CHANGE OF CADRE IN THE HDZ B&H

Under Pressure Exerted by the USA

AIM Sarajevo, 24 October, 1997

The long announced and expected, "spring cleaning" of hard-core faction of the HDZ has begun, as well as redirection of the policy of this party, at least as concerning Bosnia & Herzegovina and implementation of the Dayton accords. As it was possible to anticipate, the change of course has started from the very top of the party, from the neighbouring state of Croatia and its president Franjo Tudjman.

Having found themselves under great pressure exerted primarily by the American administration, Croatian politicians, headed by Tudjman, have in the past period manifested a high level of good will both for cooperation with the Hague Tribunal and resoluteness to finally deal with the forces within HDZ B&H which have so far slowed down and prevented implementation of the Dayton accords and the beginning of operation of the Federation. The father of the nation, as Franjo Tudjman is usually called, by hook or by crook, finally made a few steps which significantly impressed the international community. This brought him a number of points, very important for reinforcing the position of Croatia in the world, for its reputation and prosperity. All the shifts made in the direction of consolidation of peace and construction of B&H and the Federation, however, do not automatically mean Tudjman's disassociation from the Herzegovina political lobby and the end of his influence on the policy pursued by HDZ cadre in the Federation and B&H. For the sake of peace in the house, because of the headache lately given to him by hard-core members, Tudjman was forced to give up on some of the party leaders.

Hardly anyone could have expected that Croatia would in a single day extradite ten indicted men for war crimes to the Hague Tribunal, and among them members of the so-called "Group of Knights" headed by Dario Kordic. It was even less probable that all these men concealed from the public for so long, like Kordic, would go to the Hague of their own free will. What have Croatia, Tudjman and all the other politicians from the ranks of the Croatian people promised, warranteed them, it is hard to claim. However, it is also a fact that they were seen off from the Split airport with the highest honours and almost like heroes. Of course, it is an unquestioned fact that nobody is guilty until guilt is proved, but the public greatly reproached some politicians, president of B&H Federation Vladimir Soljic inclusive, for having gone to see off the indicted men for war crimes.

Not concealing a long friendship with Santic, one of the indicted, Soljic explained his presence at the send-off as a private act. The need for an additional explanation to the public appeared because of his relative from Bugojno with the same name and family name, because of whom he is often reproached for belonging to the hard-core faction of the HDZ, but also for political dependence on official Zagreb. Without denying connections and closeness of Zagreb, at the latest press conference in Sarajevo, Soljic declared that Croat leaders in the Federation and B&H do not go, as reproached, for their opinion to Zagreb. As he said, they were not anybody's branch office, unable to reach certain decisions on their own.

There is some truth in the declaration, because Croat representatives in the authorities of the Federation and B&H do not go to Tudjman when they please, but only when he calls them. One of the latest meetings, according to official information, was convened recently for president of HDZ B&H Bozo Rajic and Kresimir Zubak, member of B&H Presidency. The outcome of this meeting could be replacement of Rajic who was reproached for not having done enough in preparation and organization of the elections in Mostar when HDZ had not triumphed as expected. Along with Rajic's departure from the political scene, Ivan Bender and Srecko Vucina would highly probably have to leave too, and the name of Ivo Lozancic is also mentioned, and even that of Jadranko Prlic.

As concerning Prlic's position, there are plenty of controversial information in the public. More precisely, Croat weekly Nacional carried the information about the possibility of his succeeding Rajic at the post of the president of the party. Prlic himself denied this possibility. However, anything is possible in politics, especially if it is a wish of the USA which will regardless of everything bear in mind Prlic's cooperativeness in implementation of the Dayton peace accords. In other words, they will quite certainly insist and persist in the demand that at least men who had once conspired with Tudjman about secession of Herzeg Bosna and its annexation to Croatia leave the Croat political scene. The list of these men is quite long and mostly known to the public, and some of them have already, like Boban abnd Kordic, paid their debt.

In any case, the policy of the HDZ is slowly but surely taken over by persons who are on the course of implementation of the Washington and the Dayton agreements, cadre like Zubak, Bilandzija, Tadic, who are not closely linked to the Herzegovina political lobby, but who do not skip Mostar in reaching all significant decision, since the centre of party decision-making has been moved from Sarajevo, where HDZ B&H was founded, to Mostar due to the increasing impact of the politicians from Herzegovina, but with due support of Zagreb, of course. That is how both HDZ members from Sarajevo, but also those from central Bosnia have ended up on the margins of developments, or one might say in disfavour. Of course, after all the former cadre changes which have occurred lately, including the announced resignations and replacements in Herzeg-Bosnian canton, of Filip Andric, Branko Antunovic, Jozo Ursa, Mirko Mihaljevic, Mirko Bakovic, and those which will follow, it is evident that new winds are blowing from the direction of Zagreb and Herzegovina. In any case, they could prove to be good for the B&H Federation and Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Of course, to expect that drastic and sudden replacements of the leading men in HDZ could take place overnight, especially since some of them hold quite high posts in the authorities, would be naive. The process of changing the profile of the party is guided systematically, especially since certain changes had been expected to take place during the past summer. However, it would have been disastrous for the party in general if all that dust would have been kicked up just before the local, municipal elections. The best example for that was the recent replacement of Mijo Brajkovic from the post of the prime minister of Herzeg-Bosnian canton. The leadership of the HDZ had given up on Brajkovic back at the time of the last elections in Mostar and announced his departure from the party, but until just recently did not take any specific steps about it.

Whether a member of the party or not, Brajkovic was not given up on by the president of the Federation, the man who at the moment holds a very firm political position, who will nominate him the advisor for economic relations with the Republic of Croatia. If not officially because of the possible disagreement of the partners in power, most probably a personal advisor. The HDZ cadre explain changes in the party as a normal, democratic act, and even point out overwhelming fatigue of the men at certain posts as the pretext. It is a fact, however, that the changes would not have been so sudden if they had not been initiated in Zagreb. Not so much because of the wish to finally disassociate themselves from those who have done their best to prevent the Federation from becoming operational and who have caused so much concern and problems to Tudjman and Croatia, but in order to create the illusion of good cooperation with the international comunity.

The current fluctuations on the political scene of Croatia speak in favour of this, especially those about revival of the idea of confederation of Croatia and B&H Federation. Without going into details and without analyzing the background of the mentioned idea, its stronghold, legal and actual possibilities, revival of this idea can be interpreted as a public signal of the Croatian official policy that regardless of the necessity of changes which have either already happened or which will happen in the party and the political scene of the Federation and B&H, there will in fact be no significant deviations from the former course of Zagreb and Tudjman's policy.

Mirjana MICEVSKA

(AIM Sarajevo)