BELGRADE - ASSEMBLY CONTROLLED BY THE SOCIALISTS AGAIN?

Serbia Before Presidential and Parliamentary Elections

AIM Belgrade, 1 September, 1997

What will Serbia be like on 22 September, the day after parliamentary and presidential elections? This is the question nobody dares give a definite answer, and even political analysts find it difficult to predict anything about post-election Serbia.

For the second time in seven years of the multiparty state, a part of the democratic opposition has decided to boycott the elections (for the first time 1992 elections for the federal parliament were boycotted). The Democratic Party (DS), the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and the Civic Alliance of Serbia (GSS), accompanied by another ten odd minor non-parliamentary parties called the citizens to remain at home on 21 September. Contrary to them, members of the left coalition, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), the Yugoslav United Left (JUL) and New Democracy (ND), the Serb Radical Party (SRS) and the Serb Revival Movement (SPO) are campaigning in favour of going to the polls. The Voivodina Coalition, two biggest Hungarian parties, SVM and DZVM, Sulejman Ugljanin List for Sandzak also intend to try their luck among the voters.

The race for president of Serbia was entered by Zoran Lilic (SPS-JUL-ND), Vojislav Seselj (SRS), Vuk Draskovic (SPO), Nebojsa Covic (Democratic Alternative), Vuk Obradovic (Social Democracy), Mile Isakov (Voivodina) and Sandor Pal (DZVM). After Milosevic's two mandates at this post, Serbia is bound to get its new head, but, it seems, rather something like a master of ceremonies, and not as a statesman.

At these, fourth in a row, parliamentary elections in Serbia, most probably nothing new will happen. All serious preliminary investigations show that in the next mandate the republican assembly will continue to be controlled by the Socialists, and that its protege will come to its head, if not in the first, but in the second round of the elections for certain. This is especially true in view of the fact that the republican assembly has amended the election law on the eve of the campaign and increased the number of electoral districts. Mathematicians claim that in this way the SPS ensured 130 out of 250 deputies. The majority is, therefore, warranted in advance.

This could be the end of the story of the forthcoming competition of political forces in Serbia. However, uncertainty begins concerning possibly severe proportions of the announced boycott. Both the parties which are running in the elections and those which will boycott them are just getting ready for a serious campaign and anti-campaign, respectively. The republican electoral commission has joined the campaign. Completely contrary to its duties and responsibilities (interpretation of election actions and their violations), the commission has declared the anti-election campaign illegal, that is contrary to the constitution. Parties in boycott reacted immediately by an lodging an appeal against Balsa Govedarica, president of the commission. This judge of the supreme court of Serbia has become "famous" during the last year's theft of votes in the local elections when he was also the head of the central electoral commission.

Along with that, parties which are not running in the elections have submitted a demand to the constitutional court of Serbia for evaluation of the law on electoral districts which was adopted during the summer illegally. In view of the fact that the Socialist majority has practically by violation of norms adopted this new law, the destiny of the opposition proposal at constitutional court can easily be predicted. This court is also controlled by the SPS, because the judges have many times before proved their loyalty to demands of the Socialists although constitutional rules dictated otherwise. (With a single honourable exception of judge Slobodan Vucetic).

The election law which divided Serbia into 29 instead of nine electoral districts was the drop that spilled the glass and forced a certain number of parliamentary opposition parties not to go to the polls under unfair conditions. Zoran Djindjic, president of the Democratic Party, says that his party will not campaign against the elections, but rather for fair and just election conditions. Vojislav Kostunica, leader of the DSS, stresses that the essence of the anti-election program is the beginning of comprehensive political changes in Serbia. Vesna Pesic, president of the GSS, shares a similar opinion and notes that time has come for a shift in Serbia towards a new, democratic course of development.

It was not an easy decision to boycott the elections for the opposition parties. Many analysts believe that this is a hazardous decision, because those who are not present in the parliament can very easily be politically forgotten. On the other hand there are also those who believe that abstention from the elections can prove to be a political profit. In the long run, those who have decided to boycott the elections in the current conditions will definitely make a political profit in the future.

In the Civic Alliance of Serbia, the starting point for the decision to boycott the elections was that the citizens of Serbia had last winter, during the protest, expressed a firm and unambiguous wish for a change of the existing political system. After this winter's "walks", Serbia certainly is not the same, the political capital has remained after it, and in this party it is believed that it should be used as the basis for a struggle for fair elections and democratic revival of Serbia.

Public opinion polls, primarily those made by the Institute of Social Sciences, point out that the boycott has high chances to succeed primarily in cities, especially in Belgrade. The part of the opposition which does wish to appear in the elections in September is still faced with the difficult task to explain its decision to the voters in the interior of the country.

The front for boycott of the elections has seriously been weakened by the decision of the Serb Revival Movement to run in them. In most of the cities and towns posters of this party and its presidential candidate Vuk Draskovic have been covered by blue-and-yellow announcements of the DS with the slogan "enough" and "boycott". The war with posters is just an illustration of the severe verbal war between yesterday's excellent collaborators in the Together coalition. Those who are in favour of the boycott reproach Draskovic for having decided to run in the elections giving by doing it legitimacy to the Socialists for another four-year mandate. There are opinions that the leader of the SPO is in this way running a risk of experiencing a debacle which he will never recover from.

It is still an enigma for all what has Slobodan Milosevic offered Draskovic in order to win him over to keep the Socialists company in the elections. All newspaper articles which refer to well-informed sources speak of promised ministerial posts both in the republican and the federal government, with figures ranging from eight to ten such posts for the SPO. Ambassadors' posts are also mentioned. Others, who are informed how local secretariats operate speak about large "grey" flows of money. According to them, it would be sufficient if a deal was agreed about "not interfering" and millions of German marks would be left in the cashbox of this political party. What political agreement was reached will be clear by the end of September.

What can be assumed at this moment is that members of the next republican government, along with the Socialists, Leftists and New-Democrats, will be from the SPO. Who will be the parliamentary opposition? All things considered, the oppositionist opinion in the national assembly will be reserved for Seselj's Radicals and probably a few deputies of Voivodina coalition and Hungarian parties, if they too do not get hold of a ministry or two.

The biggest part of the opposition in the forthcoming period will remain outside the parliament. This part will be headed by Democrats, once in the leadership of the original democratic party, and nowadays each at the head of their own parties with the democratic prefix. It remains to be seen whether they will survive the extra-parliamentary struggle. Their greatest force are the citizens who are ready to support them by refusing to go to the polls. Evaluations from the Institute of Social Sciences are that along with the regular abstainers and undecided voters the number of which reach the figure of 40 per cent of the electorate, it is possible to count on additional ten to fifteen per cent committed boycotters. According to this calculus, the boycott could be purposeful.

It seems that the Socialists fear that a significant number of voters will remain at home, so the propaganda in favour of voting is becoming more and more aggressive. Legitimacy of the elections would be badly questioned if half of the electorate, meaning nearly four million citizens, failed to vote.

When speaking of presidential candidates, it seems that the only thing which is uncertain is who will run in the second round with the unquestioned Lilic: Draskovic or Seselj? The situation for the former has become very difficult because a large number of his potential voters have already decided to boycott the elections. There should be no doubt that the president of the SPO is well aware of that fact and that for him the greatest success would be if he reinforced the leading position of his party by his presidential candidacy. For him, it can be prestigious if he comes out ahead of Seselj by the number of votes, and SPO ranks second after the Socialists. Potential million of votes in favour of Draskovic (that is how many were won by the Together coalition in November elections) are already lost.

The leader of the Radicals relies on his seven hundred sixty thousand votes the SRS won in the last elections. He might also, however, win a part of the electorate of the SPS, especially when one knows that the SPS and the SRS share the same group of voters. Lilic's candidacy is very difficult to endanger if the Socialists count on the figure of million and eight hundred thousand votes known in advance. A few hundred less in the September elections would be no obstacle for the protege of the SPS to win the race for the head of Serbia.

Vesna Vujic

(AIM)