PRE-ELECTION REGROUPING

Opposition and Politicl Crisis in RS

AIM Banja Luka, 23 August, 1997

The opposition parties of Republica Srpska were confused by the decision of President of RS Biljana Plavsic to form her own party based on the original program of the Serb Democratic Party of seven years ago. For about ten days before Biljana Plavsic officially declared her decision on formation of "her" party, there had hardly been any public statements of the opposition, which was a reliable sign of regrouping on the political scene. Whether the cause for that was a lack of ideas in the transition from the phase of support to president of RS to the phase of searching for practical steps for the way out of the crisis, or re-examination of political forces, it is hard to assume. One thing is certain, though, and this is that it marks clarification of the situation on the pre-election political scene.

By her decision to form the party and by establishing it on the original foundations of the SDS Biljana Plavsic expects much more support in the SDS itself than it might appear at first sight. Early parliamentary elections would not just make the support she enjoys legitimate, but also precisely measure its range. To what extent the opposition parties (and which ones) would fit into this plan it is hard to tell at the moment, especially because some of them, despite her decision to form her own party, continue to offer their support to Plavsic and follow her at rallies.

Some of the opposition parties also declare themselves to be successors of the original program foundations of the SDS, primarily the ones established by Jovan Raskovic. Such are the Serb Patriotic and the Democratic Patriotic Party. Others have similar views, but they have neither theoretically defined them yet, nor do they consistently implement them ideologically. Whether some of these parties will join the party of Biljana Plavsic or not, does not depend only on their ideological and political orientation, but also on vanity of their leaders. Knowing their individual characteristics, but also the development course of the parties they head, as well as their jealous wish to "preserve" their parties, it is difficult to believe that they will agree to be assimilated in the new political creation of Biljana Plavsic. Therefore, it is highly questionable whether some parties support the President of RS only by inertia, believing that joint activities with her can still be useful for them, or whether they are sincerely in favour of initiating changes in the society.

The opposition parties which failed to participate in actions of support to the President are the Social-Liberal Party which believes that the conflict Plavsic-Pale is an SDS inter-party struggle, the Serb Radical - believed by many to be a satellite of the SDS, because they were the only ones who participated at the last assembly session held after dissolution, then the National Radical Party Nikola Pasic, the only monarchist party in RS, as well as the Yugoslav Left which advocates changes and struggle against crime, but does not back up Biljana Plavsic. Other, mostly minor and newly-founded parties are silent, obviously waiting for division of money for the elections.

The total of sixty odd parties will participate at the forthcoming local elections in RS, so the real question is what is the opposition in RS nowadays and what is its power? Just a few of these - such as the SDS, the Socialist Party or the Serb Radical Party - have organizations in all parts of RS. Some of the parties founded two or three years ago have twenty or thirty odd hastily patched up and unstable boards, mostly in the north of RS. This testifies about their ambitions which are mostly limited to humble attempts to survive in politics. Many of them do not even wish to have a clear and comprehensive image of a society they would like to build. And what can be said about minor parties with just four or five boards or local representatives only in the places of their foundation (and residence)?

British foreign minister Robin Cook, during his recent visit to Banja Luka, sharply reproached the opposition by saying that it was impossible to build democracy with such a large number of parties. It is not known whether there have been any other direct suggestions, but 15 largest opposition parties of RS which found joint interest in the coordinating committee for support to decisions of Biljana Plavsic adopted after that a declaration and a statement in which they declared themselves in favour of formation of an expert government immediately after winning the elections, for transfer of the seat of the administration to Banja Luka and for nullification of certain laws, primarily the one on privatization. This document was created during preparations for the visit of American special envoys Holbrooke and Gelbard, and then it was handed to them. In this way the opposition in RS showed that a minimum of joint interests existed, and even a little more than that, which was primarily reflected in the need for joint appearance against the current authorities. But, at that moment President of RS had not announced foundation of her own party yet.

Since Biljana Plavsic is not making many details about her new party public, it is not certain what stand she will take towards the opposition. In view of the fact that during the entire crisis she maintained very loose contacts with the opposition (only one formal meeting), it is not hard to assume that she will comparatively easily and quickly disclaim their support.

An analysis of intentions and objectives for their foundation would probably show that the opposition parties nowadays in RS consist of groups of people gathered around a prominent and courageous individuals who did not see their chance in the ruling SDS as a movement or dropped out of it in different phases. Almost not a single one of them can define the social stratum it recruits not only its members but also its voters from, so that in each campaign they just state global goals and found their propaganda on criticism of the authorities.

That something is moving, however, is proved by the latest activities of the opposition in the direction of forming of three blocks - the left, the centre and the right. Vice-president of the Socialists of RS, Dragutin Ilic, recently invited all moderately left parties and parties of the left centre to join the left block. It is expected that it will be a large group of "labour", "communist" and various social democratic parties majority of which already recognize leadership of the Socialist Party. The other two blocks are still searching for their position, especially because a large struggle is going on for the position at the centre. In any case, parties which have the word "democratic" in their names are mostly approaching this group, along with a certain number of undefined ones (national, geographically deteremined and similar parties). Some parties close to social democratic ideas are considering becoming part of this block counting on the fact that in case of any political processes the electorate of the "centre" also gathers undecided voters of the left.

What will remain on the right, nobody knows yet. the Radicals as the declared opposition, do not manifest too big a wish to gather and lead related parties and they are getting closer to the ruling SDS every day. The SDS, on the other hand, is doing its best to "squeeze" into the centre, because it suits its efforts to show that its coalition partners are the Socialists, but not so much the local ones as much as those in Serbia. It seems that the party of Biljana Plavsic will be the one which will lead the right wing, and who will join it from among the opposition still cannot be confirmed with certainty by anyone.

Dejan Novakovic