KRAJISNIK IN GREAT TROUBLE

Election Decline of the SDS

AIM Banja Luka, 15 October, 1997

The initial statements of high ranking party officials that the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) was satisfied with the results of local elections, "because in majority of municipalities it had won the greatest number of votes", was mitigated by the official statement after the marathon session of the Main Board in which it was said that "the Main Board is not altogether satisfied with the results of municipal elections".

Aleksa Buha, acting president of the SDS, explained the absence of success by reasons of "subjective and objective nature", underlining the split in state leadership and weaknesses in certain municipal leaderships as the most important causes of failure. Buha did not forget to blame the media as well for the failure of the SDS, which, according to his words, blocked the western part of Republica Srpska.

Unexpectedly poor election results did not only introduce unrest into the ranks of the party, but deepened the split which has been shaking the SDS for quite some time. This time a sharp conflict broke out among the very top leadership of this party. The two-day session of the Main Board, reliable sources claim, passed in searching for the culprit for the failure and mutual accusations. A group of influential members of the Main Board headed by Aleksa Buha, accused Momcilo Krajisnik of having usurped full power in Pale and of not rendering accounts to anyone for the policy pursued towards the international community. Buha accused Krajisnik for having agreed to parliamentary elections in Belgrade, and blamed him for deceiving the party leadership by the allegation that they would be organized according to the rules determined by the leadership of RS. Buha was persuading the highest party body that the SDS together with the Radicals could not win the majority and that it would lose power.

Krajisnik tried to mitigate this unexpected blow by talking to Buha in private after the first day of the session. However, they parted, sources close to the office of Krajisnik claim, without having reached any agreement after a vehement quarrel and heavy accusations.

The tedious dispute at the Main Board was terminated by Krajisnik in his known manner - by a proposal that reaching of the decision on scheduling parliamentary elections be postponed for the next session of party leadership. Krajisnik obviously intends to use the breathing space between two sessions for probing the party membership and either winning over or eliminating his opponents.

This time Krajisnik will have a difficult and serious time doing it. He now has a few close associates against him, who claim equal merits for the "Serb cause" and who will not shrink from pointing their fingers at him as the culprit for everything that has happened in the meanwhile against their will and expectations. Milorad Dodik, president of the Party of Independent Social Democrats of Republica Srpska, once a deputy in the Assembly of RS and a good connnoisseur of circumstances in Pale, claims that the crumbling down of the SDS will end by just a few people remaining around Krajisnik, and all the others either politically disenganged or engaged in other political parties. "It should be expected that Buha, Sendic or someone else will soon form parties of their own", says Dodik.

Krajisnik had his first serious conflict with the party leadership after suspension of the Serb Radio-Television and taking over of transmitters by SFOR. As sources close to SDS leaders claim, Krajisnik accused Toholj and the hard-core faction in the Main Borad for the loss of transmitters, by telling them that they had created a problem which was undermining the very foundations of RS. They replied with the accusation that he had undermined the foundations of RS with his nomination of Biljana Plavsic for the president of RS. The Main Board had once nominated Aleksa Buha for the post, but Krajisnik managed to change the opinion of the majority and "push through" Biljana Plavsic. The snowball has obviously started to roll and it will not be easy to stop it. At the last session, the Main Board has remained without a few radical nationalists and influential party members. Borivoje Sendic, the last confidential and influential man from Banja Luka, submitted his resignation. Jovo Rosic, judge of the constitutional court, and Jovan Mitrovic, mayor of Zvornik, were thrown out of the Main Board. Departure of people from sensitive regions of the already divided entity will cause a chain reaction and start processes which will be difficult to control.

Due to the seriousness of the situation, Krajisnik has probably asked Milosevic for help, who three days after the end of the unpleasant session of the Main Board invited Krajisnik and Biljana Plavsic to come to Belgrade. Milosevic was expected to take the burden of accusations off Krajisnik's back put there by his recent obedient followers from Pale, and in this way pay Krajisnik back for his cooperativeness and assistance. However, judging by the published agreement, Krajisnik came away empty handed from Belgrade, as well. Parliamentary elections have been postponed for just seven days which will not be enough for the SDS to consolidate its ranks.

The assessments are that Milosevic moght try to save Krajisnik and the SDS by sacrificing the Socialist Party of RS. Analysts of political developments explain this thesis by the unexpected meeting of Zivko Radisic, president of the Socialist Party of RS with Nikola Poplasen, the leader of the Serb Radical Party of RS, and Dragan Kalinic, chairman of the assembly of RS, in Bijeljina, on the very same day when Krajisnik was paying a "visit" to Belgrade. "The agreement about consititution of the authorities", as the sudden meeting of until recently uncompromising enemies was explained, is announcing some kind of a coalition of the Socialists with nationalistic parties which have jointly won absolute majority in most of the municipalities of RS. According to certain allegations, Milosevic is exerting pressure on the Socialists in RS to return to the assembly and give legitimacy to state institutions still held by the SDS, which should reach certain very important decisions before the elections. What combinations are really in the game will soon be revealed.

The split in the SDS and the growing pressure of the international community have led the leadership of this party into great temptation. Party discipline which had drawn strength from charisma of Radovan Karadzic, ceased to be effective the moment it became clear that absolute power was lost. Undeveloped democratic relations inside the party could result only in excommunication of the disobedient members and constant seeking of culprits. This process of mutual accusations will continue and could soon lead to definite departure of the SDS from the political scene. Any other outcome of a totalitarian structure of authorities would be unnatural.

Branko Peric