REFORM AS A BUGBEAR

Social and economic aspect of the first round of presidential elections

Summary: In his campaign, Bulatovic has skilfully used social discontent of the population, especially of the employed. The atmosphere of social poverty and awakened national passions in northern municipalities of Montenegro coincided in anideal combination for him, almost according to the same matrix as about ten years ago during the so-called anti-bureaucratic revolution, he set out on his campaign for the seat of the head of the state and against the institutions of the system. He put on a halo of honesty and truth, reinforced by support of Milosevic and Seselj, and used the fear of the citizens of reform and Djukanovic's vision of Yugoslavia

AIM Podgorica, 12 October, 1997

To any analysis of reasons and causes of the results of the first election round, it is necessary to add the social aspect. However it may seem insignificant in the conditions when everything in Montenegro is divided strictly along the Serb-Montenegrin separation line, certain aspects of the course of the election campaign, as well as the general contents of the two diffirent political options offered to the voters, are a warning that the social and economic interests of the voters must be taken into account. Moreover, certain interlocutors warn that economic and social aspirations played a decisive role in the choice a part of the electorate made.

While in the previous parliamentary elections, the oppositionist National Harmony was shouting "catch the thief", but all in vain, this time one of the major Bulatovic's trump cards was that very message. During the entire campaign, the Prime Minister could not get rid of the created impression that he was the top criminal in Montenegro. Along with the label that he is a separatist, which seems to be by far more important for Montenegro, this burden was weakening Djukanovic during the campaign. The entire glamour and wealth of his presidential campaign American style, did not help him any. His promotions with enormous video projections, faultless suits and numerous singers were in an enormous discrepancy with the standard of everyday living of ordinary voters, and had in fact the opposite effect than intended. The wealth of the campaign of Milo Djukanovic seemed to have irritated the poor voters of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), who were the least impressed by his pre-election messages.

Contrary to the Prime Minister, who was openly announcing radical changes along with an accelerated process of privatization, President Bulatovic offered continuation of the journey down the same blazed trail. Election results are in that sense the best indicator that the electorate, primarily the employed part of the population, are considerably frightened with the essential characteriistics of capitalism. The resistance to Djukanovic's privatization is at the same time resistance to a faster introduction of market relations. The results of the elections therefore show fear of capitalism: of square accounts, harder and more demanding work, uncertainty, social differences... The employees already have a good evaluation of prospects of the existing mammoth, allegedly transformed socially-owned enterprises. They are aware that without re-introduction of state ownership in the entire economic system implemented by the DPS through privatization of funds, these enterprises would have been shut down and they would have been left even without the illusion that their jobs offer certainty. (For the meagre salaries for such jobs, the workers are compensating with increasing success in the private sector where they work in the afternoons).

The radical process of transition has its social price which has already been paid in all the eastern European countries. Transition recession is inevitable, and the sooner the countries had decided to bite into this apple sooner, the sooner they swallowed it, so that a period of economic development is already beginning for them, and therefrom rise of the total standard of living. That social price of transition is the greatest pain in the neck of the authorities, although Milo Djukanovic has become quite aware that this price will increase if its postponing continues. But, social demagogy of Momir Bulatovic, richly seasoned with support from brotherly Serbia, has yielded election fruit for him.

The citizens who are aware that "we are all slightly criminals", seemed to have needed a scape goat. Although he was at the top of the pyramid of power, Bulatovic has managed to wash his hands of it and pass this hot potato into the hands of Milo Djukanovic. The majority of voters shared the political illusions of the regime and dilligently participated in the destruction of former Yugoslavia. That is why they are now forgiving the regime its participation in the war and transformation into peace-makers. On the social level as well, the authorities had quite faithful accomplices in their subjects, so that back at the time of the sanctions, a specific coalitiion was formed with those who were permitted to survive by working illegally and by smuggling on the small scale. But, there is an end to everything, and even to such a embrace.

The ruthless and arrogant behavior of the managers who founded their power only on cooperation with the government, as well as the already typical incompetence of some ministers who hid behind the authority of the prime minister also had a price which Djukanovic as the persidential candidate had to pay.

The very aspect of social discontent of the population, especially of the employed, was cunningly used by Bulatovic in his campaign. The atmosphere of social poverty and awakened nationalism in the northern part of Montenegro conicided in an ideal combination for him, and in that field and almost according to the identical matrix according to which eight or nine years ago in the anti-bureaucratic revolution, he set out to conquer the post of the head of the state and the institutions of the system. He made a halo of honesty and truth for himself, reinforced with the support of Milosevic and Seselj, used the fear of the citizens of reform and Djukanovic's "separatism", and now, on the eve of the second round of the elections, he has a significant psychological advantage.

Bulatovic has just directed the smouldering wrath of the people, which quite certainly, without the national cause founded on emotions, would not have yielded the results it did, Resistance to privatization and the new class in Montenegro personified by Milo Djukanovic, united with the defence of Serbdom and this force has brought Bulatovic the enviable 47 per cent of votes.

Dragan Djuric

AIM Podgorica