SILENCE AND MESSAGES

Belgrade and the Crisis in RS

Everybody is wondering why president Biljana Plavsic was detained at the Belgrade airport and what the future president of FRY Slobodan Milosevic intends to do

AIM Banja Luka, 8 July, 1997

Are those right who believe that the essence of the attitude of Belgrade authorities towards the developments in Republica Srpska may best be recognized from the arrest, or more precisely, short detention of president Biljana Plavsic at the Belgrade Airport on the last day of June? Can the ridiculous answers of the head of the federal police Zoran Sokolovic explain whose side the authorities in Belgrade are on?

It is interesting, for instance, how the American envoy Robert Gelbard, the open fan of Biljana Plavsic, after talks with Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade on 3 July, without a trace of tartness, could say that the President of Serbia believed "that the incident (detention of Biljana Plavsic at the airport) was exaggerated". Further on, Milosevic said that "she was offered help to return to RS".

What has actually happened at the airport does not even matter any more. In any case, after "help was offered" to her, president Plavsic immediately struck a blow against those who were defending the discharged head of the police Dragan Kijac: she dissolved the parliament of RS.

And as time is going by, it is becoming clearer every day that in this case a decisive move is a good move. That is what forced, after Plavsic's resolute moves, Momcilo Krajisnik, probably the best swimmer in the troubled waters of the past decade, to come out in the open. He first "expressed hope that this problem would be resolved". He tried to set the public at ease by saying "that the leadership is on the way to overcome the problems", and then had to go to the assembly in Pale and thus lost his stand.

The army of RS issued a statement at the very beginning announcing a "neutral stand". The General Staff of the army of RS, the primacy of which was imposed a few months ago by Karadzic and Krajisnik despite Plavsic's giving preference to Mladic and his team, stated that it "esteemed the president of RS and the commander-in-chief" and that it "assessed that in the present circumstances RS is facing a political crisis of state institutions which should be resolved in institutions in which the crisis had emerged". Just as easily as the General Staff reached this conclusion, it equally readily abandoned it (on 6 July) in a letter which was in "strict confidence" sent to the president, but nevertheless appeared in the public on that same day. But the time spent in convincing the army in Pale (which is by the nature of its existence close to Belgrade) brought the president open and, perhaps as time will show, crucial support of the people.

In Expectation of the Left

The president was promptly supported by the (important) Socialist Party of Republica Srpska (SP RS). Whatever might have preceded it, the people and the observers could draw a conclusion that "Slobo was not against Bilja". Vice-president of the SP RS, Dragutin Ilic, offered support to the "institution of the president", which is smaller than Westendorp's support, but it is nevertheless support.

In Belgrade, the spokesman of the Yugoslav United left (JUL), Aleksandar Vulin "seeks some time", because the Left is against crime, but they want to determine who in RS is deeply sunk in lawlessness.

Everybody is waiting for the stand of the Socialist Party of Serbia. But the SPS has no stand. Radio-Television Serbia is publishing unbiased reports. So is the daily Politika.

The opposition in Serbia immediately took sides with president Plavsic. Vuk Draskovic is threatening with new demonstrations. Vojislav Kostunica, whose opinion has significant moral weight in Belgrade political public says: "President of RS Biljana Plavsic has bravely spoken out about state crime. It cannot be denied that she was a patriot and she cannot be reproached for having manifested self-interest at the posts she held".

Zoran Djindjic wrote an open letter to Ms Plavsic which briefly expresses the disposition of the public of Serbia: "I hope that you will succeed, because establishment of the legal state is the only way to avoid problems which are well known to us in cases when organized crime operates under protection of the state".

Vojislav Seselj attacked the president of RS in the manner expected of him: he insisted on climacteric moods of women of her age and the marital status of Ms Plavsic. As a curiosity, the small and insignificant New Communist Party took sides with the Radicals, saying that it did not like the rightist stand of the president of RS and her monarchism.

What does Slobodan Milosevic think about it? He is still silent, so there is only the statement about it of Robert Gelbard. When the Americans are not satisfied with Milosevic's approach to developments which are of their "national interest" they say it quite undiplomatically bluntly. This time Gelbard sent word to the politicians in Pale: "If they are looking for a conflict, they will have it". And he continued without beating about the bush: "President Milosevic firmly promised me that he intended to call all parties, primarily RS, to do their best to have implementation of provisions of the Dayton accords move faster and more consistently". And then: "We support those who are implementing the accords. Ms. Plavsic has given us certain promises and we hope she will meet them".

Three days later, German foreign minister, Klaus Kinkel demanded even more directly from Milosevic to support Biljana Plavsic.

Chances for the President

It is quite clear, therefore, that decisions of Biljana Plavsic imply much more than the struggle against crime. It is also clear that the split between Banja Luka and Pale is in fact much more than a regional conflict burning under the ashes for a long time. Causes of the conflict in the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) have this time been revived by dreadful pressure exerted by the American administration to have at least details of the Dayton accords (which have essentially been badly threatened) implemented, as for example, those which refer to taking the accused for war crimes to the Hague. This cannot be resisted in Belgrade and Zagreb either. Franjo Tudjman has publicly declared a few days ago that "Croatia will exradite the suspects of war crimes".

American Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, who had a few weeks ago seriously worked on it over here, set out on a new offensive at the NATO summit in Madrid. Before anyone else, this brings Radovan Karadzic in the most difficult situation ever.

For the sake of the truth, regardless of how starting position of president Plavsic may seem weak - she is up against the SDS, the assembly, the government, the ministry of the interior, the state security service, the state media and the financial lobby - her chances are still not small. The other side is forgetting that the RS (like the entire B&H) is an occupied country where the main force is the NATO with its stationed troops, strong intelligence activities, and enormous political pressure to move that force. This wind is at the moment blowing into the sails of the president of RS. Second, her other support is the too powerful post of the president designed by Karadzic for himself. And third, people are fed up of tall promises and simultaneous emptying of their pockets. And it seems that silence of the authorities in Belgrade should be counted as the fourth. Regardless of how much happier it would make Milosevic to receive the cooperative Krajisnik on his divan in the Presidency than the "steel lady" from Banja Luka (who has once refused to offer him a hand in front of a number of cameras), he has Albright, Gelbard, Kinkel, the Contact Group, breathing down his neck, but also poverty of the still blocked FRY, which is threatening to develop into uncontrolled rebellion at any moment. That is why it seems that the only thing the future president of FRY can still afford is not to appear as the direct supplier of "shipments" for the Hague.

Petar Reljic