BEGINNING OF THE END OF HARD-CORE NATIONALISM

SDS and the Radicals

Banjaluka, September 19, 1997 (AIM)

Results of local elections in the Republic of Srpska have shown that they will not be what the election of the local self-administration means everywhere in the world, but that voters will continue to choose sides on the basis of general, primarily national, ideas. This is shown by the indisputable success of national parties in all three national communities. This conclusion applies to the general level in both entities, because the distribution of votes by various communes also points to the territorial deployment of political forces.

When it comes to the Republic of Srpska it is quite certain that already at the next parliamentary elections, in a month or two, it will be clear whether any changes have occurred in the Republic of Srpska on the national level. Preliminary results of communal elections for those voters who have voted personally, in other words - excluding voting in absentia, can be taken with a rather large degree of accuracy to represent an expression of political will of the Serbian people in the Republic of Srpska. This picture shows a significant change both in the overall electorate, but also among the voters who opt for parties with expressive national values.

According to the latest data the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) won 37.5 percent of votes in the Republic of Srpska, which is far less than the last year's 54 percent won at the parliamentary elections, while the radicals went up from 13 to 21.3 percent. It is common knowledge that western parts of the Republic of Srpska have placed their confidence in parties which have for years been a true opposition years, while eastern parts, from the far north of Semberija up to southern Herzegovina, are consistently for the national option.

A common political feature for all these parts of the RS is an unexpectedly great success of the Serbian Radical Party(SRS) which, measured by percentages, has significantly increased its share in the political life of the Republic of Srpska. The Serbian Radical Party was a herald and founder of the opposition in the Republic of Srpska. Irrespective of the fact that it was organized in 1993 on the basis of a firm national orientation, imported from Serbia, the SRS showed to the until-then sacrosanct Serbian Democratic Party, a general national movement of the Serbian people of Bosnia and Herzegovina flying on the wings of national interests, that there are different ideas and options and that is possible to have an opposition to the SDS.

Although as the only one and with its ideas and concepts it could not be regarded as a veritable opposition, the SRS made two things possible - the appearance, foundation and resurgence of other parties, primarily of the "left" and "central" orientation and occasional criticism of the ruling SDS. The first criticism concerned crime and the absence of a strong state. Nevertheless, despite good personnel relations of their top leaderships, the two parties demonstrated differences. The SDS, as a sacrosanct ruling party, controlled contacts with the international community, while the "radicals" were allowed to fiercely advocate national ideas. From its very inception in the Republic of Srpska, the radicals' views differed from those of the SDS.

One of the most recent most convincing examples was the Assembly's decision of the seat of the RS Government when, in accordance with their programme, the radicals wanted Banjaluka to become the capital of the Republic of Srpska. Nevertheless, to the very end, including their attendance of the Assembly sessions which Biljana Plavsic dissolved, the radicals remained loyal to their older brother and partner and attended those sessions, despite the fact that both the rest of the opposition as well as the international community considered those sessions as illegal assembly of groups of people from the dissolved Parliament.

Still, the fact that the SRS achieved success was received with some surprise because, apart from some left over last year's posters and several free appearances in the media, it did not organize any campaign. In all likelihood this success is a reflection of not only history of its inception as "something different from the SDS", but also of the fact that the internal connective tissue of the Serbian Democratic Party had started to fall apart during the last constitutional-political-presidential crisis.

Numerous followers of the hitherto ruling political party were confused by accusations of Biljana Plavsic for crime and a totalitarian authority of a communist type. At the same time, many of them still felt a strong national charge which had to be expressed. Therefore, the majority of "turncoats" decided to place their trust in the radicals believing that they will represent the Serbian national interests in the best possible way and that they were less shaken by the most recent crisis in the SDS. The fact that the SRS will remain an alternative national political option is also evident in the western parts of the Republic of Srpska where the SDS expected a convincing victory. The number of communes in the eastern parts of the RS is smaller than in the western regions so that in many instances personal contacts and reputation were decisive.

The fact that they have never been in power so that the voters had nothing to hold against them also contributed to the present reputation of the radicals. Consequently, they won in Novo Sarajevo, Ugljevik, Serbian part of Orasje and some other places where the names of the SDS policy proponents were identified with crime. In a situation when Biljana Plavsic announced her fight against the current power holders with a flourish of trumpets under a banner of a struggle against crime, for many strongly nationally oriented and honest citizens casting their votes for the Serbian Radical Party was an honourable compromise with themselves. Percentage-wise the radicals have achieved more than at the last parliamentary elections and all that "increment" could come from nowhere else, but the disintegrating SDS. Many are inclined to see these parties as two wings of one and the same party and claim that SDS and SRS have been in coalition all the time. True, this functioned that way while the SDS was in power.

Things will most probably look much different with reversed roles, i.e. when the radicals start exercising power in some places. An important question is whether in that case they will keep good brotherly and sisterly relations or will the until-yesterday ally in the opposition ranks forget its older sister.

In this whole story the fact that the Serbian Radical Party of the Republic of Srpska maintains good relations with Seselj and his radicals in Serbia is not to be overlooked. These connections stretch as far as the strict observance of the hierarchy and discipline, which can have far-reaching consequences for the Republic of Srpska. How far-reaching will depend on the environment and how much real power will the radicals have in certain places. In any case, the people of the Republic of Srpska, irrespective of one-time slinging of mud at Serbia and its authorities, still care very much for their "brothers over the Drina river" so that a joint Serbian Radical Party is for the majority of them one of the ways for these wishes to come true.

Lately frequently emphasized fact that Slobodan Milosevic has a decisive power over Vojislav Seselj, leader of all the radicals on the territory of former Yugoslavia, did not have much influence on those who had decided to vote precisely for them. In some places the Serbian Radical Party will have to take full responsibility for the power it won and in others to share that responsibility or assume its part in the authorities together with the Serbian Democratic Party. This position is quite different compared to the previous one - when it was formally in opposition and therefore without any responsibility, while practically in power with all the fringe benefits. Now comes the time when the radicals, as a part of at least communal authorities, will have to fill them with their own personnel and take personal responsibilities for them. This essentially different position demands for it to re-examine its relations with other forces - not only opposition, but also its partner to date - the SDS. This re-examination will have to evolve in several directions - in places where the radicals are in power it will concern their relations with other political options, and in environments in which they share the power with the SDS they will have to decide how to act as a part of authorities, and there where they are in the opposition the problem will be what attitude to take towards the ruling forces.

Finally, there remains a question - how to go to the extraordinary parliamentary elections which are to be organized in the Republic of Srpska by the end of the year. In any case, every political party in the Republic of Srpska, and consequently the Serbian Radical Party as the oldest and one of the three with the most developed infrastructure, has to answer a number of questions on which its further influence on the political life crucially depends. Developments in the electorate obviously demand re-definition of the relations of the Serbian Radical Party and the Serbian Democratic Party. Although it might not seem so, the latest activities of Biljana Plavsic in her conflict with the "Pale group" have shaken political parties which declare themselves as the national, disturbing the stable hitherto relations within the authorities and the future policy.

Dejan Novakovic