BIG POLITICS - LITTLE ELECTIONS

Belgrade - Washington - Banja Luka

Slobodan Milosevic has made in clear that he would support President of Republic of Srpska (RS) Biljana Plavsic, who as if unaware of what it was all about, responded that he was a "great politician". Momcilo Krajisnik returned to Pale to consolidate his forces. The pre-election competition is getting into full swing.

AIM Banja Luka, 28 October, 1997

Cathy Marton was the one who bore good tidings. She descended from Dedinje, where Milosevic resides (on 17 October, 1997) and smiling, happy and satisfied, was the first to inform the world that Slobodan Milosevic "supports Biljana Plavsic and believes that Krajisnik should leave". Her husband, Richard Holbrooke had a much more difficult time reaching such spectacular results. In order to offer the charming Cathy the "full impression", she was offered "obvious evidence" about it, such as: "Milosevic spoke with the President of RS by phone during our meeting". For our taste a little bit too "obvious", but judging by the reaction of Cathy Marton, that is how the Americans like it. But, to make things quite clear, Cathy Marton is not just anybody, and not just because she is dealing with Bosnia in a family manufacture with the "father of the Dayton accords" , but maybe even more because she has arrived here in the capacity of the president of the American Committee for Protection of Journalists. That is why it can be said that Milosevic has chosen a powerful media for sending his message.

Anthony Lewis is not just anybody either. The famous commentator of the New York Times who is considered by the Serbs to be one of the most influential bearers of anti-Serb campaign in the American public, visited the President of FRY for two hours. "'It is necessary that Krajisnik leave', Milosevic told me on the topic how the Dayton accords could be implemented".

Continuation of this spectacular statement is not as spectacular as could have been expected by those who think that everything could be resolved in Bosnia by redistribution of new cadre at various posts. At the same time, there is no doubt that Milosevic's words are not as down-to-earth and direct as Biljana Plavsic has been trying to interpret them for practical daily needs. She has not "understood very well", but she claims that Milosevic meant that Krajisnik should leave just the post of the president of the management board of Serb Radio-Television (SRT). Only Milosevic knows what he actually meant, but Anthony Lewis noted that Krajisnik's replacement "should take place through elections, as a result of gradual change of attitude, and not of pressure from without".

Angels and Scoundrels

Another known journalist of the New York Times, David Binder, who has quite the contrary reputation of that of Lewis when interpretation of the Yugoslav conflicts is concerned, also appeared in Belgrade. He assesses that Clinton's administration has in the past three months "transformed NATO forces in Bosnia & Herzegovina called stabilization forces (SFOR) into occupation authorities in the Serb part of the country". Binder sees elements for this stand in the fact that the Americans "call the unbending Serb politicians scoundrels" which is a specific criminalization of the elected representatives of a nation, but also that seizure of four SRT tv towers on 1 October met with "quite favourable reactions of the American press inclined towards the administration (despite the fact that such actions would have been considered as non-American had they been taken in America)".

It seems that faced with the big job of establishing the new world order, the Americans do not know any more what the "American approach" is, or rather it is becoming obvious that principles are changing and that a new code of the American approach is emerging. Unfortunately, an important testing ground for this big job is and will be Bosnia and all of us around it. The new NATO image is being outlined in Bosnia, new directions of development of American foreign policy are being designed here.

The recent sharp polemic in the Foreign Affairs magazine about Bosnia is much more than a simple sharpening of the minds among intellectuals. Henry Kisinger heads those who believe that such "American engagement in Bosnia will inevitably be a failure". On the other hand are Richard Holbrooke and American advisor for national security Samuel Berger. Of course, such discussions in favour of "united" or "Bosnia of three parts" are neither emotional, nor do they have heart-breaking humanistic background even in traces, nor are Bosnia, and the Bosniacs, the Serbs and the Croats their priority. This is a projection of American world policy. That is how the topic expanded to include "confederation of Russia" and geo-strategic establishment of Euro-Asia.

Mister President and Lady President

The forthcoming elections in RS are therefore a screw in a future mechanism which will determine the role of a super-power in the modern world. That is why the Serb political players are receiving due attention again. And the inevitable Robert Gelbard is arriving again.

Koordinatorima takve vrste sve je teºe jer se usloºnjava i srpsko-jugoslovenska politička scena. U izmjenjenim ulogama nekako u ne baþ velikom roku, pojavili su se Milo Ðukanoviå, Vojislav µeþelj i Biljana Plavþiå. U nekom smislu se mijenja i uloga Slobodana Miloþeviåa.

Coordinators of this kind are having an increasingly difficult time, because the Serb-Yugoslav political scene is becoming increasingly more complex. Milo Djukanovic, Vojislav Seselj and Biljana Plavsic appeared in changed roles in just a short while. The role of Slobodan Milosevic is also changing in a certain sense.

President Plavsic has obviously accepted new rules. After a serious estrangement with Milosevic, followed by a slight rapprochement, a few days ago she has reached the conclusion that "Milosevic is a great politician" again. She surely knows what made her reach that conclusion.

Nothing would suit the lady President better than if, say, President of FRY paid a visit to her Republic, that is, in the next few months it would mean more to her if Slobodan Milosevic stopped by to have coffee with her than if Madeleine Albright made her a blood sister. And nobody knows better than she does how difficult it is to work with the Americans when they are helping you. Their refinement is at times completely unadapted to the circumstances in the Balkans. For example, just a day after extradition of the ten odd warriors to the Hague, Franjo Tudjman got the second tranche of the IMF loan. This resembled a bargain - ten national heroes for a handful of dollars - to such an extent that the Croat father of the nation had to refuse the loan.

In this turmoil, Milosevic's reproaches of Clinton's administration published in the New York Times does not sound as provocative and challenging "the lion in his sleep" like before. Because he is now offering evidence for resolution of the "Serb issue", but says that the stick is not a very good way to do it. "It is a big mistake to keep us under sanctions. I told Gelbard that this would just help Seselj, and that is what has actually happened."

At the same time, it is becoming quite clear now that the present and the future of FRY is directly linked to actions of the Bosnian Serbs. And there is no way FRY can free itself from this embrace. Even if the Americans do not know exactly what the destiny of Bosnia is, it is certain that Bosnia is the fate of FRY for an indefinite time. More fate than an instrument for manipulation.

Therefore, even if everything worked out according to the orders issued by the American political officials, including the independent OSCE, probable results of the elections in RS cannot bring a solution of the Bosnian riddle. The only thing that is certain is that the so far omnipotent Serb Democratic Party will be dethroned, which is in itself a big accomplishment.

Petar Reljic