MOMIR FOR MARCH, MILO FOR MAY

The Timing of the Extraordinary Parliamentary Elections in Montenegro

AIM Podgorica, November 19, 1997

A month after the conclusion of presidential elections in Montenegro, Momir Bulatovic and his followers are not yielding; they stick to their stance presented at the session of the party's Main Board that "the voting results must not be recognized at any cost". However, even to perfunctory analysts of Montenegrin events it is clear that "Bulatovic's men" harbour no illusions as to the possibility of Montenegrin Parliament to meet their demands and declare the presidential elections void. It is crystal clear to everyone that insistence on this grave accusation about rigging of elections is nothing else but an aggressive start of a campaign of that same political group for the forthcoming early parliamentary elections.

Certainly, Momir Bulatovic hoped that pressure exerted by his deputies in Parliament in combination with the constant threat of reactivating street protests, might force parliamentary majority to schedule the elections for the earliest possible date. At least for mid March next year, i.e. two full months earlier than envisaged by the Agreement the opposition signed this summer with the Government and Djukanovic's DPS wing.

However, practically everything indicates that Bulatovic's plans will fail. Apart from his party and the Popular Party of Bozidar Bojovic, all other relevant parties do not want the elections before late May. Some, like Kilibarda's National Party (NS) or SDA even think that the voting should be postponed for the autumn. According to them, it is impossible to have free and democratic elections in a strained and intolerant atmosphere, which resembles the one prevailing before the war which Bulatovic's followers had created by their radical and chauvinistic protest organized after the second round of presidential elections.

It is quite certain that Djukanovic's DPS CG is not considering the postponement either. No one in the ruling party dares say loudly what is clear to everyone - that it would suit the DPS CG very much to delay the holding of parliamentary elections. For, it is realistic to expect that Momir Bulatovic's political strength will diminish with time, especially after the transfer of the presidential "seat", but also that the number of Milo Djukanovic's followers will grow. However, Milica Pejanovic - Djurisic rejects the possibility that the party she is heading might initiate the postponement of parliamentary elections for the autumn. Perhaps the postponement is possible only if all signatories to the Agreement agree to that. However, Miro Vickovic, Director of the Liberal Alliance of Montenegro, was quite definite when he publicly expressed his hope that Milo Djukanovic will not commit a "political suicide" by delaying the parliamentary election for the autumn. With such Liberal attitude every story on the postponement would turn into a first-rate political scandal with, no doubt, harmful consequences for the proponents of this idea.

In his interview to the Podgorica "News" (Vijesti), Slavko Perovic, leader of the Liberals, said that "any stalling with the elections would only cause an even deeper crisis in Montenegro". He also added that "some parties - signatories of the Agreement, secretly hope for the elections never to happen as it is evident that they have a very small number of followers, have vanished or joined other political groups". In this quoted statement of Perovic's his, for the time being, coalition partner Novak Kilibarda can easily recognize himself. There are opposite opinions as to the "political weight" of that part of the National Party which has sided with the eloquent professor. Some think that the split with Bojic's group will end same as the previous ones: Kilibarda will remain on his feet and the "renegades" will fall flat at the elections and end on the margins of the Montenegrin political scene. However, there are quite a lot of those who believe that the "eternal" President of the National Party has been driven into a corner and that his turn towards the center was too strong for this party's predominant rural segment.

A specific confirmation of Kilibarda's mistrust in his own forces has been found in his insistence on the joint participation of the democratic opposition at the early parliamentary elections. Many were more inclined to explain this attitude by the fear of the National's leader from running in the elections alone, than as a result of his political assessment that a coalition would be the most efficient method of breaking Momir Bulatovic's "national communist front". It seems that this is also the way a statement of Zarko Rakcevic, President of the SDP CG, was interpreted: namely, that the "signatories of the Agreement", i.e. the opposition and those authorities which have not discredited themselves, should finish the job they have started and by running in the extraordinary parliamentary elections together "help a healthy and capable newborn see the light of day".

Although Milica Pejanovic - Djurisic claims that the DPS CG has "for the time being" opted to go alone to the parliamentary elections, those well versed are persistently spreading the story about the DPS CG, National Party and the SDP CG coalition. Allegedly, Milo Djukanovic does not want to give up the help of Kilibarda, Soc, Popovic and some other NS deputies who in recent days in the Assembly of Montenegro read a true lecture to the DPS CG deputies on the subject - how to defend reformist ideas and the key protagonist of that option. Naturally, there are some worthy people among the social-democrats and, in addition, last year this party "threw in" some 17 thousand votes, which is more than significant measured by Montenegrin standards.

In any case, it will hard to find out before spring what and whether at all something like that is being negotiated behind the screens. Officially, for the time being, Milica Pejanovic - Djurisic is in favour of her party going to the elections alone so that it can finally be clear "who has more followers, Momir Bulatovic or we".

It seems that the camp of the departing President of the Republic is not much preoccupied with the plans of forming a pre-election coalition. Such a stand is quite logical if we bear in mind that Momir Bulatovic has forced himself upon the people as a sacrosanct leader of the Serbian block in Montenegro. Perhaps Bozidar Bojovic is the only one who might win a significant number of votes from that political group. However, there are slim chances for these votes to be lost as the whole Republic (except for regions which are populated by the Albanian majority) will again form one electoral unit, with a proportionate distribution of mandates. Therefore, a coalition between Bulatovic's DPS and Bojovic's popular wing is possible only after the elections and it seems quite certain, despite the fact that Bozidar Bojovic himself is questionable. Namely, "in principle" he left open a possibility of forming a coalition with all "truly democratic forces" in the Republic.

The so called national parties: SDA, DUA and DS leave little dilemma as to the form of their participation in the elections. In view of the new electoral rules, the SDA can with much certainty count on more deputy seats than it has now. Two parties of the Albanians - the Democratic Union and the Democratic Alliance - shall fight for four mandates (as much as the Agreement envisages for this minority) on the territories of Ulcinj, Tuzi, Malesija and Krajina.

It is generally thought that the forthcoming parliamentary elections will truly be historical and a turning-point for the future of Montenegro. As someone said, they will finally decide whether in two years this Republic will enter the third millennium or will go back to the nineteenth century. To the very last moment everyone will be looking for a winning combination needed to come out victorious from such important elections as these.

Darko Vukovic

AIM Podgorica