COALITION GOVERNMENT SPS-SPO?

Parliamentary and Presidential Elections in Serbia

Serbia has voted in its fourth parliamentary and third presidential elections, without having budged from the very beginning. Not a single party won the majority in the parliament. The Socialists will be the biggest force in the parliament again, the Radicals are following them close behind, and the Serb Revival Movement (SPO) has qualified for the role played so far by New Democracy.

AIM Belgrade, 24 September, 1997

Distribution of parliamentary forces is as follows: the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) has won about 110 seats, the Serb Radical Party (SRS) slightly above 80, the Serb Revival Movement (SPO) 45, the Union of Voivodina Hungarians and Voivodina Coalition will have four seats each, and PDD-DPA, party of Albanians from Bujanovac and Presevo and the Democratic Alternative, party of former Socialist Nebojsa Covic, have won one seat each. The race for the president of Serbia run by Zoran Lilic of the SPS, Vojislav Seselj of the SRS and Vuk Draskovic of the SPO has ended by elimination of the third and qualification of the first two to run in the second round with a comparatively small difference in the results. Lilic has won about a million and three hundred thousand votes, and Seselj slightly above one million.

In the initial professional and political comments, surprise was expressed because of an immense rise of the Radicals (they had 35 deputies in the previous parliament), so it was estimated that national socialism has won in Serbia. Political analysts assess that Serbia will face an unstable period and that very soon, within six months or a year at the latest, new parliamentary elections will have to be scheduled. It is also estimated that the president of Serbia will not be elected in the second round, and that a period with an acting president lasting two or even more months lies ahead, until new presidential elections.

What has in fact happened? The true winner of the elections in Serbia is Vojislav Seselj and his party. The Socialists have lost, and the Serb Revival Movement is more or less where it has been before. About forty odd seats in the parliament it had had as part of the former Depos have now been increased by five of its own.

The priority question in Serbia is who will form the government. The Socialists have immediately declared that they were open to negotiations with all the parties, and their coalition partner New Democracy stated that a government of national unity would be the best solution for the future. The leader of the Radicals also openly offered to talk with all the parliamentary parties, but stressed that he would not support a minority government. According to his words, a coalition government formed by SPS and SPO is much more probable.

The Serb Revival Movement happens to be in the politically most interesting position - it can decide which direction Serbia will turn to. Depending on its choice, Serbia will either, at least formally, open to the world, or radicalize its national issue to the maximum. In the former case, the SPO would form a coalition with the SPS, and in the latter, it will unite with the SRS.

After the initial shock he experienced because of the defeat he suffered in the elections, Vuk Draskovic declared that he would support none of the presidential candidates and that Serbia would be faced with a parliamentary crisis, since it was impossible "to choose between communism and fascism". When after a couple of days, the SPO managed to pull itself together and became aware that its position was not at all so bad after all, official messages followed that this party would support the government which would be ready to implement its political program. Draskovic has continued to stress that new, as he says real, presidential elections still lay ahead for Serbia.

Apparently boring elections with a predictable outcome, have suddenly become interesting because cards were shuffled so that all combinations are possible. Immediately after having grasped the meaning of the results, the Socialists initiated rumours that Draskovic and Seselj, who were "best men", have re-established good relations. Obviously programming election success of the Radicals has got out of hand of the Socialists, so their initial reactions should be understood as a provocation out of fear. But, all things considered, it will be more difficult for the two "best men" to reach an agreement, because they have less to offer to each other than the Socialists.

As time goes by, however, events in Serbia are going back to normal and dust is starting to settle down in the spirit of pre-election speculations. From the very moment when Vuk Draskovic, having talked to Slobodan Milosevic, decided to run in the elections, rumours started that participation of the SPO in both governments, the federal and the republican, had been agreed. In this context, it was considered as highly probable that local administrations of the Together coalition would be dissolved and new ones formed by the new union of the SPO with the Socialists. The beginning of this story is overthrowing of Zoran Djindjic from the post of the mayor of Belgrade.È    h)  0*0*0*# #   ÈîÖ It is interesting that the ballots have hardly been counted when the SPO actually initiated the process of relieving the president of the Democratic party of the duty of the mayor of the capital. The impression is that the most important task for the party of Vuk Draskovic is to finish off its former coalition partner. It is a fact that by the very decision to run in the elections, the latter has been pushed to the margins, but it seems that Draskovic wishes to complete this job once and for all. The central comment of election results for the SPO was that the "boycott has not succeeded". By shouting about the failure of the boycott, the SPO actually tried to divert attention from the fact that by participation in the elections it had given them legitimacy, although they had failed to bring about the change which the SPO had dreamt about during the campaign. If the leader of the Democratic Party is actually removed from the post of the mayor of Belgrade, it will be a serious sign that dissolution of Together coalition might be expected elsewhere in the cities of Serbia where it had won power in the local elections. A firm agreement between the SPS and the SPO about division od power between these two parties on all levels implies something of the kind.

There are other opinions which forecast that the party of Vuk Draskovic may overestimate its force. According to this assumption, the possibility of an agreement between Milosevic and Seselj seems quite certain, pursuant which the SRS would offer support to a minority government, similarly as before. This means that they would not actually share out ministerial posts, but they would vote in favour of the government program from their seats in the parliament. If these forecasts come true, a policy of "continuity" awaits Serbia. This certainly means that no changes should be expected primarily in resolving the problem of Kosovo, relations with Montenegro and Republica Srpska. Internally, sale of state property for trifles would continue, as well as further general dilapidation. This would be in harmony with speculations of political analysts who warned that the just completed elections would in fact be elections for distribution of posts from which those who would hold them would divide up among themselves the remains of bankrupt Serbia.

There are speculations that the president of Serbia will not be elected in the second round scheduled for 5 October. About seven hundred thousand votes won by Vuk Draskovic are badly needed by both Lilic and Seselj. It would be a very great risk for the leader of the SPO to openly call his supporters to vote for the candidate of the Socialists. According to the opinion of the majority, probability is greater that this will not happen and that none of the candidates will win the needed majority. Analysts assess that a long period of the rule of an acting president would be very convenient for Milosevic, because in that case he would, in fact, continue to keep Serbia under unquestioned control.

Vesna Vujic

(AIM)