CROATIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS BEAT THE RULING PARTY

AIM Zagreb, 4 December, 1997

The Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) has experienced the greatest defeat ever in the repeated elections in one district and about ten cities and municipalities, mostly in Dalmatia. It was necessary to repeat the elections, because going to the polls last spring had not brought a true winner, because no political party won the majority of votes, or because this majority in the meantime and in various ways disappeared. The undecided situation has now been resolved - mostly to the detriment of the HDZ.

The opposition achieved great success, which is the most spectacular in the region of Rijeka, in the Primorska-Goranska district, where the four-member coalition named "Family" headed by the Social Democratic Party, literally ran the ruling party to the ground. The victorious coalition won 56 per cent of the votes, and the HDZ only 24 per cent. Although the opposition is traditionally strong in the part of the country round Rijeka, this result exceeds all expectations. Many analysts believe that this is the result of revolt. For two years now the HDZ is preventing the authorities in this region from being constituted and the district is administered by two government plenipotentiaries. After the elections last spring, the ruling party has almost turned the election defeat into a victory by buying councilmen. They lacked only one vote. They agreed to repeat the elections only after a strong pressure by the Council of Europe.

Except for the triumph in Rijeka, the Social Democrats scored a great success in a considerable number of other cities and municipalities, such as Makarska (where they won almost 50 per cent of the votes), Orahovica, Lastovo, Vinodolski and others. The rise of the Social Democrats who have definitely reinforced their position of the leading opposition party, as well as the notable defeat of the ruling party seem to predict dramatic changes on the Croatian political scene. The elections are significant for whole of Croatia, because they manifest for the HDZ an extremely unpleasant trend. Although the party had made a great effort, although it brought to the leading posts of the local administration men who have a reputation of belonging to the moderate faction, although it promised prosperity, and opened a section of the highway, nothing helped. This is a serious warning that the HDZ is losing popularity on the national level as well.

Tudjman's party tried to explain its failure by the negative campaign of its opponents. It accused the victorious coalition that it had put the emphasis on the bad position of the pensioners, the unemployed and poor opportunities for the young, as well as that it had threatened the public with introduction of the value added tax (it has already become clear that this tax which will be levied as of New Year's Day, will increase the prices of food, and reduce that of fur coats and diamonds). The leading candidate on the list of the HDZ Katica Ivanisevic complained subsequently that in the region of Rijeka a climate had been created in which as she said, "the national spirit has hardly any impact, and much more care is taken about the position of the individual. This is a historical moment which the citizens have not grasped", said this chief support of the HDZ after the election defeat, showing by these words that those in power have no answer for urgent social needs other than the "national spirit".

The results of the elections are also very unpleasant for the parties of the centre, primarily the Croatian Peasants' Party which has not crossed the election threshold, but also for the Croatian Social Liberal Party, which is in a great big crisis because its convention ended in chaos and scandal, so that it is practically ceasing to exist as a unique party. Political analysts announce disappearance of the political centre, which had attempted to be constituted just before these elections, and then slipping into bipolarism. The assessments say that in Croatia two large party groups will be formed - one around the HDZ and the other around the SDP. This is the alternative Croatian opposition parties are faced with nowadays. Most of them are on a descending line, and in these elections the only ones which fared well were the ones which entered the elections in cooperation with the Social Democrats.

The success of the SDP cannot be explained only by the strength of this party, but also by the weakness of the others. It is a party somewhat more serious and steady than the others, but what brings votes to it in the first place is the fact that the public recognizes it as the only true and reliable alternative to the HDZ. The voters did not this time choose so much between programs of the other parties, but against the ruling one. There are those who believe that the situation reminds of that in 1990 by the voting against the current authorities. The Social Democrats have done what the opposition voters sought - they interconnected the opposition parties and had a clear stand towards the HDZ. This refers especially to Rijeka, where the first on the list of candidates Slavko Linic is in this sense a very clever and firm player with clčear views, contrary to the headquarters of this party in Zagreb, from where confusing declarations sometimes tend to arrive. (For example, on the eve of the elections, vice president of the SDP Zdravsko Tomac started publicly speculating that the opposition should assist the HDZ in democratization of the political scene. Although the ruling party has never even hinted that it had such ideas on its mind!)

Excited about its victory, the SDP is now declaring that it is in favour of as early as possible parliamentary elections. They should regularly be scheduled in two years, but there are indications that it would be quite realistic to expect them next year. Such forecasts are founded on the assessment that time obviously does not woirk in favour of the HDZ. The ruling party might hurry the elections up in order to forestall revival of the generally groggy opposition. It is assumed that a process of consolidation of the currently fragmentized opposition scene could soon begin. Assessments of the next moves of the HDZ differ. According to ones, the serious defeat which the party has just experienced could motivate its leadership for democratic changes. And it has already been said that Croatia would become a democratic country when the HDZ supplements its name with "party of democratic changes" as the former league of communists called itself after the reformist faction in it had prevailed. According to the others, the fact that the comparatively moderate party faction of the HDZ has lost in Rijeka will strengthen the radical faction of this party. And this means that the authorities could manifest even more nervousness and rigidity than before.

JELENA LOVRIC