GLIGOROV TWO YEARS AFTER THE ATTEMPT ON HIS LIFE

AIM Skopje, 4 October, 1997

When in mid 1989 and after the first pluralist elections in the beginning of 1990, he was slowly but surely winning the leading position in Macedonia which was still a socialist republic, Kiro Gligorov had some really tough moments. His election in the first pluralist parliament was preceded by long and tedious inter-partisan bargaining about division of power, which included even schemes for eliminating him even from the party whose candidate he was.

In the assembly which ideologically was not favourable for him (the majority was held by nationalistic VMRO-DPMNE and by deputies of the Party of Democratic Prosperity - PDP, who were not to the liking of reformed communists whose candidate he was), he won the needed two-thirds majority only in the second round of voting. Once he became president he exceeded all constitutional time limits for nominating the mandatary for formation of the government. He devised the formula of an "expert government" headed by Nikola Kljusev, member of the Academy of Sciences and Arts, as a compromise between the most powerful VMRO-DPMNE in the parliament (38 seats) and refusal of his opponents from the SKM-PDP and the Liberals to take part in the VMRO government. After that, everything that happened was in his favour.

He managed to push his vice-president (Ljupco Georgievski, leader of VMRO-DPMNE) to the margins and his party, and drew the main Albanian party into futile negotiations about demands of the Albanians. He gradually took over much more power than prescribed by the Constitution. In the process of dissolution of SFRY, while touring Tito's residences with the presidents of other former Yugoslav republics, he created an image of a reasonable politician with acceptable stands. Within the state which was emerging, his popularity grew, so he easily claimed all the credits for the referendum and peaceful winning of independence, and then peacefully disentangled Macedonia from the Yugoslav People's Army (JNA). In the struggle for international recognition of the Republic of Macedonia, Gligorov's rating gradually rose.

He reached the climax of his popularity and authority in the campaign for president and parliamentary elections in the end of 1994. At the final rally, with a trembling voice, he appealed on the voters not to leave him alone and to vote for the coalition Union for Macedonia. The coalition won absolute majority in the parliament, among other, by using various stratagems in the elections which the opposition called election theft (due to which it withdrew from the second round), but also by hiding behind favourable evaluations of foreign observers who were impressed by "wise policy" in the "oasis of peace". In view of the quality of relations among coalition partners and their elected representatives, it was clear that Gligorov had taken over the role of the locomotive which was pulling too big a burden, so according to the laws of physics it was inevitable for it to break down sooner or later. The hasty and dubious proclamation of him as the winner in the first round of presidential elections was the first sign of fading of his charisma.

This time, consultations for formation of the new government did not exceed the constitutional time limit, but publication of the list of ministers chosen by the prime minister and the voting in the parliament (during which the Liberals, as coalition partners, accepted to participate in the government but refused to vote in favour of the election of other ministers) showed that the "umbrella" held by Gligorov was too small to cover up the intolerance between the two major parties in power. Misunderstandings were transferred to the government and the parliament, but Gligorov somehow managed to control and reconcile them.

The split occurred after the attempt on his life. The formal reason were accusations against the then minister of internal affairs Frckovski (because of his concept of transformation of the Ministry and discontent with the results of the investigation on the attempt on Gligorov's life) and the concept of privatization conceived by minister Miljovski, on the one hand, and accusations against the chairman of the assembly, leader of the Liberals Andov, that he had hurried to take Gligorov's place while he was recovering from the attempt on his life, on the other.

Gligorov did not realize that the "young rascals" he had brought to power did not count on him any more. The message sent to him was clear even before the formal split of the coalition. Frckovski declared to the party paper: "It is necessary to avoid designing of a political system in respect to a historical role or a historical personage such as the President of the Republic. This post and this period in our history will remain unique", and then he stressed: "the important thing is that all other institutions operate within their constitutional duties and responsibilities".

Public appeals made by Gligorov on several occasions to preserve the Union for Macedonia were not granted. The Liberals were chased away from the authorities, just as prime minister Crvenkovski had announced in his interview to the weekly Puls, and his minister Frckovski theoretically explained in the same journal. The newly elected minister of internal affairs Cokrevski, also in Puls, went even a step further. He sent word to the President that it was dangerous to found a state on personages, on heritage: "I think that the President can discharge his duty peacefully, with no fear that the young group was going to act independently".

It was clear that the "young group" has succeeded to kill two birds with one stone - to get rid of the Liberals and leave the President of the Republic aside. The role of Queen Elizabeth was intended for him. He appeared in public literally everywhere, news were published about his "emotional behavior" which was linked to aggravation of his health. The "old fox" finally had to admit that he was defeated and to join those who held power. The President of all citizens as he liked to call himself from the very start, had already been losing the inclination of sympathizers of the greatest opposition parties, but also of the Albanian parties which had become extremely suspicious about his stands concerning them. Gligorov was therefore reduced to the president of those who belonged to the SDSM. He visited the headquarters of the young SDSM members and in this way publicly declared that he belonged to them. In his rare reviews of what had been accomplished, he varied the same theses and ideas he had stressed in his inaugural speech in the parliament after the elections: about Macedonia which had gained independence peacefully and had not permitted the war to spread to the south of the Balkans, that it had not allowed extremist nationalism to gain control of things, that it had implemented economic reform despite the sanctions and blockades, that it had remained true to development of democracy, civic society and legal state, to European integrations... It would be almost frivolous to compare Gligorov's words with the reality.

Preservation of peace, survival in the conditions of the blockade are historic facts. The internal inter-ethnic relations or "coexistence" went up in smoke thanks to its very promoters (Gligorov himself clearly said in recent interviews that the Albanian parties were acting in favour of secession of western Macedonia and union with Greater Albania; while Aliti, President of the PDP which is in the government coalition declared a long time ago that Gligorov believes that all Albanians were nationalists). The "equi-distance" in relations to the neighbours can be considered to have succeeded only if this term means equally bad relations with all the neighbours, therefore the proposal of the Macedonian President about a resolution on cooperation in the Balkans can sound ironic. And nothing to say about economic reform and Macedonia joining the NATO and the European Union. Obviously, intentions and wishes have only rhetorically been turned into accomplished objectives and the reality...

All Gligorov has left are journeys abroad, interviews to foreign media and public appearances at home. Visits to China and the USA, as well as the announced visit to Russia, are significant, but in the end can be brought down to pure protocol. Interviews to foreign media have become the way for Gligorov to send messages to the domestic public, so that is how, for instance, Macedonian citizens learnt about Serbian territorial demands in determining borders. If the situation has become so strained that the President of the Republic has no possibility to state his views at home, then it is no wonder that Gligorov has participated at the opening of the first McDonalds restaurant in Macedonia which was presented by state media as another success of state diplomacy - reception of Macedonia in the McDonald's empire. Or opening of the gas pipeline. The irony is that after tasting of hamburgers and pressing the button, both "economic victories" were closed: McDonald's because of irregularities in employment of 138 workers, and the pipeline simply because there is still no enterprise which will manage it.

Recently, Radio Free Europe published a commentary about alleged disagreements between President Gligorov and prime minister Crvenkovski. Similar information was previously carried by a Greek paper.

The source of these speculations are rumours about the estrangement because on the one hand Gligorov is not satisfied with his status nor with the purge of the so-called "intellectual faction" in the recent reconstruction of the government, and on the other discontent of the prime minister and the SDSM with Gligorov who does not publicly support their moves often enough. If there is any truth in it, Gligorov is facing a new challenge: to squander leftovers of his popularity and authority in the next parliamentary elections regardless of whether they will be early as demanded by the opposition, or regular as the Constitution prescribes, or to "return" to those who have "dethroned" him and peacefully end his mandate until 1998. Whatever he chooses, the result will be the same.

Two years after the attempt on his life, it can be said almost with certainty: Gligorov has survived the attempt on his life which is a true (medical) miracle, but nevertheless, after the explosion of the car-bomb in Marshal Tito street, in front of the Bristol Hotel in Skopje, he is practically politically dead.

AIM SKOPJE

ISO RUSI