DJUKANOVIC PRESIDENT OF MONTENEGRO

Outcome of Presidential Elections in Montenegro

AIM Podgorica, 21 October, 1997

Some thirty hours after the second round of presidential elections, the Republican electoral commission still has not officially proclaimed the winner, but there is no doubt: the new president of Montenegro is Milo Djukanovic. On Monday, 20 October, just before dawn, the sky above Podgorica was ripped by triumphant fireworks organized by Djukanovic's supporters. Some time later, with statement about preliminary results, TV Montenegro and Milica Pejanovic-Djurisic, president of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), addressed the public, declaring that the "citizens of Montenegro chose democracy and better living". As of that moment, celebration began in all the cities and towns in Montenegro. Columns of cars decorated with Montenegrin flags and photos of Milo Djukanovic circled around Podgorica, and thousands of citizens - mostly young people - were merry making in the streets of the capital.

On Monday evening the Republican electoral commission stated the results of the second round of presidential elections based on the counted 99.65 per cent of the ballots. According to this report, Djukanovic won 174,176, and Momir Bulatovic 168,864 votes, although the spokesman of the commission mentioned that these were still not official results. On that same day, in "Gorica" villa, Djukanovic made his first statement in the capacity of the president of Montenegro. "I am very satisfied that majority of the citizens of Montenegro have gathered around a positive cause and policy which is entirely devoted to good deeds and creation of a new quality of life, instead of creating enemies, dangerous quarrels, divisions and spreading untruth", said Djukanovic stressing his conviction that policy which was "oriented towards the good and prosperity of Montenegro and FRY" had won.

By winning in the second round of presidential elections, Djukanovic managed to make a similar shift as in the previous squaring of accounts between Bulatovic and himself within the ruling party. At the time, in the beginning of the conflict in March this year, Bulatovic had an advantage within the Main Board, but afterwards Djukanovic managed to win over two-thirds majority in the highest party body. In the presidential competition, Bulatovic had gained advantage in the "first half", but Djukanovic, in cooperation with the democratic parliamentary opposition, managed to make up for the deficiency in the first round and beat the former president of Montenegro by about 5,500 votes. Besides, Djukanovic's supporters, assisted by activists of the democratic opposition managed to motivate the citizens to vote in great numbers. Therefore, in the second round of presidential elections, 346,414 voters, or over 75 per cent of those registered in the electoral register actually came to the polls. A fortnight ago, only 311,118 grown-up citizens of Montenegro had voted.

At first sight, the results which have just come in, appear to be similar to those of 5 October: both Bulatovic and Djukanovic renewed victories in almost all the municipalities. The exception is Niksic, where in the first round Bulatovic had won by meagre 400 votes, while now Djukanovic "conquered" this city beating his rival by 1,656 votes. Apart from the victory in his native Niksic, in other municipalities where he had won in the first round, Djukanovic improved his advantages, while in Podgorica, where he had lost in the first round by almost seven thousand votes, he now cut this Bulatovic's advantage in half. The former president of Montenegro suffered shipwreck in the ethnically mixed environments and the centre of Montenegrin statehood - in Cetinje. Out of 13 thousand voters in Cetinje who had gone to the polls, Djukanovic won with a difference of 8,500 votes. In Bar, Djukanovic won two times more than his opponent, and similar was the case with Rozaje: the first time the difference was 9,097, and the second time 10 and a half thousand more in favour of Djukanovic. Somewhat smaller but still convincing, was Djukanovic's victory in Kotor, Ulcinj, Plav and Tivat.

Bulatovic's hope that reinforced by the votes of Novica Stanic and Acim Visnjic, he would manage to beat Djukanovic, obviously was not founded: in Berane Djukanovic managed to reduce the difference, as well as in Bijelo Polje, despite great engagement of pro-Serb oriented Bulatovic's supporters. As expected, Bulatovic registered best results in Pljevlje (16,471 of his as opposed to 6,803 Djukanovic's), town on the border with Bosnia, where atrocities of the war were most painfully reflected. But, if such a result could be expected in Pljevlje, Djukanovic should certainly be worried by his defeat in Herceg-Novi, the former "Mediterranean flower of the Adriatic". Citizens of Herceg-Novi gave five thousand more votes to Bulatovic than to his opponent.

Obviously both candidates invested all available forces to dig up every potential vote, and although nobody can say that Djukanovic has won in a landslide (the difference is only several thousand votes), this is the result of the fact that he had entered the competition with a significant advantage. He had two thousand votes of his own in reserve and justifiably counted on another ten thousand votes of the candidates from the "Serb block".

Djukanovic has managed to win almost 30 thousand new voters in the second round. After the failure in the first round the Montenegrin prime minister introduced new order in his election headquarters. Instead of the glamorous campaign, stress was put on work with local activists and citizens, in accordance with the rule "from house to house". According to confirmed information, in just ten days they toured all parts of Montenegro, but especially the suburbs and villages. Results show that Djukanovic has managed to win over a certain number of voters in this way.

Except for the work in the "field" and with young people in order to stimulate them to vote, Djukanovic also considerably gained in strength by TV duels. Bulatovic's nationalistic messages, discrimination of the Muslims, the Albanians and the Croats, undoubted attachment to Milosevic, but also involvement of his family in criminal activities completely unmasked the man who until recently presented himself as the president of all citizens of Montenegro and as a personification of a moral and impeccably pure man. Bulatovic's xenophobic ideas may not have discouraged Bulatovic's loyal supporters, but forced many young people to oppose further humiliation of Montenegro, to look upon these elections as "crucial", and to vote for their future.

In the zeal of the struggle against Bulatovic, the government of Montenegro and all relevant institutions - inclined towards Djukanovic - did another important job: completed the electoral register. When the deceased voters were subtracted from the voters who have in the meantime come of age - it turned out that the electorate was increased by 7,805 alive, mostly young voters. Voting at two or more polls was prevented: everybody who voted had to sign their names. All these data lead to the conclusion that only these years' elections in Montenegro have opened the road to creation of true democratic conditions. While DPS was united, while they had absolute power, leaders of the ruling party could, thanks to the electoral register, manipulate endlessly. Perhaps that was the greatest success of the just completed elections: the era of absolute domination and unrestrained power of a single party has come to its end. Djukanovic and his supporters will be closely watched by the opposition and the public - forced to respect the law, as well as all agreements and contracts.

The defeat of Bulatovic, that is, the defeat of Milosevic's spokesman and governor in Montenegro undoubtedly changes the relation of forces in Montenegro and the FRY. For the first time since 1989, Milosevic did not succeed in his intention to install in Montenegro a man who will be endlessly loyal to him. It turned out that in Montenegro in autumn 1997, it was more important to have support of the entire Montenegrin opposition than that of Milosevic and Seselj. What repercussions Djukanovic's victory will have on relations of the two republics-members of the federation remains to be seen. It is a fact that, along with the entire executive power in Montenegro, Milosevic does not control any more the highest state office - that of the president of the Republic. This can create problems for him in the foreseeable future. If Djukanovic sends highly qualified cadre to the federal government and the parliament, and not as before only persons endlessly loyal to Milosevic, the president of Yugoslavia will be brought into a hopeless position. His defeat in Montenegro might be the most severe blow to his rule. That is why he is so involved in Montenegrin elections, and that is why, through his propaganda, he is refusing to recognize them. But, in view of the recognition which has arrived from the USA and the OSCE, all these attempts appear as futile attempts of a boxer who is groggy.

These are desperate moves, although Bulatovic and his Belgrade mentor have numerous devoted supporters. Nevertheless, ten years have passed since the "anti®bureaucratic revolution" when power was won in the streets of Montenegrin cities. Since then, too much blood has been shed on the territory of former Yugoslavia to allow history to be repeated. Djukanovic's triumph has freed an enormous, until now unseen energy of young people and it is hard to believe that Milosevic can force this free genie back into the bottle. All democratic forces in Montenegro are now firmly merged into a resistance front against a national-fascist ideology formally represented by its shield-bearers - Milosevic, Seselj and Bulatovic. Djukanovic's victory is in this sense a torch of hope at the end of a long, dark tunnel.

Drasko DJURANOVIC

AIM Podgorica