CONCEPT OF SPREADING FEAR

Pre-Election Analogies

AIM Banja Luka, 19 June, 1997

Preparations for new elections are in full swing. Registration of voters is in the focus of interest of the media, since registration of parties and candidates has been completed. Only chosen information about the life of the parties are known to the public, in fact only those which refer to activities convenient for the current moment and political circumstances. It seems that pre-election activities of political subjects are proceeding in a relaxed manner and according to plan and that September elections can pass without heating up of the atmosphere and increasing political tensions. But, is this really the case?

If one recalls what was happening during last year's September elections, the silence prevailing on the political scene now may be described as the calm before the storm. Although there have been no new polls, which would be necessary for a thorough analysis of pre-election disposition of political parties, their leaders and voters, based on the acquired knowledge it can be assumed what some of the characteristics of pre-election behavior of political actors are like, in view of the fact that previous public opinion polls pointed out to certain processes and certain trends which may be said to be typical of this space. Of course, the list of characteristics is not final, but such as it is, it can be highly indicative (and reliable), although such processes and phenomena should be studied and analyzed more thoroughly, because it is certain that they will be present in the activities of political actors in local elections, and maybe even later on.

Previous elections will be remembered primarily for their disturbing and confusing atmosphere for majority of the voters in this space. Apart from the fact that the voters for the first time encountered the possibility of true voting for candidates of different parties, it is necessary to stress that the election campaign increased strain among a large portion of the population which caused national homogenization characteristic for wars or other situations of threatened survival. This characteristic of the social situation was identified in polls carried out during the election campaign. Investigations showed that over 80 per cent of the population were under tension, out of which about 10 per cent of the pollees were "very scared" by the current situation, and as much as 70.55 per cent were "worried" (which was established by polls made by this author back in 1993 and 1994).

Therefore, it was not a mere chance, at least as investigations of pre-election disposition of the population showed at the time, that almost every other inhabitant (46.13 per cent) would have gone away from Republica Srpska if he had had the chance to provide a decent life for himself somewhere abroad; that 16.01 per cent of the pollees were in a dilemma and that only 34.94 per cent would have never left RS.

Whether this situation will be repeated before the September elections is the question which cannot be quite precisely answered because of the lack of new investigations. But if the beginning really shows what the end will be like, it is very likely that the situation will change. It seems likely that some parties and some belligerent candidates will found their election campaign again on increased fear of the voters which proved to be successful in previous elections. The issue at stake is only whether conditions have been created for founding pre-election activities of majority of parties on good social, economic, development and other programs?

In the previous election campaign of some political actors it was observed that, apart from desirable and understandable activities aimed at promotion of parties and candidates, they expressed and stimulated intolerance, prejudice and even animosity towards other parties and their candidates. In certain drastic cases of affiliation to a party (the so-called party identification) caused complete denial towards other parties and their candidates, which was accompanied by elements of hostility, destruction, and even aggressiveness. Observed from the present perspective such an election campaign is stimulated by some parties and candidates, although it was favourable for appearance of forms of behavior which did not correspond to a democratic atmosphere. This confused inhabitants in this space and contributed to strengthening of the position of the ruling parties.

It is also certain that some parties founded their pre-election strategies on elimination of their opponents at all cost, without hesitating to defame and show their dirty linen in public. There was much aggressiveness in official appearances of individuals expressed through terminology they used: "pre-election battle", "partisan combat", "fights among candidates" and other. In this context, political parties were divided into the good and the bad, the Serb and the treacherous, the loyal and the puppet, and the candidates into honest and thieves, patriots and sycophants, fighters and profiteers, poor and great Serbs. Posters were, for instance, put up everywhere, without any feeling of measure, even on top of obituaries.

The most striking characteristic of former elections was homogenization of voters of the ruling parties. As election results showed, the opposition parties were not successful in any of the entities. The Serb Democratic Party, the Party of Democratic Action and the Croat Democratic Community won in a landslide, although in some environments, it was quite unexpected.

It seems, and it is especially significant for the present election campaign that the social climate convenient for the opposition has not developed yet, which can be observed in public opinion polls. For instance, only every other pollee declared that "without opposition parties there can be no democracy in a society" (53.74 per cent); every fifth (18.91 per cent) says "let them be - they are neither harmful, nor useful", while 13.12 per cent believe that "they are just doing damage to a state". Almost every tenth voter (9.45 per cent) believes that "opposition parties should be banned, because they are breaking up national unity".

As concerning characteristics of the social situation in Republica Srpska, one can claim that the election situation is quite new, unknown, but completely different than before the previous elections.

Dragan Krneta