VIOLENCE IN KOSOVO CASTS A SHADOW ON FUTURE DIALOGUE TIRANA - BELGRADE

AIM JUNIOR Tirana

AIM Tirana, 11 October, 1997

Kosovo has once again shaken up the policy of its parent-state. Just a single day of peaceful protests in a few of its cities was sufficient for Tirana to sharply react because of the manner in which two million ethnic Albanians were treated by official Belgrade. And while the balance sheet of police intervention speaks about 350 injured persons, pupils inclusive, the echo of peaceful protests of students who demand re-opening of schools in Albanian language, was louder than expected.

The EU and the USA demanded interruption of violence against the students, and in Tirana, the parliament, state institutions and main political forces used sharp language in describing what they believed to be "continuation of anti-Albanian policy of Belgrade". Organized after a meeting held by foreign ministers of two neighbouring countries at the OUN seat in New York, it seems that the protests of Kosovo students have complicated the future of the difficult process of establishing a dialogue between Tirana and Belgrade, although it was believed that it could begin after many years of diplomatic silence.

What happened in OUN was the first sign of melting of political ice which had blocked the mechanism of the Albanian and Yugoslav diplomacy. Ever since 1990, when they met at the Balkan conference in Tirana, two heads of diplomacy had not been in contact at all. The meeting in New York between Milo and Milutinovic therefore acquired the significance of the first step made in the midst of polemics and distrustfulness on both sides of the border. Although everything in this contact of ministers remained on the level of general outlines and was postponed for a later date, a single question was discussed in detail and with precise time determinants. Sources close to the Albanian government say that Milutinovic told Milo that the Agreement on education in Albanian signed a year ago would be implemented very soon by the Yugoslav party. According to the words of the Yugoslav minister this will happen immediately after the second round of presidential elections in Serbia in order to avoid possible consequences which such a step could have in the election campaign.

However, the explosion of students' protest seems to be capable of shaking up the fragile diplomatic peace agreed in New York. Developments in Pristina last week re-introduced the customary language into statements of both parties and reduced the possibilities of a more extensive dialogue - which was greatly stimulated two weeks ago by western administrations. Rightist opposition of leader Berisha took a sharp stand accusing the officials from Belgrade for chauvinism against the Albanians and the government of Fatos Nano of a passive attitude to such policy. It was not difficult for Berisha to reach out for sharp criticism in the conditions when the meeting in New York took place in the context of traditional mistrust and when the Albanian nationalists were openly criticizing this step in the press. On the other hand, the democratic opposition pointed out to the official silence of Nano's government. Indeed, not a single statement for the press arrived from the office of the prime minister, while in the meantime the parliament, the president and the ministry of foreign affairs declared their view of the revolt in Pristina. In his message, the president of the republic Rexhep Meidani said that "use of violence was not a way to resolution of unresolved problems from the Dayton accords on the territory of former Yugoslavia". Nevertheless, a non-governmental association called "Dardania" managed three days ago to gather under the sponsorship of the Forum of Young Socialists and Democrats main representatives of the two largest parties in Albania and to condemn violence applied against students in Pristina. This was the only moment which united the regime and the opposition concerning the great topic which still causes differences instead of bringing union: the national problem.

Restart of students' protests in Kosovo after several years of strained peace seems to have created a new climate in political circles of Tirana. Put in the current international context developments in the space where two million ethnic Albanians live aroused special interest in the Albanian political circles. Both those in power and the opposition seem to have realized that the problem of Kosovo was close to resolution, resolution which may imply maximum demands of the Albanian population which lives there, but nevertheless does not include the final objective of the political leadership of the Albanians: secession from Serbia and creation of their own state. Now when it seems that the influence of Kosovo leaders on the population there has weakened (the students refused to obey Rugova when he called them not to protest) it remains to be seen what effects the theses of western diplomacies on resolution within the framework of human rights, rejecting the option of change of borders will have. The latest initiative of the EU taken at the incentive of Germany may be considered to be a definite project which the Western administrations have decided to work on.

On the other hand, the new Albanian government formed after June elections is expected to play its role in untying one of the most complex knots history has ever bequeathed to the Albanian state: the issue of Kosovo. Faced with new regional reality which is quickly changing, faced with the increasing pressure exerted by international diplomacy for finding a compromising solution, and internally with institutional, economic and social crisis, Nano's government should count on taking courageous steps in order to direct this problem towards resolution which, due to the manner in which it is blocked, is a very difficult challenge for all. Its initiative in the direction of a dialogue and the effort to move away stones which have blocked the roads to communication will be difficult to implement faced with romantic and idealistic mentality of a large part of the Albanians and political games of the opposition which has always blown the bugle of treachery and capitulation in front of the "Serbian enemy". On the other hand, good will of Tirana will greatly be conditioned by the political situation which will be created in the Yugoslav Federation after the presidential elections. Possible victory of right nationalists in these elections would make a satisfactory compromise very difficult and it could end the dialogue even before it began.

The right, Berisha's opposition does not seem to intend to budge from the position it held during five years it was in power. Right from the beginning, the Democratic Party labelled the meeting between Milo and Milutinovic in New York as a bad compromise. The comfortable position they are in playing the role of the minority, allows the Democrats to increase the amount of nationalism in their stands, trying in this way to win a political point or two in their own favour. >From this aspect the right may create many problems for the government in view of the fact that the problem of Kosovo still stirs up emotions in the Albanian public, especially taking into consideration the big number of Kosovo Albanians who are living in Albania. Nevertheless, a great probability exists that a possible right government headed by Berisha would act the same as Nano's cabinet in the conditions of great pressure exerted by the West for reaching a final solution of this crisis by peaceful means. The bitter experience of Bosnia seems to have given a lecture to the West that it is necessary to deal seriously with the crises in the Balkans and with a maximum engagement. And Kosovo is one of the most dangerous crises which the region is threatened by.

AIM Tirana

ARJANA LEKA