MOVES MADE IN A HURRY

AIM Pristina, 19 June, 1997

Processes which might seriously disturb the present, for years established balance of fear and forced coexistence, are gradually ripening in Kosovo. Some of these processes are developing at a rate which appears to be approaching a climax in the next few months or, at any rate, by the end of the year. The new school year will begin in September, by November or December, results of the Serbian elections will be known, and by the end of December, the leader of Kosovo Albanians, Ibrahim Rugova should reach a decision on constitution of the Albanian parliament, that is, on scheduling new parallel Albanian parliamentarian and presidential elections.

Thanks to his specific position in Kosovo, but primarily to the help from friends from abroad, as he likes to call them, Rugova resisted powerful internal pressures not to postpone for the second time constitution of the Albanian parliament and scheduling new parallel elections. He managed to resist the pressure, but by doing it he got just a temporary breathing-space, and had to give a firm promise that he will certainly do it by the end of December.

By then, Rugova must at least open certain possibilities for penetration through the several-year long Kosovo blockade, if not even to offer something to the Albanians that could be presented as the result of his policy. However, chances are small for anything of the kind, because the breathing-space he was given has come at an inconvenient time. It is inconceivable that Milosevic would in any way "help" Rugova to pull himself through the time, political and as we shall see, diplomatic scrape, practically on the eve of Serbian parliamentary and presidential elections.

Rugova's rivals within the Albanian movement have been forecasting such developments for quite some time, but they do not seem to have expected that he would lose political and diplomatic manoeuvering space so quickly. But Rugova is still not seriously threatened by internal rivals. Despite the decline of his political credibility and considerable strengthening of his political opponents, it seems that the international community will continue for some time to play the decisive role in determination of his political destiny. It is a paradox that the very same international community which has praised Rugova so many times in the past six or seven years and in which he has sought and found the only support for his policy, which was also until recently the policy of the entire Albanian movement, might in the end be the one which will take the shine out of Rugova's political glory.

When in the name of the Dutch Presidency of the European Union, Dutch Ambassador in Belgrade conveyed the official stands of the Union concerning resolution for Kosovo to the Albanian leadership and the Albanian public, among other, he said the following to the journalists: "It was significant that Rugova has postponed parallel elections. But, he will face a new situation when he will be forced to reach a different decision concerning this issue, which will be essential for the future of Kosovo. But, before that, something must happen in Kosovo". The identical formulation about the seriousness of the decision on parallel elections was expressed by one of the advisors of the American President during talks with representatives of the Albanians who demonstrated in favour of independent Kosovo in front of the White House in Washington D.C.

In the context of internal processes which were mentioned, the proposal of the EU may be a crucial addition to Rugova's difficulties which might be fatal for him. Is this just a mere coincidence? In certain diplomatic circles it can be heard that the situation in Kosovo is becoming highly threatening and that due to that a significant breakthrough must be made towards improvement, if not in the course of this year, than certainly next year.

When speaking of difficult decisions which Rugova should make by the end of the year, they probably have in mind the demand that he should abandon the idea of parallel Albanian elections in Kosovo. It is assumed that the Albanians will not be asked to vote in the forthcoming Serbian elections, because in view of the disposition of the Albanians, it would be of no use anyway. And as concerning the allegation that something must happen in Kosovo prior to that, is for the time being mere speculation. The possibility of Serbian concessions should not be ruled out either.

The official initiative of the EU is the first initiative of this kind in the world which outlines the framework and defines certain elements of the solution for Kosovo. Dutch ambassador in Belgrade delivered a message about it to the leader of Kosovo Albanians Ibrahim Rugova. But, advised by the experience that stands of the international community about the issue of Kosovo were not promptly presented to the Albanian public, this time the European messenger addressed it himself via media.

The contents of the message handed to Ibrahim Rugova has not been made public yet, but the Ambassador's public appearances lead to the conclusion that the European initiative has two starting-points. The first is that borders cannot be changed, in other words, that a solution must be sought within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The Union leaves to the opposing parties to decide whether the high level of autonomy, as it was said, will be defined within Serbia or Yugoslavia. The second starting-point is that autonomous rights should be much broader than the traditional, cultural and other rights prescribed by the present constitutions of Serbia and Yugoslavia. Seeking specific solutions in this case is left to representatives of the Serbs and the Albanians.

The Dutch Ambassador expressed hope that a compromise would be found about mediation of a third party, concerning which Serbia has been making serious obstacles. This compromise, according to the Dutch Ambassador, may be sought in the model of mediation concerning the issue of last-year's Agreement on Education in Albanian language. The Ambassador devoted much attention in his addresses to the public to warnings against rejection of the European initiative. He also mentioned trading preferences and special programs of the Union intended for the Eastern European countries in transition and, among other, stressed that the issue of Kosovo, the dialogue about it and guarantees of a broad autonomy, were the main condition for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in establishing its relations with the Union.

The Albanian parties immediately rejected starting-points of the European initiative. The term of autonomy, especially the formulation "autonomy within Serbia", reminds the Albanians of everything they have been experiencing in the past 15-16 years, of the situation they call "occupation". Among the Albanians and their political representatives, feelings and convictions are deeply rooted that autonomy within Serbia can be nothing but superficial improvement of the existing situation which will legalize abolition of constitutional rights of Kosovo which took place in the period 1989-1990, with massive use of military and police forces. It is therefore believed that the framework and proposals of the EU in fact solve nothing. Different assessments have also appeared about the question whether the plan of the Union, if implemented, would postpone dangerous threats in Kosovo or whether it will incite quick increase of forces which have so far opposed the policy of passive resistance.

This is more or less the stand of all Albanian parties and organizations. However, the impression is that in order to avoid possible risks, the European initiative will be officially accepted, but that the offered solutions will be rejected. In the meantime, certain internal answers will be sought which will confirm Albanian resoluteness. The easiest way to achieve this would be to constitute the Albanian parliament elected in May 1992 and to schedule parallel Albanian parliamentary and presidential elections perhaps for early autumn, but in any case before the Serbian elections. Vice-president of the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo, Fehmi Agani advocates such replies in the latest issue of the Albanian political weekly Zeri, adding that the Albanians should do everything in order to deprive Milosevic of any hope to construct his political combinations on internal Albanian divisions.

In the telegram of support to the Albanian demonstrators who demanded American support for independent Kosovo in front of the White House, Rugova said that a new era in resolving the issue of Kosovo had begun. It is not clear whether he was referring to the initiative of the EU. At his latest press conference Rugova said the following about it: "The stand of the European Union is known, but the EU is quite aware that the people of Kosovo have declared their will for independence at their referendum. Our stance is to implement the result of this referendum, along with improvement of cooperation with the EU. My main obligation remains to implement the result of this referendum".

Will any dramatic hasty moves be made by the end of the year?

AIM Pristina Fehim REXHEPI