TEST FOR SOCIAL DEMOCRATS IN BANJA LUKA

The Alternative Scrutinized By Europe

AIM Sarajevo, 9 December, 1997

It might sound absurd, but out of hundred odd political parties in Bosnia & Herzegovina which ran in the municipal elections in B&H, as many as forty per cent claim to be founded on the principles of social democracy. On the other hand, social democratic political orientation is not represented in the authorities of either B&H entity even in the approximate ratio, but especially not in the joint institutions. But, the very need to stress and promise social and democratic prosperity even in the most marginal political organizing, that is, in opposing the established nationalistic system in the country, at the same time shows what this country has been deprived of for years, but also what should be the alternative to the present state of hopelessness.

Therefore, out of the numerous parties of social democratic orientation in B&H - and the readers should certainly be spared mentioning of those such as the New Workers' Party, the Peasants' Workers' Party, the Emigrants' Democratic Party !? - four have already imposed themselves, either by their activities or by their election results, as the leading parties of the first level of political orientation. In Republica Srpska this block is represented by the Party of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and theSocialist Party of RS (SPRS), which are supported by dwarf parties from the former Coalition for Peace and Progress, such as the Social Liberal Party or the United Left of B&H. In the B&H Federation, the unquestioned bearers of this political option are the Union of B&H Social Democrats and the Social Democratic Party, along with the also undoubtedly related parties involved in the coalition United List.

The last year's general, and this year's local elections have confirmed that the opposition in B&H is as a rule of social democratic provenance because, apart from the municipal power won in Tuzla, Banja Luka, all the way to Laktasi or Srbac, representatives of solely these four mentioned parties participate in the highest state institution, the Chamber of Representatives of B&H. Of course, objective differences between SNSD and SPRS, as well as the Union of B&H Social Democrats (UBSD) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) - from the programs, origins of these parties and heritage of the former regime, through dubious (un)cooperativeness with the current authorities all the way to possible personal animosities between the leaders of these parties - conditioned not only fragmentation and split in the electorate inclined towards these political options, but also a further lack of coordination of political activities which often culminated in competitiveness and even confrontation of declared like-minded political parties.

But, Social Democratic Europe (it would be difficult to pinpoint a country where Social Democrats are not in power or at least are not one of the most powerful political groups) decided to back up its B&H partners in the attempt of a better coordinated promotion on the whole territory of the state of B&H. Especially since it was revealed that the peace accords signed under pressure and the octroyed Constitution of the state of B&H have no chance to be implemented by those due to whom all the decisions were imposed from abroad in the first place, and since there still does not exist a recognizable and sufficiently strong alternative which would contrary to the current power-wielders, actually carry it out. The first attempt of rapprochement of the existing disunited social democratic alternative in B&H was occasioned by Europe (via the Socialist Internationale, of course, the UBSD and the SDP being its members) at the initial meeting of the mentioned parties towards the end of September in Sarajevo, by bringing to the same table leaders of this option from both entities and by imposing future close cooperation as the topic of the talks. That the initial attempt will not be the last, in other words, that Europe has serious intentions to prepare or rather offer successors of implementation of the American peace plan in B&H becomes clear from the fact that a similar meeting will be held in Banja Luka on the 13 of this month. This time, however, apart from the declarative support of cooperation, social democratic groups of B&H will have to manifest much more clearly the political will for synchronized political appearance and even creation of a possible decentralized association. On the contrary, any withdrawal from institutionalized cooperation will mean dropping out of the group of favoured democratic alternative which is expected to justify the present European investment in it by election results next year.

Objectively, the forthcoming Banja Luka gathering will be the hardest for the Socialist Party of RS. This might even be the final test for this party which is at present stretched between its declarative social democratic political orientation, therefore its own choice of independent political will, and adjusting to Milosevic's instructions according to which relations between Plavsic and Krajisnik waver, that is, being just an instrument of the Belgrade regime. In other words, this party will have to choose either the role of the democratic group and alternative without the Belgrade patron and along with it all the conveniences it brings, or the so-called "patriotic position" in which it will be ordered to oppose the SDS one day and pact with it the next. The current advantage the SP RS has in relation to the Independent Social Democrats - such as the inherited infrastructure from the former communists, known political leaders, well-trained in the former regime (Zivko Radisic, former counter-candidate of Bogicevic for the last Yugoslav presidency, Dragutin Ilic or Zeljko Mirjanic, all highly ranking cadre of former league of communists) - cannot be the leading trump card of this party for long, regardless of the election victory in Banja Luka and Mrkonjic Grad, especially not at the moment when it is necessary to reach the crucial decision about future political activities.

Not that drastic, but certainly similar dilemmas will be imposed on the Social Democratic Party of B&H. Relapse of communist past which not rarely prompted the leadership of this party to grab every post offered it in the authorities formed by the national parties, will soon have to be assessed as wrong policy regardless of the explanation that during the war it had been necessary and a patriotic deed. If not, instead of such an evaluation which would be made behind closed doors of the party, the SDP will live to see even the media which were until recently inclined towards it and which are nowadays busy revealing the responsibility of the SDA for such developments, begin discussing its own responsibility for the dirty side of the war. In other words, just a crystally clear stand of the leadership of the SDP about the role of this party in the past and objectives in the future period can spare it the formulation such as the following - there can be no equation of guilt, but by sitting in the armchairs of the Presidency, the Assembly or the Government you too share the responsibility for the nowadays opened criminal dossiers. The Social Democratic Party is also in an advantage over its partner UBSD because of its better infrastructure or by far larger number of members who are established in public life (from the president Zlatko Lagumdzija, Mirsad Dzapa and Sead Avdic to Bogic Bogicevic, Miro Lazovic, Gradimir Gojer and others), so that although it had not won in any municipality in the last local elections, it has evidently reinforced its position in a number of them all over B&H. Further progressive trait of this party will greatly depend not only on its new rapprochment with the UBSD, but also with social democratic groups from RS, which the Socialist Internationale through the Swedish and German representatives is insisting on again, and which the SDP has so far cleverly avoided.

The Party of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) of RS, contrary to the Socialist Party of RS, has neither the infrastructure (it had nobody to inherit it from) nor known members. Its name is usually connected with that of its president Milorad Dodik, former leader of reformists in his native Laktasi, but it is nevertheless attributed the first public disagreement with the politics of Pale even during the war session of the parliament of RS, when along with another six deputies (at the time known as "the independent seven") he advocated peaceful solution of the B&H conflict. The oppositionist appearances in the B&H parliament and the assembly of RS have promoted, along with Dodik, Branko Dokic and Nenad Bastinac as the key members of this party. Contacts he has established with the alternative of the B&H Federation (Perugia '95) made Dodik known to the international public and along with Miodrag Zivanovic, leader of the Social Liberal Party (SLS) of RS, put him at the focus of the true opposition to the nationalistic position of Pale. In the last local elections this party won in Laktasi and Srbac, and the consistence of this political option, cooperation with related parties from the Federation, but also western Europe, conditioned the obvious ascending line of development of this party. Laktasi and Srbac where it has the greatest impact - and where in the past parliamentary elections in RS it has not only confirmed its popularity but also almost doubled the number of voters - were proclaimed the first open towns of this entity by the SNSD which in this way confirmed its political commitment to cooperation with related parties from the B&H Federation. At the forthcoming Banja Luka gathering, this party, along with the Party of the citizens of Drvar and the SLS, will be the bearer of the project of possible future social democratic association of B&H.

The Union of B&H Social Democrats is travelling to Banja Luka as an unquestioned favourite of the ideal of the need to initiate the integration process of parties of this commitment. From the initiated inter-entity meetings to the joint project of the shadow cabinet, this party has ensured for itself the aura of the forerunner in creation of a united democratic alternative in B&H. In the post-Dayton political developments, from the once anathematized party which "maintains contacts with the aggressor", the UBSD has become a relevant political force in political reintegration of the state, exceptionally highly esteemed by the international community. One could say that drawbacks of the UBSD are the political promotion of only the first two men in the party (Selim Beslagic and Sejfudin Tokic) regardless of their synchronized work and complete absence of mutual competitiveness in leading positions, and territorial foundation of the party mostly in Tuzla and partly in Sarajevo. The political promotion of Slavisa Sucur and Svjetlana Fabjanc, as well as the signed protocol with the Party of the citizens of Drvar (Mile Marceta) on joint activities in Drvar where the latter party has won the elections, could be a good way to overcome the mentioned drawbacks. But, despite the intermunicipal cooperation on the level of the European Charter on local self-administration, activities in the other entity and the oppositionist reputation enjoyed by the UNSD nowadays, this party is vitally interested in the outcome of Banja Luka talks. This is especially true since the split with the SDP, or withdrawal of the SDP from the United List, has shown the balefulness of division of the electorate which does not understand the political nuances of disagreement between these two parties and considers them to be to insignificant to make them choose between the two.

The delicate political situation in which the Banja Luka gathering is held, and some form of "pressure" exerted by the Socialist Internationale on the parties of social democratic ideals, utterly exposes certain undoubted facts to a possible political analyst. The nationalistic concepts are slowly but surely losing ground. The only relevant political force in the opposition, however powerful that opposition may be, is the one formed by the social democratic political force on all levels of the authorities and in the whole of B&H. There will be new elections in this state next year. It is hardly necessary to draw a conclusion, especially not in the name of the social democratic Europe which is increasingly well installed here. The conclusion should be drawn by the "domestic" social democrats: whether it will qualify for what lays ahead both in respect to its organization and activities, for the good of the social democratic ideal itself and for the good of B&H, or "copy" the destiny of the political opposition from the neighbourhood and sink in the Balkan mire, dragging along, for the sake of short-term personal interests or narrow-mindedness, an eminent modern European ideal, a policy which will lead Europe from this millennium into the next.

DRAZENA PERANIC

(AIM Sarajevo)