THE SECOND DEATH OF BRANIMIR GLAVAS

AIM Zagreb, 9 November, 1997

At the headquarters of the Osijek-Baranja district prefect, Branimir Glavas, last Tuesday evening, a bottle of champagne was opened prematurely again. News had arrived by telephone from Zagreb that the high court of honour of the Croat Democratic Party (HDZ) charged to pronounce a disciplinary measure against the disobedient former prefect, had been exceptionally lenient. Glavas got away with the smallest possible punishment - he was just reprimanded. Glas Slavonije, the Osijek daily which is, because of Glavas's departure from the post of the district prefect in the past few weeks struck by utter consternation, because it is clear that the collapse of Glavas's pillars of power will drag along the "cadre" in this newspaper, carried with great relief on the top of the internal policy page the news that "Glavas (was) returned to all party duties". "In view of the fact that according to the HDZ statute, the reprimand is the mildest disciplinary measure which the high court of honour can pronounce to a member of the party, Glavas who was recently removed from all party duties, is returning to his former party duties, among other to the post of the president of the district committee of HDZ", it was stated in the article in Glas on Thursday.

However, on Saturday evening, Croatian Television published a somewhat "supplemented" piece of news. In the statement from the session of the HDZ presidency chaired by president Tudjman, in the part which refers to Glavas's case, the following was said: "Concerning internal party elections and the 4th general convention of the HDZ, the presidency reached the necessary decision. It discussed the appeal against the decision of the high court of honour in the disciplinary proceedings against Branimir Glavas. Pursuant the HDZ statute, the presidency, along with the pronounced measure of reprimand, adopted the measure of dismissal from all duties in the party for the period of one year".

That opening of the bottle of champagne on Tuesday evening was more than premature, was clear to those well-informed already on Thursday. That is when the high court of honour of the HDZ, at a single snap of the "boss's" fingers, met again to reconsider its decision. Two members of the high court (Adam Mestrovic, Vera Turic) - it leaked from HDZ circles - persisted in their previous decision, two members were against, and two were absent from the session. Allegedly Tudjman then angrily sent word to the members of the high court of honour that their role might also be reconsidered, and on Saturday, it was decided that despite the reprimand Glavas would be removed from the party, against which he desperately fought against aware that it was his last straw in order to remain politically alive.

Return of Glavas to party duties and the mildest measure the high court of honour could pronounce obviously did not suit Tudjman. Because, the outcome of the struggle between the right radicals and the moderates within the leadership of his party, which will reach its climax on the eve of the February 4th general convention of the party, would have been known in advance if Glavas had continued to discharge his party duties in the HDZ. There is no doubt that, with the help of Vladimir Seks, the former district prefect in Slavonia would have managed to push through men devoted to these two whose votes, after a good preparation, could have carried out a coup at internal party elections. Tudjman already has experience with Glavas's appearances at the last general convention, when only by investing his entire personal authority, he managed to prevent immoderate cadre demands of the rightists, as Glavas had insisted on.

Now he has neutralized him all in good time, and in this way significantly weakened Seks as well, along with the whole right faction of the party for which Glavas had always acted as spokesman. As concerning reactions of Glavas's supporters, Tudjman could always explain this step as a result of pressure of the international community which would not at all be happy if Glavas continued to weave the political network around Slavonia. That concerning Glavas a concensus was reached by the two most powerful men in Croatia - Tudjman and Gojko Susak - became evident after the recent interview given by the just recovered from illness Croatian minister of defence to the daily Vecernji list. Susak who was believed to be one of the main Glavas's protectors quite sharply spoke about Glavas's disobedience to prime minister Zlatko Matesa, saying that a government official (Glavas) could not order about his superior (Matesa). He also explicitly added that he had no intention to put up with similar Glavas' mischief now that Glavas, by Tudjman's order, was put under command of minister Susak, and the main inspectorate of the Croatian army.

Nevertheless, Glavas hoped that "with a little help of his friends" he would survive in the party thanks to the symbolic punishment pronounced by the high court of honour. It would have been a position from which he would have been able to continue to control the entire district, because Anica Horvat, his successor, in the political life of what was until recently Glavas's feudal tenure, means absolutely nothing. The policy guided by the slogan "even after Glavas, Glavas" also suited his close associates, who the former district prefect had carefully deployed in all the points of power. Even some media inclined towards Glavas (Vjesnik) praised Glavas's sensible behavior after he had heard the first decision of the Presidency of HDZ when it had been just announced what was confirmed on Saturday - his elimination from the party life.

It is interesting that by a combination of circumstances, in the week which preceded the final decision on removing Glavas from party posts, two interviews appeared in public - that of Josip Manolic, once "second man" in Croatia and Jacques Paul Klein, until recently the transitional administrator of UNTAES - in which very interesting observations about the former Osijek district prefect were presented. Manolic who is lately using every opportunity to openly praise Tudjman, presented a very interesting statement about Branimir Glavas, his bitter political enemy. "I have never considered Glavas a politician. >From the very beginning he was just an ordinary bully who has abused certain circumstances in order to usurp power. The list of his stupid moves is almost endless, and I just wish to underline once again his wish to dissolve the HDZ organization in Osjek towards the end of 1991, that is, in the middle of the war, which could have had grave consequences for organization of defence of Slavonia. But, the state leadership, just like in the Gospic case, did not have the strength to square accounts to the end with Glavas, and the problem was reduced to mild criticism of his behavior. Politically, his departure is insignificant, because the HDZ has overcome the phase in which people like Glavas could affect the party policy", said Manolic.

Manolic's evaluation about the "almost endless list" of Glavas' "stupid moves" was supplemented in his interview for Globus by general Jacques Klein. "Mildly speaking, district prefect Glavas was of no use. The task of reintegration is to avoid all kinds of victims, to reintegrate this region with no loss of human lives. Contrary to that, via state media and in other ways, efforts were undermined, so that I was forced to ask Zagreb who represented it, some local politician or those from the highest post I negotiated with. Whoever is pursuing policy towards eastern Slavonia - Osijek or Zagreb - was the question which dragged along for a long time. Fortunately, besides the people who undermined the job there were people like Vrkic, who were ready to cooperate".

The remarkable Klein's comparison of Glavas ("he was of no use") with Vrkic ("ready for cooperation") opens new speculations about who will actually be Glavas's successor. It is known that Glavas, immediately after submittinng resignation at the post of the district prefect, in circles of his supporters, immenseley bragged that Anica Horvat was his choice and that he would "rather kill himself than have Vrkic come to this post". In the past few weeks it is possible to hear in Osijek that Anica Horvat is just a transitional solution and that it should be expected that at the latest by the HDZ internal party elections, this post will be taken over by Ivica Vrkic. This moderate and reasonable politician who has done the most difficult part of the reintegration job, seems to be the most benevolent solution if Croatia really wishes, after the end of UNTAES mandate on 15 January, 1998, to get rid of the announced international monitoring which will remain in the region of the Danube valley region.

As opposed to Glavas, the Serbs accept Vrkic, because he has never made extremist statements, nor has he promised what he knew he would not be able to carry out. But, Vrkic is too experienced not to be aware that his coming to Glavas's post without removal of the strongest pillars of power of the former district prefect would be a completely futile job. That is why definite removal of Glavas from all party posts is undoubtedly also the beginning of removal of men devoted to him and preparation of the ground for the arrival of a new team which will be able to implement a reasonable and realistic policy in Podunavlje. For a few days already rumour goes about removal of the Osijek chief of police, Dubravko Jezercic, Glavas's best man, which could, mark the beginning of dismantling Glavas's administration, a process which is the preparation of the ground for Vrkic's taking over the post. Regardless of who will actually replace Glavas and how long the person he had chosen - Anica Horvat - will remain at the post of the Osijek-Baranja district prefect, it is quite certain that Glavas's political end is inevitably tearing down the firm pyramid of power which, during the five years of rule

• it seemed - he had managed to construct as an impregnable fortress.

DRAGO HEDL