OPPOSITION PING-PONG

AIM Zagreb, 15 July, 1997

After April elections for the Chamber of Districts of the Assembly and local self-administration it has become clear, and after the persidential elections in June it was underlined twice that on the Croatian political scene a big spring cleaning is approaching. Except for the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) which has won more seats in the Assembly and more power than it had itself expected, and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) which has from a party which had barely entered the parliament in 1992 developed into the strongest oppositionist power in the country, all the others are losers. The once strong Croat Social Liberal Party (HSLS) fragmentized by numerous internal conflicts, without a recognizable identity, is definitely sliding towards self-destruction. The Croat Peasants' Party (HSS) is losing strength, and the same has already happend to the Croat Party of Right (HSP) and the Croat National Party (HNS), while some other parties both from the extreme right and the extreme left have practically never been a true force.

    Defeat in the elections especially of the HSLS and the

HSS, parties which like to say for themselves that they belong in the political centre, is now being explained and justified in various ways. In this washing of their dirty laundry in public their targets are the HDZ and Tudjman, but also Racan's SDP. The Liberals, both the current president Vlado Gotovac and the former Drazen Budisa, who is openly announcing his own comeback, are warning of the danger of bipolarity, that is of division of Croatia into supporters of the right and of the left, whle the president of the Peasants Zlatko Tomcic goes a step further and blames the SDP for his own election ill success. As concerning the Liberals, it is quite evident that the party is falling to pieces and that it has split into two factions, equally politically compromised, and that the regular party convention in the fall will quite certainly bring about nothing but a definite split, in other words that Budisa and Gotovac, after series of mutual accusations, simply cannot go on together. Ideas about a "third" man have appeared who would allegedly be able to reconcile the irreconcilable and prolong the agony, but in fact the HSLS is paying the bill for its inconsistency.

In the HSS they are also discussing who the culprits for the failure are, and on one side is president Tomcic and on the other assembly deputy Marinko Filipovic and the respectable member Tuhomil Radja with a few other influential people. Tomcic, who had done everything in order to help the HDZ to win the April elections and who is directly responsible for the defeat in Zagreb, is all of a sudden pretending to be a great enemy of the HDZ and chased away from his party the two city deputies with whose help the HDZ had taken over power in Zagreb. It is indicative that these two deputies are mentioning the fear of return of communists as the pretext for their behavior, in other words, the same phrase which their president had used to refuse the coalition with the SDP. Tomcic has now gone even one step further and decided to ban the coalition with reformed communists even after the elections when the voters of the HSS had definitely been recognized as satellites of the HDZ and when the HDZ, with the help of the Peasants and the Liberals had already taken over power in the districts and cities which he had lost in the elections.

But Tomcic would not have been Tomcic if he had not found culprits for his scheming with Tudjman whom he sometimes sharply attacks: "...it is the SDP which is obviously accepting the role in bipolarization of the political scene". After this false accusation, a response arrived of the vice-president of the SDP, Davorko Vidovic: "I appreaciate the wish of Mr. Tomcic to change the headlong fall of his party into the chasm of political insignificance, but let him admit, if not publicly, at least to himself, his own mistakes and wrong evaluations, let him reconsider the results of his political moves and decisions. I wish to believe that they actually were mistakes and not a deliberate policy of the HSS aimed to achieve this which has been achieved. We wish our collegues in the old and respectable Croatian party every success, but we cannot achieve it for them. As concerning the SDP", Vidovic said, "and its results, we are neither euphoric, nor are we happy that somebody else does not enjoy as much respect and support as we do. Moreover, we have wished for, and still do, strong and respectable parties as a warranty of stability and as a sign of European characteristics on the Croatian political scene. A two-party system is not our choice, we do not believe that it is the future of a civic multiparty Croatia. Tomcic's maliciousness when he resents the comparatively good election results of the SDP reminds me of a lamentation of, for example, a Srijem peasant who sowed wheat of poor quality, and then for his bad crop accuses his neighbour of having a more successful harvest from the same rich land".

The SDP has rarely chosen to publicly express such sharp reaction to any opposition party (even if it were just formally that), but it is evident that it was assessed that the so-called centrists should finally be exposed. Political bipolarization has happened and now the only question is who will be able to win over the political centre, that is the enormous part of the electorate which is fed up of the HDZ, but for which the SDP is too much to the left. It has become evident that the HSLS, the HSS and the HNS such as they are now, regardless of the extent to which they have been ruined by the moles from the HDZ, are not attractive for the Croatian voters any more. Racan therefore rightfully says that the opposition parties should reach an agreement about cooperation and stop this ping-pong, and that it would be wise to use the summer political breathing space to see where they stand, and not just keep pointing their fingers at the militarism of the HDZ.

While the opposition parties are haggling and while conflicts within once significant political paries are going on, the HDZ is rubbing its hands and pouring oil on the fire. For instance, it showed its arrogance and how it sees democracy when for the vacancy in the Zagreb city assembly instead of Dorica Nikolic who had become vice-mayor and her whole party unit was suspended because of it, a candidate of the suspended unit was elected and not the one nominated by the leadership of the Liberals.

    This latest example, as well as a series of others

from other cities, shows that the current leaders of the opposition parties will not be capable of bridging the evident splits. It can therefore be expected that the bipolarization will continue, but the question is until when? In other words, will new names soon appear which will manage to attract Croatian voters who seem to be fed up with the spent Gotovac, Budisa, Mesic, Tomcic? Unfortunately, there is not much time for somethiing of the kind, because the Croats will go to the polls again in 1999 when the Chamber of Representatives of the Assembly will be elected. The only novelty for the time being is that Dr Stipe Suvar is announcing formation of a new party, but this is not what Croatia needs. The opposition, if it really wishes to be that, should learn a lesson from the SDP which has with its persistent work and consistency created its first stars from anonymous persons such as Zeljko Antunovic, Mato Arlovic, Davorko Vidovic, attracting people who had never been members of the communist party to join them. This summer has started with political fever, and the question is whether by autumn heads will cool down or whether trends which are primarily favourable for the HDZ will continue?

GOJKO MARINKOVIC

(AIM)