With an Alternative or Without It

Montenegro Elects Its President in the Second Round

AIM Podgorica, 9 October, 1997

Hardly anyone in Montenegro was surprised by the fact that Momir Bulatovic and Milo Djukanovic, in competition with other six candidates, after the first round of presidential elections, gathered almost all the votes of those who had come to the polls. What caused surprise is the fact that the decision about the future president of Montenegro will have to wait for the second round of the elections although every possibility of such an outcome was denied before the elections. Both competing teams emitted optimistic messages, convinced that Bulatovic's Yugoslavia "with no alternative" or "dignified and upright" Montenegro advocated by Djukanovic were too weak a dilemma for "politically mature" citizens of Montenegro.

It turned out that in the elections which were not simple at all and at the same time were so important, Montenegro chose its own division along the seam which divides it into two almost identical parts which have different views of its status in the joint state with Serbia, of its international position, its past and its future.

If anything can be observed as a new quality on the political scene of Montenegro, it is the awareness that half of the electorate has chosen the civic concept for their state, which is a novelty in relation to the times when majority of them had fought for other people's national causes, celebrated other people's defeats and waged other people's wars lost in advance. It is, therefore, not by pure accident that Milo Djukanovic summed up the dilemma on the eve of the election into a single sentence that the citizens would in fact be deciding in favour or against Montenegro. The process of dissolution of an obsolete and old structure in Montenegro, seems to have taken root and now it depends entirely on the capability of Milo Djukanovic to win over the votes of those who abstained in the first round whether it will make the definite step forward into the future.

The other, Bulatovic's Montenegro, has chosen the variant with nothing uncertain. Continuity of national Bolshevik policy well known for all the past years leaves no dilemma, least of all reasons for fear of what joining modern world trends would bring. One should not wonder, therefore, that Momir Bulatovic founded his campaign on shallow social demagogy and building the image of the victim against whom the entire media apparatus was conspiring. The target group of his campaign, quite intentionally were people from the lowest social and educational strata, which were very fertile ground for stories about Djukanovic's "crime" and "separatism".

The two extremes have never been so exposed. And although Bulatovic and Djukanovic personally are not a very good personification of the black and white view of Montenegrin reality, it is difficult to resist the impression that political concepts they advocated correspond exactly to this division.

Sunday elections have shown that Milo Djukanovic won confidence of the electorate which until recently has not been too enthusiastic about his policy. The actual situation which shows that two thirds of the once compact Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) followed Bulatovic, will probably not be very pleasant for Djukanovic. Nevertheless, the fact that quite new part of the electorate has decided to give its vote to him although it had until recently been inclined towards the opposition may be the instrument for accusations only to those who still look upon Montenegro as a servant of the official Belgrade and Belgrade Montenegrins.

Although Momir Bulatovic won in 14 and Milo Djukanovic in only seven Montenegrin municipalities, the difference of two thousand two hundred votes in favour of the former president is the result of a convincing Djukanovic's victory in the environments populated by the Albanians, the Muslims and the Montenegrins with an expressed sensibility for their own statehood. This fact was later used by Bulatovic to accuse his rival all over again for flirting with those who do not fit into the concept of the creation designed by those in Belgrade whose opinion he shares - Milosevic and Seselj. Nevertheless, both before and after the elections, with the stand that every vote of the Albanians or Muslims he might win would make him proud, more than with any other gesture, Djukanovic announced a different future of Montenegro which will not be conceived as a civic society only in its republican constitution. Such Montenegro, Djukanovic used to say would not go to Belgrade "for a point of view, but with a point of view". In fact, circumstances which form the mosaic of the joint state of Serbia and Montenegro could soon open the dilemma whether at all, and not how, the official Podgorica will go to Belgrade in the future. Those who can imagine Djukanovic, Milosevic and Seselj sitting together at the same table are probably greater illusionists than those who claim that Montenegro may be forced to start thinking about its cash box completely on its own.

What Djukanovic might regret after the first round of the elections is insufficiently well organized election headquarters which had left a lot to pure chance and uncorroborated optimism of people from the Prime Minister's immediate surroundings. While Bulatovic's "three-man patrols" persistently toured the country entering almost every home and threatening the people with Djukanovic's "anti-Serbdom", "Anti-Yugoslavdom", "Shkyptars", and the "Turks", supporters of Djukanovic relied much more on the glamour which distinguished his campaign. Not even the fact which is now persistently repeated by Momir Bulatovic that Djukanovic had the entire state media apparatus, money and support of the entire opposition at his disposal was not sufficient for the Prime Minister's team to manifest more skill than "incorrigible optimism". Instead of legal, "Djukanovic's" police, former policemen of the former Montenegrin minister of police, Nikola Pejakovic, roamed Montenegro and with significant financial support of the official Belgrade campaigned in favour of survival of the joint state "warranted" by Momir Bulatovic.

State media which were after the split in the DPS organized by Djukanovic according to his needs, with their aggressiveness with which they set out in giving preference to their new boss had a much more stronger effect of anti-propaganda of Djukanovic's policy. Therefore, the thesis is not wrong according to which for the first time Montenegrins who used to believe everything served to them from their TV screens have finally refused to obey those who had forced them to consume something completely different from what their senses had been exposed to in the seven long years of rule of Milosevic's DPS.

If fear of changes conveyed by the reform is added to this, which was often further aroused by threats with the Bosnian scenario and adorned with the noise of air-force jets flying low above the heads of columns of Djukanovic's supporters, the Prime Minister has plenty of reason to be happy that he had even "survived" the first election round.

In the second round, if chances of the remaining two candidates are analyzed, both Bulatovic and Djukanovic have every opportunity for the final triumph. The former can count on about ten thousand additional Serb votes which were given to three presidential candidates nominated by political organizations which are in favour of Serbdom. This is, indeed, the only hope for Bulatovic, not really sufficient for a certain victory.

On the other hand, Djukanovic will certainly do his best to win over supporters of the Liberal Alliance who have manifested readiness to put faith in "secret" Djukanovic's plans to make Montenegro independent. Just two days after the first round of the elections, leader of the Liberals Slavko Perovic unambiguously expressed support to Djukanovic which should drive away any doubt left about the outcome of the second round. If thousands of young people are added to this, who were due to either their own or someone else's negligence left out of the electoral register, as well as significant spare votes in the cities in which he had won significant support as it is (Ulcinj, Bar, Plav, Podgorica), everything seems quite simple. Especially if it is taken into account that Djukanovic could employ the considerably slow state administration to work "in the field" in the next few days.

Nevertheless, the experience of 5 October proves that Bulatovic will not remain idle either. His field workers undoubtedly have plenty of strength and skill left, and the material potential he has at his disposal may be a firm basis for new methods necessary to reinforce the support in polling committees which have already done a significant job in his favour. The support he enjoyed in the Republican Electoral Commission and the inherited structure of controllers of ballot boxes with fifty years experience can be a strong trump card in the hands of the current president.

With a great deal of uncertainty and unconcealed panic of supporters of both political teams, Montenegro is expecting results of voting in the second round of presidential elections. If Djukanovic succeeds in his intention to "once and for all dispose of the policy which looks upon Montenegro solely as a subject of the official Belgrade", this will prove that in the years of lost chastity the healthy Montenegrin tissue has been preserved after all, which just waited for the right moment for disassociation with the xenophobic and anti-progressive policy. Bulatovic would in that case be the first from the postcard made in memory of the excursion of six presidents of former Yugoslav republics who would lose his job. Should that really happen, maybe somebody will dare utter that Bulatovic has just paid the bill for the fact that he was the only one who did not wish sovereignty on his own territory.

On the contrary, with Bulatovic at its head, Montenegro knows only too well what lies in line for it. Should it choose this road to the new century, it will be a reliable sign that on geographic maps it will acquire a different sign, and in political life that it will be nothing but a folklore determinant.

Nebojsa REDZIC

AIM Podgorica