TRIUMPH OF BILJANA PLAVSIC

Parliamentary Elections in RS

AIM Banja Luka, 25 November, 1997

According to the unofficial data of the Republican Electoral Commission (RIK), based on counted votes in 45 municipalities, the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) won 31.51 per cent votes, the Serb National Union (SNS) of Biljana Plavsic 21.78 per cent, the Serb Radical Party (SRS) 16.62 per cent, the Socialist Party of RS 12.62 per cent, the Party of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) 4.3 and the Coalition for United B&H 1.38 per cent.

The data which started to arrive from municipalities immediately after counting of votes announced the triumph of the youngest political party - SNS, headed by the President of the the Republic. The SNS ranks first according to the number of votes won in three largest municipalitities in Krajina - Banja Luka (38 per cent), Prijedor (40 per cent), and (Bosanska) Gradiska (34 per cent). In Bijeljina SNS won 17 per cent of the votes, in Doboj 13 per cent, while in other municipalities the number votes won is between five and ten per cent. "We are satisfied with the results because we are among the leading political parties, if not THE leading, in the Serb national corps" declared vice president of the SNS Svetozar Mihajlovic.

The Serb Democratic Party (SDS) continues to manifest the tendency to decline. In relation to last year's parliamentary elections (54 per cent), the SDS lost almost half of its electorate. The SDS won the largest number of votes in eastern part of RS again, and in the three largest municipalities of Posavina - Bijeljina, Brcko and Doboj. In Bijeljina the SDS won 30 per cent, in Brcko 31 and in Doboj 44 per cent of the votes. In Prijedor where in the last elections it had won absolute majority of votes, the SDS now won 25 per cent, and in Gradiska 22 per cent. The worst result of the SDS is the one in Banja Luka - 10.56 per cent.

The Serb Radical Party (SRS), with 16.62 per cent of the total votes won, preserved its electorate from the local elections and improved its total results from the past parliamentary elections (7 per cent). The worst election result of this party is in municipalities of western Krajina. In Banja Luka, the Radicals won 6.41 per cent, in Prijedor 12 per cent, and in Gradiska 4.4 per cent of the votes. About 25 per cent of the votes were won by the Radicals in Bijeljina, Brcko, Doboj and municipalities in eastern RS. In the statement issued by this party for the public after publication of preliminary results, it is claimed that results of local elections were confirmed and satisfaction is stressed because of the improved election results in Banja Luka (about 2 per cent). Nikola Poplasen, president of SRS, declared to the journalists in Bijeljina (before the statement of the Republican Electoral Commission) that the SRS had won 25 per cent of the total number of votes and that it expected 15 deputy seats in the parliament.

The Socialists have "fallen" in relation to the results of last year's parliamentary elections (15.6 per cent) by three per cent. It is assessed that they have lost about 15 thousand voters in these elections. The Socialists believe that majority of their sympathizers are among abstainees, and there were more than 30 per cent of them in these elections. Surprisingly, this time the abstainees are voters from Krajina municipalities where the demand for changes and where the wave of democratization originated.

The Serb Party of Krajina and Posavina (SSKiP) was beaten hollow. The triumph in local elections in Banja Luka (19 per cent) and in several Krajina municipalities disappeared in only two months. In Banja Luka, only 3,457 (4.37 per cent) voters voted for SSKiP, and in other municipalities the number of votes won is even smaller. The assessments that followers of Biljana Plavsic (whose party had not participated in the elections) have voted for this party in local elections proved to be correct. Unnecessary scheming of leaders of this party about the election of the mayor of Banja Luka certainly contributed to the defeat of this party. In a few television appearances after local elections, leaders of SSKiP enjoyed haggling with the Socialists and proved that they had not much talent for political pragmatism.

Among the rest of the parties, mostly of local and regional significance, only the Party of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) of Milorad Dodik had certain success. According to the data of its election headquarters, this party won the total of 20,050 votes, most of them in Laktasi (5,648), Banja Luka (7,660), Gradiska (1,819) and Prijedor (1,488). This could ensure three deputy seats in the parlimenat for it. After winning absolute majority in local elections in two municipalities (Laktasi and Srbac) and the 4.3 per cent of the votes won now, the SDSM is showing progress with good prospects to become a party of the future.

Since RS is a single electoral district, the number of votes needed for a single deputy seat in the parliament will be determined by dividing the total number of voters with the number of deputies in the parliament (83). The number of voters who have voted has not yet been publicized, so that the number of votes needed to enter the parliament is also not known yet.

There is a slight curiosity of these elections - that the exact number of registered voters in RS has not been made public. The OSCE spokesman in Banja Luka declared that the OSCE did not have the precise datum, but that it was assessed to be about one million. A day before the elections, Nedjo Draskovic, president of the Republical Electoral Commission, declared that 1,147,906 voters had been registered for the parliamentary elections. In today's statement, the Commission claims that 580 thousand voters have voted and that response amounts to 68 per cent which does not correspond to the published datum about the number of registered voters.

According to the statement of the RIK, results of voting from 16 municipalities for which the ballots have not yet been counted will not significantly change the publicized results. That is why it is possible to make evaluations about the composition of the future parliament of RS. What is quite clear already is that none of the parties will have absolute majortity in the parliament. The two coalition partners in the previous parliament, the SDS and the SRS, will not have the majority either (total 48 per cent). However, the other opposition parties (SNS, SP RS, SNDS) have not won more than half of deputy seats (38.6 per cent) either. The votes from abroad may tip the balance, but most probably the votes of the parties from B&H Federation will be decisive for parliamentary decision-making. It is hard to believe that there will be open coalitions with them, but that too is possible.

Svetozar Mihajlovic, vice-president of SNS, announced the possibility of a coalition with parties which had offered support to president Biljana Plavsis, which would mean gathering of all parliamentary parties from RS against the coalition of SDS and the Radicals. This logical option would question the attitude of official Belgrade towards Biljana Plavsic and the opposition in RS which was made topical by the recent incident on the occasion of opening of the Banja Luka airport. Cancelling of the agreed flight of JAT from Belgrade was interpreted by Biljana Plavsic as a plan of Belgrade and Pale to have only a plane from Sarajevo with the state delegation of B&H Federation land in Banja Luka, in order to discredit her policy and the program of her party at the height of the election campaign. Sources close to the leadership of the Socialist party of Serbia claim that a plan exists, in the background of which is Slobodan Milosevic, according to which the Socialists would enter the coalition with the SDS and the Radicals and in this way achieve national parliamentary majority and minimize the influence of Biljana Plavsic and the parties from B&H Federation. It should not be forgotten that a similar agreement was made by the Socialists after the local elections for municipalities in which the SDS and the Radicals failed to win the majority due to success of the parties from the Federation.

The organizer (OSCE) of the elections can be satisfied with good organization and success of the elections. This opinion is shared by representatives of political parties. Criticism could be heard only from the SDS and state officials from Pale who qualified the elections as imposed on them (Krajisnik) and contrary to Belgrade agreement of Milosevic - Plavsic - Krajisnik, according to which the presidential elections should have been simultaneously organized, and pursuant regulations of RS.

Branko Peric