CHRONICLE OF AN ANNOUNCED DEFEAT

AIM Tirana, 2 July, 1997

The Albanian election enigma has finally been resolved by a plebiscitary election of the Socialists, or more precisely a destructive defeat of Sali Berisha. After the end of the first round of the elections, according to the still unofficial results, the Socialists from the opposition have won 73 out of 115 seats in the future parliament, as opposed to only seven won by the Democrats. The result in some of the electoral districts is still unclarified, while in about 20 remaining districts, the second round of the elections will decide about the final results. Almost all historical figures among the Democrats have suffered defeat.

However, more than the result, the real surprise of the Albanian elections is the unusual peace in which they took place, after the highly sharp and dramatic campaign. Despite a certain number of incidents, foreign observers reported about a very peaceful election day. Perhaps about 70 per cent of the voters left their Kalashnykov machine-guns at home while they went to the polls, so there were just a few tragic episodes, the most severe of which was the murder of the president of the electoral commission in Fiera. Representative of a European team of three in charge of monitoring the Albanian elections, Katerine La Lymier, believes that the elections were "acceptable and regular".

Sooner than expected and very peacefully, President Sali Berisha admitted defeat of his party and hinted that he would resign. The demand for his resignation was the central demand of the armed rebels in the south of Albania, ever since the revolt broke out in March. The Albanian leader refused to leave under pressure of weapons and the people's protest, but promised that he would submit resignation if his party lost in the elections. In a television message, the President stated that "the votes and the verdict would be fully respected, equally as he would without dilemma stand behind his former statements". These are the words which imply that his resignation would soon follow.

A specific drop of tensions can be felt in the country, but fear and uncertainty are still present. Majority of stores in the capital are still closed, and people rarely go out. The news about possible resignation of Berisha was welcomed in the capital by shots fired in the air, and a festivity with Kalashnykovs in Valona, the centre of the rebels. But, it seems that the worst has passed. The result of the elections was accepted more readily than it had been expected and the irritated militants have given up confrontations. On Sunday evening, the Ministry of Internal Affairs banned manifestations of parties, celebrations of the winners and protests of the losers, in an effort to avoid possible incidents.

The analysts in Tirana are unanimous in the opinion that voting on Sunday in Albania was a voice of protest or rather, more a specific referendum about the political destiny of President Berisha than a choice between alternatives. Increased support of about two thirds of the votes in favour of the Socialists means for them expressed protest against Berisha and his party. Apart from the traditional Socialist voters, the camp of the Socialists was now joined by the disappointed Democrats, indignant because of the loss of money in pyramidal systems, and maybe even by the group of permanently undecided voters.

Sunday elections have clearly shown that Berisha's regime has lost support not only in the rebellious south, but also in other parts of the country. Apart from the south, the Democrats have suffered defeat even in Tirana, and even in the north. It turned out, therefore, that the scheme of the division between the north and the south is artificial and unrealistic. The greatest blow, however, is probably the one the Democrats have suffered in Tirana, where they did not win in a single electoral unit in the first round. The fact that the elections were not decided in the rebellious south where the Democrats were prevented from conducting their campaign for a single day, seems to have been decisive for the peaceful, unresisted acceptance of the defeat by Sali Berisha.

The Socialists are continuing to celebrate their victory which in fact appears ghastly even to them. After Berisha's departure, they will take over administration of a country which is reigned by anarchy and the task to re-establish the destroyed state, to disarm an entire armed nation, and even, as they have promised, to compensate for the money lost in pyramidal systems. The thing that now seems as their strongest trump card, the figure of two thirds, by tomorrow may turn out to be their greatest problem. And even if the traditional voters of the Socialists may be ready to suffer, the revolted and temporarily disappointed may turn out to be impatient.

The Socialists have promised that they would rule together with Gjinushi's Social Democrats and Ceki's Liberals. The political agreement signed two days before the elections prescribes joint rule, impartial role of the president, independent judiciary, and a pro-European policy of Albania. The Socialists and their allies will get ready to improve relations with the USA, which had deteriorated in the last few months of Berisha's administration.

In fact, the coalition of the Socialists with the others seems unnecessary in conditions in which they have won more than a sufficient parliamentary majority. However, joint rule is observed as the first step in a new historical episode in Albanian policy. According to the pact on the future of Albania signed before the elections in Rome, with mediation of the community Sant Egidio, the opposition will hold significant parliamentary posts, and State Control. Political coexistence is dictated by yet another fact and that is that while the Socialists will control central power, the Democrats will to the same extent keep control over the local authorities. "We should build Albania together", declared the Socialist leader Nano at the first press conference after the elections.

It is still unclarified who will be the first prime minister of Albania, but it is even less clear who will replace Berisha when he leaves. There have been quite a few speculations whether the Socialists would prefer Fino to remain at the head of the cabinet, since he is a known pragmatist and a modern politician. However, Nano has not excluded the possibility of his taking over this "responsibility". The question of the future president is an even greater mystery, who the Socialist see as a weak figure not belonging to any party. They will have legal possibilities for all that, because with two thirds in the parliament, they will soon and without much opposition adopt a new constitution.

The Albanian political spectre has turned upside down, but it has undergone essential changes as well. The alternative centre or united rightists failed to attract hardly anyone due to the gigantic erosion of the Democrats. Neither the united rightists, nor the party of the Greek minority, nor other minor parties could ensure for themselves any influential role in the black-and-white spectre of the Albanian political scene.

And surprisingly and contrary to expectations, the sharpest debates in Tirana are conducted concerning the referendum on the form of rule which was organized on the same day as the general elections. Supporters of monarchy have aspirations to a historical victory with almost the same figures with which the Socialists won the general elections. However, not a single official source confirms their victory, and the figures which are quoted do not exceed 20 per cent. The monarchists have protested because of widespread manipulations, which seems hardly probable. If it would turn out to be as they say, we would have a true election paradox, because it would mean that more than 60 per cent of the voters have voted at the same time for the Socialists and the king. Resolutely denying the possibility of the victory of the monarchy, Nano declared: "We will see king Leka off at the Rinas airport and welcome citizen Leka". At the headquarters of the Democrats there is a tendency to applaud to the possible favourable result of the referendum for monarchy, in the desperate hope that they would not be forced to watch complete power slip into the hands of the Socialists.

A journal in Tirana wrote that three million Albanians are waiting for the puzzle of Berisha to be resolved. In fact it seems that Berisha himself has offered a solution by repeating the promise that he would go. Even if Berisha changed his mind and declared a wish to remain, the opposition which controls two thirds of the votes in parliament would dismiss him through parliamentary procedure. However, it is to be expected that Berisha will withdraw after completion of the second round of the elections, after giving the mandate to the winner and constitution of the new parliament which would accept his resignation and elect a new president. It remains to be seen what his political demeanour will be like in the next few weeks and especially his communication with his victorious rival Nano, whom he has not met at all since he was released from jail.

The strong Albanian leader will now take over the responsibility of leading the Albanian opposition which is confused and reduced to half its size. Berisha will have to unite a badly shaken party, maybe even to suppress a rebellion within his own party.

Along with the Albanians, on Monday after the elections, European offices sighed with relief and hurried to praise the manner in which the elections were carried out, but congratulating the winners with certain reservations, probably so as not to stimulate tensions and many disagreements among Albanian politicians. Mr Prodi, prime minister of Italy, the country which leads the multinational peace forces of seven thousand troops, considers the elections a historical event successfully completed. The reactions of Washington, Athens and Bonn were also quick and favourable. In the meantime, former Austrian chancellor Vranitsky landed for the seventh time in Tirana it appears to negotiate about peaceful transfer of power in the country where it is not exactly a tradition.

AIM Tirana Remzi LANI