MONTENEGRO - VOTERS IN KNOCKDOWN

The End of the Campaign - On the Eve of the Elections

AIM Podgorica, 3 October, 1997

On Sunday, 5 October, 458,871 citizens with the right to vote in Montenegro, will elect the president who will in the next five years represent the smaller member-republic of the FR of Yugoslavia. Although these are just the second presidential elections in the short parliamentary tradition of Montenegro, they are already labelled as "historical". The citizens of this Republic, as picturesquely described by Podgorica weekly Monitor, will choose between "nullity and hope". There are eight candidates, but actually only two in the race - the current president of the Republic, Momir Bulatovic and the current Montenegrin prime minister, Milo Djukanovic. The former is offering the citizens unquestioned and unconditional link to the regime in Serbia and president Milosevic, and the latter, disassociation from the policy he himself had belonged to for the past seven years. The victory of the former, especially after crushing results of the first election round in Serbia, would mean the end of the last hope that salvation of the citizens of the two republics from spiritual and material misery is possible, while the triumph of Djukanovic would preserve belief that, despite a squandered decade, there is still some hope. That perhaps a "historical" battle is being fought here is also reflected in the fact that 250 journalists from the whole wide world have been accredited for the Sunday elections, which is ten times more than in any previous Montenegrin elections which were as a rule uninteresting for its surroundings.

Yesterday, on the last day before the election silence, Bulatovic and Djukanovic had their final conventions

• the former in Berane, centre of northern Montenegro where Bulatovic enjoys the greatest support, and the latter promoted his program in the capital of the Republic - Podgorica. The ambience, iconography and messages which marked the two gatherings best reflect the differences in the programs offered by these two candidates. Bulatovic's gathering in Berane passed in the best tradition of the deja-vu outbursts of national-ideological extremists from the ranks of Milosevic's anti-bureaucratic revolution. Threats were addressed at everybody from this gathering - America, the Albanians, the opposing political group and judges, editors of state media, as well as managers of "Djukanovic"'s enterprises. Bulatovic's program, founded on the propagandist slogan: "truth", advocates the struggle against "unjust privatization", nationalization of illegally acquired property, endurance of "unjustified" sanctions - to the bitter end, togetherness with Serbia - until eternity.

Contrary to that, Djukanovic's promotion in Podgorica, like all previous ones, was organized according to the model of American political presentations, with a lot of glitter, various props, balloons, flags, and a lot of money, of course. Messages which could be heard were also "cosmopolitan", with the characteristic stress on human rights and rights of minorities, civic concept of society, privatization, freedom of the media... And the people who appeared at Djukanovic's gatherings considerable differed from those at Bulatovic's. Almost the entire "progressive" intelligentsia, the university, students, youth, almost entire middle class decided to back the prime minister, but also the stratum which belongs to the sphere of grey and dubious economy and which has become very rich in the past few years. The current president Bulatovic was accompanied by offspring of the lowest social stratum, the slum proletariat and the neglected Montenegrin provincial towns to which he offered, like Robin Hood, his demagogist story about justice and morality, struggle against crime, arrests of the rich, and all that adorned by national and folklore elements of the entire Serbdom.

In his campaign, Bulatovic aimed at winning the so-called Serb voters (about 20 per cent of the electorate), but also at winning over the poorest and ideologically the most impenetrable layer of the population. That is why just two days before the end of the campaign, he received expressions of support from the leaders of the Union of Veterans of Yugoslavia, and the next day, from voivoda Seselj who appealed on his voters to give their votes to the current president. Djukanovic, partly by his charm and partly by making concessions, "bought" the opposition which did not nominate a candidate of its own, silently at first and then openly, offering support to prime minister's candidacy. Technocratic structures are also backing him, a significant portion of office-workers and the young generation of voters. Nevertheless, if these two extremes are observed, one at which Bulatovic is supported by nationalists, the poor and pensioners, and the other at which Djukanovic is backed by minorities, civic-society oriented voters, the layer of the wealthy citizens and the intellectuals, chances for final victory are on the side od the current president more than on that of his opponent. All previous elections have also proved this point, since the opposition which used to have the similar platform and similar support like Djukanovic nowadays, lost without exception. But, to make the paradox even greater, chances for victory of a somewhat normal option in this space which offers hope, have never been better than they are now. Everything that the democratic opposition has talked about for the past few years, very persistently and very decisively, is now uttered by prime minister Djukanovic, but from the position of a man who is at the top of the authorities and who has significant influence on the police, media and finances.

Public opinion polls speak in favour of Djukanovic. To be on the safe side, the headquarters of the Montenegrin prime minister have made three parallel investigations of the electorate on a large and representative sample - results of all spoke in his favour, with the advantage over Bulatovic of 12 to 15 per cent. But, despite that, uncertainty and pre-election nervousness are shaking the one and the other party. Stakes are high, possible consequences catastrophic, so that both the camps of the presidential candidates and the electorate in general are in the state reminding a specific knockdown. Nobody knows what the outcome will be like, nor what repercussions it will have.

Marko Vukovic

AIM Podgorica