BITTER TASTE OF POWER

Results of Local Elections in Republica Srpska

AIM Banja Luka, 14 October, 1997

Although 55 parties and two coalitions from Republica Srpska had registered for the local elections, only 17 of them have succeeded to win one or more seats in municipal assemblies. In other words, on the local level in RS, 17 parties will participate in "legislative power". They are the following: Serb Democratic Party (of the Serb Lands) (SDS), Socialist Party of RS (SPRS), Serb Radical Party (SRS), Serb Patriotic Party (SPAS), Party of Independent Social Democrats, National Party of RS, Serb Party of Krajina and Posavina (SSKiP), Party of Serb Unity, Serb Peasants' Party, Democratic Party of RS, Serb Revival Movement (SPO), "Nikola Pasic" National Radical Party seated in Banja Luka, Serb Fatherland Front, New Democratic Movement (Rudo), Democratic Patriotic Party, Democratic Party for Banja Luka and Krajina, and Zvornik Radical Party. They will share the "thrill" of power through mutual agreements, negotiations, partnership and coalitions.

The elections have neither removed nor diminished doubts and difficulties which Republica Srpska had been faced with before the elections. It could even be said that tensions have multiplied.

Results of the elections and the position of some parties in the elections have just confirmed the long latent division into the eastern or Pale, i.e. Romanija-Herzegovina part, and the western or Banja Luka-Krajina part of RS. While in the eastern part which in the geographic sense extends to the borders of Bijeljina municipality, parties which do not support the current president of RS triumphed, and these are the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) and the Serb Radical Party (SRS), in the northern and western part of RS, parties and coalitions which had supported decisions of President Biljana Plavsic and which had constantly been opposed to the SDS authorities were very successful in the elections. This is the first big political result of this year's local elections in RS which will not remain only on the political level, but will also soon cause significant disturbances in the economic sphere.

The second great consequence of the local elections which is clear from election results is the decline of "popularity" and influence of the SDS. Results show that more than a half of the Serb electorate has no more confidence in this, until recently, untouchable party, its program and its candidates. The Serb Radicals made the biggest "profit" out of this decline in the east of the republic, and the Socialists, Independent Social Democrats and a few other regional parties (Serb Party of Krajina and Posavina, Democratic Party for Banja Luka and Krajina) in the west of RS. Success of the Radicals especially in the conditions when this party had very limited cadre clearly shows that the national criterion is still decisive in the choice and in the system of values of the majority of the Serb electorate and that tactless and hasty insisting on reconciliation, reintegration might have the effect of the boomerang.

The position of the Socialists and Social Democrats in the western part of RS could lead to the conclusion that these are regional, local parties and that the last year's coalition Alliance for Peace and Progress with the Liberals and traditional leftists had been a failure. There is no doubt, these two parties will be an important link in all the future political configurations in RS, in view of their program, methods of political operation and cadre they have at their disposal. One of them, the Socialist Party of RS, has a firm support in Serbia and FR Yugoslavia, while the other, Party of Independent Social Democrats, has the support of Europe and related parties in the Federation of B&H.

It is difficult to assume that regional parties such as the SSKiP, DS for Banja Luka and Krajina and the New Democratic Movement (Rudo) will in the future have any success in future elections like they did this year. This is illustrated by the fact that in the local elections, except for the mentioned parties, all the other local, regional or homeland parties were not successful at all, and there were more than 30 of them. Not even the numerous parties which were formed on the eve of the elections based on an ad-hoc defined interest (parties of refugees or displaced persons, ecological, youth, education and health and similar) have not managed to even have a single representative in any of the municipal assemblies. The same happened to all the parties of civic orientation - the Liberals (there are three liberal parties in RS), associations of citizens, new democracies, parties of democratic centre, of social revival, private initiatives, progressive, "mildly" national parties, and various "mixtures" such as workers' and peasants' party, and finally all the parties of the traditional left: communists - both "old" and "new", members of Yugoslav United Left, Yugoslavs, workers' parties (there were a few of these too), progressists, and also all kinds of "fronts" did not do any better either.

The electorate of RS has nevertheless remained grouped around a few major parties and a further tendency of narrowing down of the alternatives and increase of groups of voters based on program orientation of parties has already become evident. It is not difficult to forecast that running in the elections for the parliament of RS would be a mere waste of time for more than two thirds of the parties. Not even in a coalition with parties similar to them would they be able to ensure a deputy seat for themselves in the National Assembly of RS, and this is the criterion which separates a serious party from those which exist only because of high ambitions of their leaders.

That the past elections and the achieved election results are not something that will contribute to stabilization and normalization of life in RS is best illustrated by the new composition of local authorities. There are very few municipalities in which a single party has won more than half of the seats which will enable it to form the executive authorities on its own. Mostly the SDS is in such a position in ten odd minor municipalities. That is why parties with the largest number of votes will be forced to make different coalitions, unions and similar partnerships. In many municipalities due to the large percentage of participation of councilmen of parties from B&H Federation, it will be possible to form the executive authorities only with the approval of all the parties from RS. The so far unthinkable "partnership" or "coalition" between, say, the Social Democrats and the SDS, the Socialists and the SSKiP, the Radicals and Mauzer's "Democrats", will most probably become a reality.

While on the one hand, on the local level, it will be necessary to look for points of contact and protect the minimum interests of the voters, on the other, in the campaign for the republican, and maybe even presidential level, possible and real opponents will not be able to spare each other. While the leaders on the high level will tussle and denounce each other, leaders of these same parties on the municipal level will have not just to bury the hatchet, but even to publicly demonstrate harmony, joint interests, solidarity and love. And it is generally known what this can be like among the Serbs.

Slobodan Nagradic

bbbbbb