State at Stake

Montenegro on the Eve of the Elections

AIM Podgorica, 11 September, 1997

At the extraordinary session of the Montenegrin Assembly, half jokingly and more seriously, Momir Bulatovic, the current President of the Republic ironically asked presidential candidate Milo Djukanovic: "Whom will the citizens be able to vote for at the presidential elections on October 5?" and observed: "They will be able to choose between Milo Djukanovic and Milo Djukanovic!"

The allusion was clear: a part of once monolithic and now hopelessly divided ruling Montenegrin party (DPS) which retained legality, disputed Momir Bulatovic the right to run for presidency against their favourite Djukanovic. After the Montenegrin Republican Electoral Commission under mysterious circumstances first accepted Bulatovic's candidacy on behalf of DPS, invoking Article 5 of the Law on the Election of President of Montenegro the Constitutional Court of Montenegro annulled the Commission's decision. Namely, the mentioned Article states that one political group can nominate for president only one representative.

And when even those who are no legal experts concluded that this was a generally binding and enforceable decision as that part of the Constitution which regulates the republican electoral legislation does not envisage the second-instance, Momir Bulatovic decided to pursue the matter further. In his appeal to the Federal Constitutional Court Bulatovic complained that he was denied the right to equality which the Federal Constitution grants to all citizens. Soon after that the Federal Constitutional Court initiated proceedings for the evaluation of constitutionality of Article 5 of the Montenegrin Law on the Election of President and finally yesterday, five days before the envisaged deadline for the registration of presidential candidates (September 15), it proclaimed the said Article unconstitutional. While rejecting Momir Bulatovic's constitutional appeal the Court at the same time granted him the right to appear at the elections just as he wished - as a DPS candidate.

Although in the opinion of the political and expert public this obviously politically motivated decision has seriously shaken the foundations of the Federation, that will hardly change the substance of the Montenegrin pre-electoral reality. The main competitors at the forthcoming presidential elections, no matter who nominates them, will be the leaders of two opposed concepts which cropped up from the once monolithic DPS: Momir Bulatovic and Milo Djukanovic. True, Bulatovic would much rather have in front of his name a "trade mark" of the party which was victorious at all elections organized in Montenegro in the past decade. This would certainly represent an important psychological point in his clash with his opponent, especially when the time comes to say who had actually broken away from the original party principles. However, disputes regarding the candidacy only helped the Montenegrin public polarize and side with the policy of one of the two candidates.

In simplified terms Bulatovic is seen as a guarantor of the preservation of the common state ("without any alternative") and a man determined to stop the state and any other type of criminal and its proponents who are, as a rule, also "separatists". On the other hand, Djukanovic is an advocate of a federal state with an equitable and dignified Montenegro which will quickly integrate into the international community and be a driving force of development of the third Yugoslavia, which in no case can be unitarian.

Somewhat different concept of Montenegrin reality and future could have, but did not originate, from the Montenegrin opposition. Parliamentary parties which do not aspire after the DPS positions have possibly never been more democratic, but also helpless than today. According to the cumulative results from the last elections (in November 1996 - 110 thousand) the parties of the Popular Unity (Narodna sloga) - the Liberal Alliance and the People's Party, national parties of the Albanians and Moslems, as well as SDP, could have played an important role in the presidential race had they opposed the divided DPS electorate (150 thousand) with a joint candidate. Still, the fact that they have publicly stated that no regular conditions have been created for the elections and that they will not have their candidate, is but a confession of their own impotence.

Without any serious side competition both Djukanovic and Bulatovic will know how to win some of that which belongs to the recognizable political organizations which this time will abstain. Thus, the Prime Minister will combine his campaign among the advocates of the Montenegrin state independence with a wholehearted support of the preservation of the common state. The current president will endeavor to win over the electorate of parties with "Serbian orientation" which will most certainly find the promises of a survival of the common state with Serbia "at all costs" pleasing.

In all this Prime Minister Djukanovic undoubtedly shows much more sense for political marketing. His propaganda slogan "That's the man we need" has been promoted in Montenegro by people whose names are uttered with respect: film director Emir Kusturica, actor Ljuba Tadic, football player Predrag Mijatovic, field-ball player Maja Bulatovic...Presented in an attractive marketing packaging his programme is up-to-date, open to the world, turned towards the young. The support of the University, youth organizations, police and many state institutions is not to be neglected.

On the other hand, Momir Bulatovic openly shows that his target group represent people born in the first half of this century. His pre-election posters and messages have not yet appeared, and why should they when he is an embodiment of the policy so well known to all the citizens of Montenegro, and beyond. His social demagogy and unreserved orientation towards Yugoslavia will not leave indifferent the pensioners, veterans and people from lower social and educational strata whose wishes and needs for better life have been restricted by their protracted exposure to xenophobia.

The story about two presidential candidates and their ambitions undoubtedly points to the hopeless situation of those who will by their independent nominations render legitimacy to these elections. Dr.Novica Stanic from Pljevlja, member of the leadership of the seceded National Party with his "hard-core" Serbian orientation will most probably manage to "chop off" a few thousand votes from Momir Bulatovic, although his political followers count with as much as 30 thousand. Similar or somewhat lower will be the rating of Dr.Slobodan Vujacic, professor from Niksic who already tried his luck with independent candidacy in 1990. Namely, at that time he won an enviable number of votes which secured him a place on the Montenegrin Presidency, an authority which operated until the 1992 constitutional amendments. Chances of Bora Miranovic, an actor, body-builder, poet and self-styled king of Montenegro are measured by pro milles, which by no means excludes the possibility of him giving a new tone to the presidential race.

In Montenegro many compare the situation on the eve of October elections with that in 1992. Namely, at that time the two competitors - Momir Bulatovic and Dr.Branko Kostic - aspired to be the DPS candidates, but in the end the current Montenegrin President was the one to succeed. However, the roles were differently assigned: at that time Bulatovic was considered a guarantor of the defence of the Montenegrin interests in the Federation and Kostic, as a hard-core Serb, determined to aid the uniting of the "Serbian lands". According to the general belief voters who do not hold the DPS dear were those who had decided- the Albanians, Moslems and Montenegrins, followers of liberals and social-democrats.

The fact that Bulatovic is now playing the one-time role of Kostic and Djukanovic is playing his signifies that history may repeat itself. In any case, the citizens of Montenegro are used to patience and opting for the logic of "lesser evil" will most probably vote for the candidate who is prepared to snap back at the official Belgrade until the time when the lower limit of endurance will be determined. Many are inclined to believe that that man is - none other than Milo Djukanovic.

Nebojsa REDZIC

(AIM)