WARM WIND FOR COLD WINTER

Macedonia in the European Union

AIM Skopje, 10 October, 1997

In the beginning of October, at the moment when the Macedonian public almost gave up hope that it will happen in the course of this year, at its last session, the European Parliament put on the agenda and ratified the agreement on cooperation with the Republic of Macedonia. After two postponements which were a clear indication for the domestic public that Macedonia had not yet settled its accounts and did not have such a large credit as its government was trying to present, ratification of this very significant agreement simply surprised even the greatest optimists who had never wanted to admit that the country was slowly but surely losing credibility in the world.

The economic situation in the country is still unenviable, and therefore it probably was not the main argument in favour of ratification. Especially because the two biggest "economic and political" scandals have not been clarified yet - the one concerning the TAT pyramidal system which was worth over 100 million German marks, and perhaps the even more delicate scandal of pulling the notorious "octupus" out to dry land, i.e. exposing organized crime which had penetrated even into state institutions. Although Macedonian prime minister had explicitly promised this to the public from the parliamentary platform, it seems that the "octupus" has simply vanished into thin air, although everybody was convinced that it was "somewhere near at hand, among us".

On the other hand, if viewed from the standpoint of EU which had once, when it had decided to expand the scope of cooperation, set as one of the main principles for cooperation internal stability of a country and its good cooperation with its neighbours, prospects are not any better. American South Eastern Cooperation Initiative (SECI) can serve as an illustration of the fact that the Westerners truly stick to the principle on regional cooperation, since its main foundation is the principle of regional cooperation. As concerning this cooperation, it is sufficient to mention that the dispute with Greece concerning the name of the Republic of Macedonia still lasts, with no chance to be solved. And after the statement of the Bulgarian President Petar Stojanov that Macedonia is "the most romantic part of Bulgarian history", relations with this country are on the lowest level since Macedonia had become independent. The problem of demarcation with FR Yugoslavia which started with optimistic declarations, seems to be seriously "stuck", and the relations with Albania almost traditionally are good at one moment and bad at another.

As concerning internal stability, the situation seems even less favourable in the context of conditions for institutional cooperation with the European Union which have to be met. Especially because within hardly past six months, two warnings have arrived to the address of the Macedonian government from Brussels referring to interethnic relations. The first one after students' demonstrations against university teaching in Albanian language, and the second after the bloodshed in Gostivar caused by the Macedonian police, the epilogue of which was the death of three Albanians.

Such a shift in the stand of the European Union opens a few doubts among which the main one refers to the motive for ratification of this agreement, without taking into account preconditions it itself had set.

All things considered, EU has started from the model previously applied by the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, i.e. "first reception and then meeting preconditions", and all that corroborated by the stand that this is a way to help a country which is in unfavourable conditions. At the time when Macedonia was received by the OSCE and the Council of Europe, the unfavourable conditions were the war in Bosnia and the danger of its spreading to the south, but also the danger of arising aspirations of its neighbours, known from history.

As concerning the agreement on cooperation with the EU, it seems that the motives for it were more of "internal nature", if one starts from the fact that foreign observers are increasingly warning that the main threat for Macedonia does not come from its neighbours any more but from internal conflicts. This was in the most illustrative way confirmed by United Nations Secretary General in his report on prolongation of the mandate of the preventive forces on the territory of Macedonia (UNPREDEP). Besides the assessment that stability of the country was threatened by unresolved interethnic relations, he recommended to the Security Council to reinforce the civilian component of UNPREDEP on account of the military, which could be interepreted as reinforcement of the "internal" on account of the "external" component. In this context, "accelerated" or "unexpected" ratification of the agreement on cooperation between the Republic of Macedonia and the European Union could be interpreted as a contribution of the EU to the stability of the country or as a warm wind for the coming cold political, but also economic winter. There is no doubt that after everything that happened in Gostivar which reminded many of what had happened before the beginning of the war in Bosnia, Macedonia needs more than ever internal consolidation. Macedonian government certainly would not be able to carry out this consolidation by itself without support from abroad, in this case of the EU, especially because that support can have specific economic effects which are assumed to be capable of alleviating interethnic tensions.

It is really very interesting that only a couple of days after this ratification, mayor of Gostivar, Rufi Osmani, who was sentenced by the municipal court in Gostivar to 13.8 years in prison, suddenly appeared at large!? The explanation for his temporary release was quite logical - Rufi Osmani spent the 90 days in custody prescribed by law and had to be released until the final court decision, but it is clear to everybody that such unexpected "generosity" of the court must have a deeper motive, for the reason that the trial was a drama the epilogue of which was known in advance. Is that the price the Macedonian government was forced to pay remains to be seen, but it is really very difficult to believe that these two events are a mere coincidence.

As concerning ratification, the stand is also interesting of the Albanian party which participates in the coalition government, which believes that ratification of the agreement may open a new phase in improvement of the position of the Albanians vis a vis the government, because institutionalization of the relations between the Republic of Macedonia and the European Union implies certain responsibilities in the field of ethnic rights which Macedonia will have to respect if it wishes to reach a higher level of cooperation. Will this really happen remains to be seen, but one should be reminded that similar promises were given by the Macedonian government when it was received by the Council of Europe and the OSCE.

AIM Skopje

IBRAHIM MEHMETI