still be obscure what it will lead to in the public and political life of RS. It will not be clear how far the SDS has fallen and with it the forces in the society which this party represents, nor will it be clear whether these democratic elections are just a firmer foundation for even more frequent and unreconcilable conflicts and splits in RS.

And the frame of mind of the electorate in RS indeed is complex. The Serb Democratic Party (SDS) with 32.87 per cent, the Serb National Union of Biljana Plavsic (SNS) with 19.87, the Serb Radical Party (SRS) with 19.3, the Socialist Party of RS (SP RS) with 12.24 per cent, plus the still undetermined percentage won by the Coalition for United B&H in which the main force is Izetbegovic's Party of Democratric Action (SDA), plus minor parties with two or three deputies each, are equal to squaring a circle - a riddle which will again be resolved in the end by Biljana Plavsic and Slobodan Milosevic. It will be interesting to watch how these two will start from the beginning. Because a lot has happened since their last meeting.

First of all, the Serb National Union, party "jerry-built" by Ms. Plavsic for these elections of "renegades" from the SDS, has become, whichever way you look at it, the second largest political force in RS. It is an established fact that the motive power of this party is the courage, but one could also rightfully say, naivety of Biljana Plavsic. Both these elements were also the main Plavsic's skills in the beginning of her political career, but at the time she was just a player doing her best in the team carefully coached by a psychiatrist and an economist. Since her career in the SDS was the question of a "big heart", it ended when Biljana felt cheated, that is, when she realized that Karadzic and Krajisnik were not accepting her with equal zeal once she herself became one of the coaches of the SDS team, as they had encouraged and praised her while she was just one of the attack players. Her wrath coincided with the disappointment of the people, with the wish of the citizens of Banja Luka and Krajina to make this city the capital of the republic and with the need of the international community to have somebody it can rely on, even if it were a turncoat whose curriculum vitae, according to their criteria, was not altogether spotless. The result of that is the split of the SDS and the appearance of a party the name of which cannot even be remembered by the voters so it has to be designated by the name of its "parent" - Biljana Plavsic.

Coalitions

Although President Plavsic has made a miracle, it is not sufficient to enable her to propose the candidate for the new government who would be up to her standards and of help to her. At the same time, the SDS with its (for the time being, natural) allies - the Radicals, has barely reached the limit which enables it to have enough votes in the parliament to form the government which could follow in the footsteps of Gojko Klickovic. But in order to have the coalition SDS-the Radicals firmly established in the parliament, it would be necessary to have at least a few more men. Therefore, the Socialist Party of RS, which was ever since its foundation sigfnificantly influenced by Slobodan Milosevic, is increasingly mentioned as the possible third coalition partner. Greek media have recently carried the opinion of the president of FRY that something of the sort could be expected. But, how could it, when everybody knows that the Socialists have been considerably closer to Biljana Plavsic, but especially to Banja Luka (which is the main stronghold of this party), than to Krajisnik and Buha, and nothing to say about Pale? Slobodan Milosevic overcame this obvious discrepancy by claiming that by joining the ruling coalition, the Socialist could work from within and from the position of the authorities contribute to undoing of the national isolationist block.

By following this logic, one could prove that Milosevic is right when he says that SR RS could charge dearly for its services. It could choose to play the role similar to that of German Liberals who, although a minor party, are the weight without which it is impossible to establish balance on the scales of power in Germany. By remaining outside the coalition, the Socialists are risking to remain even without the crumbs off the table of power. With the party of Biljana Plavsic they would reach only the measure of the SDS alone. If they wished to rule (whatever that may mean) they would have to consider the possibility of an agreement (secret or public) with deputies Bosniacs (SDA) and Croats (HDZ). Is that nowadays possible in RS?

Denials

Voters who readily accept something like the SNS of Biljana Plavsic, can just as readily be disappointed. The story of the Together coalition in Serbia is a good lesson, which in the beginning of the year controlled all the large cities as result of its victory in the local elections, but then, due to unmet expectations, it shattered everything to pieces in just three or four months.

Therefore, the SP RS could calmly make various calculations. But what is in these countries and at these times done calmly. There are signs that Milosevic's insisting on the coalition with SDS-SRS could lead to crumbling down of SP RS, and even to its split. That is why opposition to the idea from Belgrade could be very strong, and due to its Promethean position, the SP RS is zealously advocating the government of national salvation or any other creation which would "set stright" all the awkward results of the elections.

The forthcoming weeks will see some very busy activities behind the scene. It need not necessarily mean that Milosevic is actually doing what he preaches.

Biljana Plavsic has already bit her tongue because she had suggested raising charges against Milosevic to the journalist of El Pais. Denials from the office in Banja Luka have just confirmed what Biljana thinks about Sloba. This is, by the way, just the latest demonstration of the range of the "big-hearted policy". When Milosevic had offered the hand of reconciliation, under obvious western pressure, for a cautious politician it certainly could not have meant that he would get unreserved support. That is why, at first, words of excessive praise of her former idol escaped Plavsic, and then she said "Don't ask me anything about him!", and then in the bustle on the eve of the elections she feverishly sought support from the east, even if it were Zoran Djindjic and Milo Djukanovic.

And then, finally, Milosevic's postponement of the promotive flight of JAT's airplane on the day of the opening of Banja Luka airport made Plavsic quiver with rage and become extremely talkative in front of the Spanish journalist. If she had not had the support of Madeleine Albright and the western governments, Plavsic would have probably felt the taste of Sloba's "sanctions" again, but as it is, all her fouls and dribbles will be supported.

Therefore, there will be a new round between Plavsic and Milosevic, in which the only benefit for the Serbs would be if the international community loosened the purse-strings and helped its favourite achieve tangible results by next elections. If not, one should rightfully fear that nobody could make Biljana Plavsic popular again among the pauperized and disappointed Serbs. In other words, if Milosevic pacified him in Serbia, Seselj could make his dream come true in RS. Hardly anybody likes such prospects and that is the reason why Biljana Plavsic has the opportunity to be saved by the nowadays only possible efficacious means - money.

Petar Reljic