PRESERVATION OF POWER BY ALL MEANS

Pre-Election Nervousness

PRESERVATION OF POWER BY ALL MEANS Completely convinced that the people exist for its sake and not the other way round, striving to reinforce its power, the regime has for years at the same time undermined its position, which is a fact that has become most evident before the forthcoming elections, when the majority in the republican parliament is manifesting impotence to get the job done, so it is resorts to major violations of the rules of procedure

AIM Belgrade, 14, July, 1997

The attention of the Yugoslav public is greatly focused on what is going on in Pale, Banja Luka, Podgorica, so the impression is that tranquility prevails in Belgrade, the centre of the parent land. But, this is only the impression at first sight, because emergency sessions of the Serbian parliament are quickly following each other, which proves best that an atmosphere of a state of emergency is being created at the centre, too. Especially because a considerable rise of nervousness is evident in the ranks of the ruling party.

There is no doubt that the regime has plenty of reason for concern. Although it has a majority, the Socialist Party is not very successful in squeezing draft laws through parliament, intended primarily to ensure a safe victory in the forthcoming elections. The experience with the elections for local authorities seriously shook up the former self-confidence of the regime, so that nowadays its intention is obviously to lay down the rules of the games most convenient for itself before the test of confidence in the electorate.

The several-days long second emergency session of the parliament which passed in the attempts of the republican authorities to impose themselves on the local ones and in this way neutralize th victory of the Together coalition in majority of the cities of Serbia, showed that the regime is not capable to efficiently use the parliamentary majority against the parliamentary obstruction of the opposition. That is the reason why the chairman of the assembly, Dragan Tomic was forced to break the rules of procedure, interrupt the second and convene the third emergency session, and accuse a part of the opposition of uncivilized action and increase of operating expenses of the parliament, which amounts to 350 thousand dinars a day.

In order to interrupt a session and convene the next one, consent of the parliament is necessary. Although the Socialists have the majority, Tomic lacked the courage to ask for the opinion of the deputies, because by doing it he would have just given the opportunity to the opposition to spend several days in discussing it, and the time is irretrievably slipping away through the regime's fingers, like sand, so such developments would not at all have been convenient. Due to his intention to move from the post of the republican president to that of the federal, Slobodan Milosevic is extremely interested in leaving well organized conditions in Serbia before he settles down at the new post. His associates, first and foremost the chairman of the assembly, Dragan Tomic, who will be acting president of Serbia when Milosevic moves on to the federation, has not proved to be sufficiently reliable and efficient to carry out the tasks entrusted to him.

That is why the first man of the parliament chose to break the rules of procedure, but despite application of the methods characteristic to authoritarian regimes, it is still uncertain that he will manage to win the race with time, in this competition with the obstruction of the opposition. The essence of the hurry the regime is in lies in the obligation to improve its own image in the electorate, to find a replacement for Slobodan Milosevic at the post of the president of Serbia, and to remain in power at all cost. Developments in the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) in Montenegro, conflicts in the leadership of Republica Srpska about which the connoisseurs claim that they were inspired by instructions from Belgrade, are useful for the Serbian regime in the sense that they have enabled it to shield itself behid them like behind a smoke curtain, convinced that its pre-election foul dealing would pass unnoticed by the public.

At first sight, the impression one gets is that this tactic is not at all badly conceived, but things have started to slip out of hand of the creator of this strategy, so that instead of favourable ones, very unpleasant effects have emerged. It is evident that the Serbian leader, who has sovereignly ruled the political scene of Serbia for years and based on it acquired the attribute of the "factor of regional stability", is having increasing problems in forcing his former pawns to be obedient. Montenegrin president Momir Bulatovic, who was expected to ensure that Milosevic would keep all the competences after passing on to the federation, "slipped on a banana" layed for him by Milo Djukanovic and Svetozar Marovic. The agreement on special cooperation with Republica Srpska he had signed with Momcilo Krajisnik proved to be a dead letter, because the "steel lady" as Biljana Plavsic is called, has no intention to allow Milosevic to interfere in the affairs of the state she is at the head of.

Because of the loss of influence among his federal partners and among the Serbs across the Drina, the Serbian leader also became less interesting for the international community which has realized that Milosevic is not in the position any more to play the role of the master in the Serb ethnic corps. As time goes by, this conviction is spreading like an epidemic and that is another reason why the Serbian Socialists are in a hurry to probe the ground for the forthcoming elections. On the other hand, developments in the Serbian surroundings are moving with motion picture speed, so that everything that was safe and sound just the other day is on slippery ground the very next day. The best illustration for this is Milosevic's position before his election for the new president of FR Yugoslavia. Until the last weekend his election was not at all questioned. Sudden flaring up of the conflict in Montenegrin DPS was a warning from Podgorica that Milosevic's election was not a sure thing any more. That is why the express response arrived from Belgrade that it would respect the will of the majority in the Main Board of the DPS, which may be understood as willingness to sacrifice Bulatovic.

Observers of the political developments in Serbia, but especially those who have been watching closely the ten-year Milosevic's rule, are increasingly convinced that the Serbian leader has not learnt much from the blunders he has made lately. His tactic to strengthen his power by complicating political circumstances offered him a false feeling of security because he managed to temporarily win battles, but lost wars in the long run. Books have been written about the way he rules, but there will be no more material for new ones. It is sufficient, however, to analyze his election victories and see that in time, the mentioned tactic became less and less effective, so that nowadays it could become an unsurmountable barrier for continuation of his political career.

If something like that should happen, which one must admit, hardly anyone can believe because the repertoire of his actions is quite unpredictable so one can never tell what moves he might make in order to achieve his intentions, the question of who had shaken his political positions would be opened. There will probably be plenty of opposition leaders who will immodestly claim that they deserve the merit, but it is hardly possible to find among the opposition an opponent equal to Milosevic. The Together coalition has remained on the level of other parties because it has not understood the meaning of the winter protest of citizens so that its energy has been wasted. Leaders of this coalition experienced the protests as confidence placed in them by the citizens, so that later on they could not agree how big is the share of it that belongs to each of them. The three-month protests were more an expression of revolt against the ruling regime than giving support to the opposition, although the immediate cause was the election theft. The regime has managed to survive primarily because the energy of the masses dispersed in the attempt to accomplish minor objectives. The regime has remained in power but it has continued with the practice that had brought it to the verge of chasm last winter. In the effort to remain in power at all costs, the regime has at the same time weakened itself because it was simply wasted in the attempt, primarily because it had tried to adapt the people to itself, and not the other way round. In such an ambience which is this time full of additional explosive charge, Serbia is expecting the next presidential and parliamentary elections which might take place a few months before schedule, so that is the reason why the haste and nervousness have already started to show.

Ratomir Petkovic

(AIM)