SERBIA WITHOUT A PRESIDENT - FOR THE SECOND TIME?

In Serbia New Presidential Elections Scheduled for 7 December

In the first round, citizens of Serbia have not elected the president, and all things considered they will not be more successful in the repeated presidential elections. However, going to the polls is scheduled for 7 December, and according to many analysts it is more realistic to expect Santa Clause than a new head of the Republic

AIM Belgrade, 29 October, 1997

The struggle for the post of the first man of Serbia will be fought among known candidates: Vojislav Seselj (Serb Radical Party-SRS), Vuk Draskovic (Serb Revival Movement-SPO) and Milan Milutinovic (federal foreign minister and favourite of the left coalition. The others, if any, will enter the race just in order to get a few ten thousand dinars they are entitled to on account of regularly registered candidacy with ten thousand signatures of support.

Until the moment when the elections were scheduled, it had been believed that the Socialists would again rely on Zoran Lilic. They too had been convinced in it before Slobodan Milosevic told them at the session of the Main Board that their presidential candidate would be Milan Milutinovic. Nobody had a comment at the session. They saved their surprise for a more intimate atmosphere, similarly as Milutinovic himself. Belgrade press, referring to high sources from the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), stated that Lilic had at the minute to twelve refused to participate in the new elections. His conditions in order to change his mind were relieving Gorica Gajevic, secretary general of the party, and Dragoljub Milanovic, Editor-in-Chief of Radio-Television Serbia, of duty, allegedly because they had not supported him wholeheartedly enough in the previous campaign.

Scheduling of new presidential elections in Serbia remained in the shadow of hot election results in Montenegro. But, regardless of this factor, the impression is that there is no great excitement because of the forthcoming elections. That is why the possible insufficient number of voters at the polls is mentioned as the most frequent argument in favour of the thesis that voting will be unsuccessful again. (According to the Republican regulations it is necessary that half of the electorate plus one citizen vote in both rounds of the elections).

The leader of the Radicals has the best starting position in the presidential race. He ended up in the past elections ahead of the protege of the left alliance. Scared of his surprising success, many already see Seselj in the armchair of the president of Serbia. Speculations that indeed speak in favour of this are that this would be the most convenient for Milosevic, as a counter-balance to Milo Djukanovic in Montenegro.

This fear caused wavering of some parties which boycotted parliamentary and presidential elections, so they set out in search for a potential presidential candidate. The first news about it arrived from the Civic Alliance of Serbia, while the Democratic Party says that it will not give up the boycott, and it did not even occur to the Democrats of Vojislav Kostunica to change their mind. The other minor parties keep repeating that the opposition needs a single joint candidate.

President of the Democratic Centre, Dragoljub Micunovic, indicated through his local committees that he was a possible candidate. It is not impossible that Milutinovic himself will be the reason for Micunovic to forget about the boycott, because he has never forgiven Milutinovic execution of a few professors of Belgrade University in the seventies, himself inclusive.

Parties which have the strongest candidates have not started their campaign yet. They have first waited for the others to state their trump card. The reason for the short election fever will certainly, among other, be reduced party budgets. While Milutinovic and Seselj have not made a major statement yet, Draskovic's headquarters are announcing that he would replace his "American" campaign with a "true European".

All serious analysts do not doubt that the race for the first man in Serbia will end in the first round. Candidates for the second round, according to many opinions will again be proteges of the SPS and SRS. Among members of the left coalition it is possible to hear that Milutinovic is a strong candidate, primarily since he is running from the post of the foreign minister and that he is not weaker than Lilic. Different opinions, however, show that he has not made a favourable impression on the citizens of Serbia. That is why it is not realistic to expect that he will at least repeat the number of votes won by the previous candidate.

On the other hand, Seselj is entering the race with a psychological advantage and all chances are this time on his side. If the leader of the Radicals succeeds to bring the majority of the citizens of Serbia to vote in both rounds, it still does not mean that he will come out a winner. Contrary to the Socialists, the Serb Radical Party is still not so well organized to be able to control successfully voting at all polling stations, especially not in Kosovo. Like in the previous elections, uncontrolled polls may cost Seselj his victory, even if the majority actually circles his name on the ballots.

While Milosevic is in Serbia, it should never be disregarded that the point from which political developments are observed and directed is his position. Therefore, from that point of view, does Milosevic need anybody at the head of the Republic if that man can by no means be his best or at least close friend?

When the economic situation in the Republic is analyzed, it becomes clear at the very first sight that it is not at all promising, especially in the light of international relations. On the other hand, distribution of forces in the parliament implies that a coalition either with the Radicals of the SPO is inevitable, if not even with both.

Constituting a government in such company imposes the necessity that he give up at least some of the key pillars of power: media, finances or the police. If he cannot avoid it, Milosevic certainly can postpone it.

Even if he obeys the legal procedure, constitution of the Republican parliament need not be a great problem for him. But, formation of the government is not limited in time, so he can postpone it. If Serbia remains without a president in the forthcoming elections, it could mean that there will be noone to nominate the mandatary of the government. In case that happens, the old government continues to act until the new one is elected and Mirko Marjanovic, with the verified team, will continue to carry out all important state affairs.

If an adequate president is not elected, Milosevic's stop-watch will start ticking again, and until the next elections, probably in March next year, he gains time. He still has the possibility to change the law on the president and possibly improve conditions for the victory of his protege. In any case, he gains time in which he can try to regroup his forces, and even schedule new parliamentary elections, perhaps even on all levels.

In that period of time, it is also possible that Milosevic might try to play the game of exhaustion with his political opponents. Postponement of the job of constitution of the government cannot make either Seselj or Draskovic happy. By keeping them in the conviction that an agreement may be reached at any time, he might try to lower their price. For the one who will be the first to accept to bargain, he will probably have the post of the chairman of the Assembly who will, in the capacity of acting president of the Republic, nominate the candidate for prime minister.

All these options in fact are nothing but playing with fire, and even for Milosevic cannot be the matter of his choice but of a necessary evil. It seems that this is how it will be in Serbia until he is the main negotiator.

Vesna Vujic

(AIM)