MASS GATHERINGS AGAIN?

WILL THERE BE EARLY ELECTIONS?

AIM Skopje, 7 May, 1997

If anybody was relieved because of the Easter-First of May "time-out", it was the political parties, since immediately after this, almost ten-day holiday, an intense pressing followed which could end up in early parliamentary elections and, very probably, with the change of the political ambience. In the first days of the month of May, Prime Minister Branko Crvenkovski, who is also the leader of the ruling Social Democratic Alliance (SDSM), started the long time ago promised dialogue with all the Macedonian parties concerning the collection of election laws, and, as Macedonian opposition had expected, the date of early elections as the verification of the will of the voters.

The Prime Minister's move was, of course, welcomed by majority of relevant political parties, although coalition partners in the executive power - the Albanian Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP) and the Socialist Party (SP) - were expressedly restrained in their first reactions. The most eminent Albanian politician, leader of the PDP, Abdurrahman Aliti, declared only that he had got the message about Crvenkovski's decision, but stressed that it suited his party that the future deputies be elected in the proportional system again. The official of the Socialist Party, Jovan Lazarov, was not too talkative either. For these two parties which consider themselves constructive participants in Macedonian administration, the issue of early elections is not too important. They neither look forward to them, nor are they exposed to pressures in this sense. The coalition partners are aware that the question of early elections concerns only the SDSM, the most influential party in power which alone has the majority of votes in the parliament. That is the reason why members of the PDP and the Socialists are concerned more about the forthcoming reconstruction of the Government and party ambitions and obligations in this connection. Due to a series of scandals and just arisen personnel problems, Branko Crvenskovski is forced to verify the top echelons of the state administration. It is believed that only in this way he may preserve credibility and enter the new elections reinforced, counting the initial steps he is just taking.

Reflecting the latest distribution of political forces, Crvenskovski will start the series of dialogues with the political parties with Ljupce Georgievski, leader of the rightist VMRO-DPMNE, the party persistently accused by the authorities of radical nationalism. Although Georgievski withdrew from the latest elections allegedly due to forgery, so his party has no representatives in the state assembly, VMRO has remained the most influential opposition party, which it had confirmed by the number of votes won in the autumn local elections, and he himself is still the first man of the opposition in general. The talks between Crvenkovski and Georgievski, as expected, will in the very beginning define positions of the authorities and the opposition, and all other contacts, however hard it may be for some of the politicians, will be nothing but derivatives of them, which can do nothing but reinforce the starting positions of the ones and the others.

Aware of this fact, the very same day when Prime Minister's initiative was publicized, Ljupco Georgievski convened a press conference where he repeated his previous threats about organization of an all-Macedonian social rebellion. Although he had tried to make the impression in the mentioned conversation with the journalists that it was just a mere coincidence, it was more than obvious that Georgievski had the ambition to impose his own style in the game from the very beginning and acquire an advantage by being the first to strike. About a month and a half ago, that is at the time when Crvenkovski had announced the already at the time compromised "purge" in connection with the bankrupt TAT savings-bank from Bitola, the leader of VMRO-DPMNE suspended the scheduled general strike in order to give the Prime Minister a chance to fulfill the promises he had made.

It seems that the Prime Minister had not met expectations of Ljupce Georgievski, and in all sincerity, of the great majority of the Macedonian public either. The so far revealed data about the Bitola financial pyramid in which, according to assessments, more than a billion marks were lost, indicate that nobody of the Prime Minister's associates had been involved in the scandal except the wife of the minister of construction industry, who submitted his resignation because of it. The Government is also trying to restore financial soundness by drafting the law on bankrupt savings-banks, but it is not very probable that it will succeed in it. Macedonian "lex specialis" implies just partial debt service repayment, but this will not satisfy about 20 thousand cheated depositors. They simply want it "all". They do not care how, but want it now. On the other hand, the mentioned law reaches out for money from the budget, and this makes all the citizens of Macedonia suffer a loss, and it is believed to be discriminatory to a large number of citizens who the state owes about a billion dollars and still has not found a way to pay indemnities to them.

In the meantime, a crisis in chaotic health service escalated, due to which the minister in charge, Ilija Filipce, finally withdrew, arousing enthusiasm of the public. Despite everything, data were revealed about enormous expenses of state administration, public expenditures which always arise suspicion in poor societies and which reached the figure of 400 million marks in the past three years, which is considered to be completely out of proportion in comparison with the possibilities, even if everything had been done exactly pursuant the valid regulations. On this basis, VMRO-DPMNE called its members and all discontented persons to gather on the central square in Skopje, on 15 May. The Macedonians do not seem to be too entusiastic about massive gatherings, but this time they just might succumb to the temptation, especially because the VMRO has dilligently trained to "work with masses". Georgievski obviously believes that with several ten thousand demonstrants he could corner Crvenskovski, but the Prime Minister showed a few times that even when left in a small space he was capable of making a winning manoeuvre. All things considered, neither is Georgievski powerful enough to overthrow the government, nor is Crvenkovski naive enough to be overthrown in the street, but both the one and the other will have to take into consideration success or failure of the VMRO happening which will take place on 15 May, and measure their future moves accordingly.

BUDO VUKOBRAT