FALL OF THE LAST LINE OF DEFENCE

Division of Bosnia

Preparations of the Bosniac public opinion for division provokes neither enthusiasm nor approval among the Serbs. After all, everything is perfectly clear

AIM Banja Luka, 23 April, 1997

With a delay of a month, even the stubborn Biljana Plavsic "officially" recognized the agreement bwteen Republica Srpska and the FR Yugoslavia. At the meeting of the Presidency of the Serb Democratic Party in Pale held on 12 April, President of RS lost another round in her largely personal conflict with the former idol Slobodan Milosevic, President of Serbia.

A month before, Ms. Plavsic bluntly rejected the agreement. "I do not wish to be the president of a banana state", she said and met with approval only of the opposition in Belgrade, which rejects almost anything Milosevic does, no matter what it referred to. However, developments showed that Milosevic and Krajisnik had known something that impulsive Plavsic and the Serbian opposition could not have thought of at the moment.

And what did Milosevic know?

Obviously as a user of sources and data supplied by information and diplomatic services, President of Serbia had in mind at the right moment what the Bosniacs had been wishing for a long time. The fact that they did was no secret, but it was necessary to choose the timing and know exactly when the Bosniac pot would boil.

Milosevic has precisely forecasted when the USA would cast the first stone at Dayton, and indeed on 17 March, uniofficial journal of the leading Muslim party, Dnevni avaz, published on its front page in big letters the following title: "Dayton Buried?" The avalanche was set off: "Is it time for the Bosniacs to consider how they should go on?" And then results of a Bosniac public opinion poll: "It is indicative that as many as 22 per cent of the pollees believe at this moment that the Bosniacs must seek their part of B&H and give up the illusion of a possibility of building a joint state with those who had started the war in order to exterminate them. Until just six months ago, such reflections belonged only to a small minority."

Taboo

The story about division of Bosnia has thus ceased to be a taboo even in the "last defence line", among the Bosniacs. Even the moderate Sarajevo daily Dani published a map of division and the "personal view" of Dr Armino Beslija who presuasively wondered: "What Bosniac will send his child to a school or the army in RS?" and then forces the public to face the reality: "It must be admitted that these prospects are equal to a catastrophe for many and it would certainly open many wounds and bring up more questions than answers because it would have to be openly said that, for example, Banja Luka and Bijeljina are not in B&H any more". And then he concludes: "The losses which should be accepted are primarily emotional, since in fact we are not losing much, because it is impossible to lose what one does have, and unfortunately, we have neither Banja Luka nor Bijeljina, nor do we control our borders".

At this point it should be added that the story about the Croats, as concerning the Bosniacs, is much more complicated, but quite obviously has no other solution in sight. The newly elected President of the Federation Vladimir Soljic is openly against the "federation of the cantons", and in favour of the "federation of nations". "If the Muslims fail to remove this dilemma, if they persist building some kind of a civic state, if they try to sell us, the Croats, a pig in a poke, this project simply will not be feasible".

All this indicates that Milosevic has come out in the open with the agreement between FRY and RS adequately and at the proper time. Secretary General of the Socialist Party of Serbia, Gorica Gajevic, immediately explained (already on 19 March) that the agreement was "much more than just an economic agreement". Aleksa Buha, Vice Prime Minister of RS and leader of the Serb Democratic Party, reminded: "Ever since March 1994, we have had a free hand to establish a confederation, since B&H Federation, pursuant the then adopted Washington documents, had entered a confederation with the Republic of Croatia".

Echoes

Publicizing of the Bosniac (probably maximalistic) plans that although they actually held just about 27 per cent of the territory, they counted on about 60 per cent of B&H - mostly making up for this difference at the expense of RS (the entire Krajina with Banja Luka, plus a slice of northern Bosnia) - has not immediately met with "sharp reactions" of the Serb public. But obvious signals in this sense arrived via the Supreme Defence Council of RS which demanded "that all state agencies and citizens make maximum effort in direction of strengthening defence capabilities and the cult of defence of RS".

After that, significant publicity was given to the announcement of the head of the General Staff of the Army of RS, major general Pera Colic, that provocations with "mass return of refugees on the territory of RS" would follow: "We have information that a raid is planned in the region between Sanski Most and Prijedor and in some other places. We must be prepared to prevent such intentions".

At the same time, Momcilo Krajisnik, member of B&H Presidency, is leading a strategic struggle and claims in Niske novine that RS "is entitled to establish confederal relations and military cooperation with FRY". Krajisnik also reminds of the agreement between B&H Federation and Croatia: "Since Alija Izetbegovic signed these agreements in the name to of the Federation, in the name of RS I signed this agreement which defines relations of FRY with RS, but also with B&H Union. If they fail to approve this agreement of ours in the joint bodies of B&H, we will not approve their agreements with the Croats".

There is almost no obstacle for this kind of logic. Because as on 28 March Sarajevo Oslobodjenje wrote, stories about the division were "neither fictitious nor an exaggerated problem". "The fire was very close", it was written at the time, so that Izetbegovic himself was forced on two occasions to "put the fire out from America".

The visit of the Pope John Paul II seemed to "Bosniaphiles" as the last big attempt to save "united and multiethnic Bosnia". Reporters of world media reported from Sarajevo - besides the exciting story about the planted explosives under the bridge - that the Holy Father saw for himself "how deep the gap between the Croats and the Muslims in Bosnia" was.

Preparations for September elections are proceeding. It has already become clear that they will differ from the previous ones. Once again Dnevni avaz should be referred to because it reported that the last fighter for multiethnic Bosnia had formed a council which was helping him (Izetbegovic) "in resolving complex political issues which he has as the President of B&H Presidency". The list of names of its members speaks for itself: Haris Silajdzic, Ejup Ganic, Edhem Bicakcic, Halid Genjac, Hilmo Neimarlija, Safet Orucevic, Kasim Trnka, Dzemil Sabrihafizovic, Kasim Begic and Dzamaludin Latic.

Petar Reljic