RISE OF RADICALS, DECLINE OF SOCIALISTS

Election Results in Republica Srpska

AIM Banja Luka, 16 September, 1997

According to the initial and unofficial data in majority of municipalities in RS, the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) won a difficult and close victory in the local elections. The Serb Radical Party (SRS), extreme nationalistic party with the seat in Belgrade, at the head of which is Dr Vojislav Seselj, ranked second according to the number of votes won. Director of the headquarters of the SDS, Vlado Vrkes, called the victory of the SDS a triumph and explained that it was a proof that the electorate of RS backed those who had obeyed the Constitution and preserved the parliament, obviously alluding to the defeat of political options which supported Biljana Plavsic.

Such results of the local elections in Republica Srpska brought many surprises even to those who are believed to be connoisseurs of political circumstances. Although the victory of the ruling national parties was not questioned by any forecasts, hardly anyone expected that an enormous number of votes would be given to parties of ultra-nationalistic orientation.

The first and foremost surprise is the rise of the Radicals. This national option inspired with the ideal of Greater Serbia and Chetnik ideology in last year's parliamentary elections won hardly about 12 per cent of votes and it ranked third among political parties according to the number of votes it won. According to the results of these, local elections, the Radicals will rank second with over 20 per cent of votes.

This success is not the result of a new policy and a new political strategy. The Radicals did not even try very hard in the campaign. Two tragedies in the leadership of the party - heavily injured president of the party Nikola Poplasen in a traffic accident and suicide of secretary general Miodrag Rakic - resulted in abstention from the campaign. Internal splits in the biggest municipal organizations (Banja Luka, Doboj, Derventa) seriously disturbed party unity, shook up its structure and forecast a humble result in the local elections. It turned out, however, that in current circumstances laws of political probability are not valid and that there are political processes which proceed according to certain internal political logic.

The election success of the Radicals is directly proportional to the unsuccessfulness of the SDS. The decline of popularity of the ruling party can completely be attributed to the Radicals. This transfer of the electorate from one national option to the other shows its disorientation and discontent which seeks new refuge in nationalism. The Radicals are simply a replacement of the same thing but in a new package. However correct the opinion may be that transfer of nationalists from one party to the other is a sure sign of fatigue of parties with the nationalist prefix and announcement of their further stratification at the time when they are faced with defeat of the proclaimed (pre)war policy, the success of the Radicals confirms that the nationalistic passions are not diminishing and that for a long time to come they might continue to determine social processes.

Success of the Radicals opens many doubts about constitution and operation of the future local authorities. The assessments are that the SDS and the SRS will constitute coalition authorities on the local level which will operate without too many problems. This is a logical conclusion based on the fact that on the global level these parties operate in an open coalition. However, on the local level, there are disagreements and open animosities between these two parties which make such assessments doubtful. Indeed, a large number of local organizations of the SRS have emerged from rejected SDS cadre and former members of the SDS who had abandoned the ruling party because they disagreed with its policy. These members of the SRS manifest great resistance to arrogant and haughty local organizations of the SDS which often treated them as internal enemies. Due to that, unexpected coalitions could emerge on the local level in which the Radicals would take the lead.

The other surprise of these elections is the poor result of the Socialists. They won absolute victory in Sipovo, in Mrkonjic Grad they won 50 per cent of the votes, in Novi Grad 38 per cent, in Celinac 37, in Gradiska 25 per cent, 23 per cent both in Teslic and Knezevo, 18 per cent in Bijeljina, 16 in Brcko, 11 in Modrica, and in towns of eastern part of RS 15 per cent on the average. According to many assessments, the Socialist Party was expected to rank second in these elections. Such assessments were based on their well developed party organization, experienced cadre, organizational and financial support of the Socialist Party of Serbia, and their well organized and successful election campaign. Everything that the Radicals did not have, the Socialists had, developed to perfection. By pure logic of the absurd, everything that the Socialist had expected to get, unexpectedly fell to the share of the Radicals.

The Socialists will seek the culprit for their failure in Belgrade. Milosevic again failed to give them support and help they had expected. Not only did he fail to help them, he even put spokes in their wheels wherever he went. Everything that diligent Socialists in RS did for their promotion, Milosevic sent up in smoke at each meeting with Krajisnik. Not even the least informed members of the Socialist Party of RS failed to wonder why Milosevic was talking with Krajisnik when the whole world was refusing to do it and how it was possible that Belgrade supported Pale, and the Socialist Party of RS supported Biljana Plavsic. If Milosevic with his policy to Pale and his attitude towards the Socialists in RS confused even his most zealous supporters in RS, one could expect nothing from the masses of indecisive and confused voters but to hurry into the embrace of nationalist Vojislav Seselj.

Those who had wished to see Milosevic in the election campaign in Banja Luka will wish never to see him again even on the screens of their television sets. The leadership of the Socialist Party in RS will have to reconsider well for how long they will continue to obey instructions coming from Belgrade and whether it is not high time for them to free themselves of tutorship of the "big brother" and start towards independence and transformation into modern social democracy. It will be very dangerous if the apparent glory of victory in Banja Luka is proclaimed to be a big victory which will be attributed to wisdom of Belgrade. The local independent television and President of the Republic Biljana Plavsic deserve more merit for this small success than to all the speeches and election rhetoric of the Socialists.

With this outcome the elections have announced development of political pluralism in two directions. The first one will be marked by further weakening of the SDS and gaining of strength of authentic opposition parties with obvious national orientation such as the Serb Party of Krajina and Posavina, the Democratic Patriotic Block and the Democratic Party. At the same time, the Serb Radical Party will experience differentiation and internal division, which will result in formation of new parties of the centre with local leaders. On the other hand, it is possible to expect the process of differentiation on the left as well, where the influence of the Socialist Party will diminish, and the power of Social Democrats will increase.

The results which have been made public will not differ much after votes of those who have voted in absence are counted. That is why it is already quite certain that the local elections will mark the beginning of a very important phase in democratization of RS. Success of the Socialists in Banja Luka and their victory in Sipovo, Mrkonjic Grad and Celinac, as well as the victory of Social Democrats in Laktasi and Srbac, will lead RS into a phase of political pluralism the effects of which will soon become visible even to the ordinary mortals. If the initiated processes continue, RS could soon leave the phase of darkness characterized by multiparty dictatorship, obscure nationalism and political irrationality.

Branko Peric