WHO IS THE TRUE OPPOSITION

AIM Zagreb, 26 April, 1997

Had anyone by any chance put the dilemma to the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) before the 13 April elections whether they would prefer the victory in the Chamber of Districts of the Assembly or in Zagreb, it is quite certain that Tudjman's party would have chosen the metropolis. On the other hand, there has not been a single public opinion poll, a single serious analysis which showed that the HDZ could regain power in Zagreb, because the poll passed by Globus showed that the HDZ could count on winning 31.1 per cent of votes in the capital of Croatia, that of Nacional that this percentage was 27.1, that of Tjednik 30.1, Hrvatski obzor 24, Vecernji list 25.6, and finally the poll of the Institute for Applied Social Studies indicated that it could win 29.9 per cent of the votes. Everything pointed out that the results of October 1995 elections would be repeated and that the opposition would win in Zagreb again. But, in the country of miracles, as its President likes to call it, a miracle happened. The HDZ indeed won approximately as much as the forecasts had predicted - 35.67 per cent, which is almost by one per cent less than 18 months ago, but despite this it did regain power in Zagreb, and therefore has all the right to gloat, because in spite of that, it won also almost two-third majority in the Chamber of Districts.

Many will womder how this is possible. It is very simple. Out of 21 lists of candidates which ran for the seats in the City Assembly, the limit of five per cent necessary to be represented in th Assembly was exceeded by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) with about 24 per cent, the Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS) with about 12 per cent, and the Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS) with about seven per cent. The condition for entering the City Assembly was not met, which was a surprise, either by the Action of Social Democrats, or the remaining 19 parties, so it happened that about 23 per cent of votes were "wasted". This enabled the HDZ to add four seats to the 14 it had actually won, and then it won in another six out of 12 electoral districts where the majority system was applied, and instead of the 17 seats (that is 18 with one turncoat) in the City Assembly it will now have 24 deputies. The SDP won 14, the HSLS 9, and the HSS three seats. Someone might say that this is not fair. But, these are the rules of the game, and at this moment everything depends on the Croatian Peasants' Party and its President Zlatko Tomcic who wisely keeps declaring that he does not wish a coalition with either the SDP or the HDZ, although due to his behavior before and after the elections it is clear that his party has actually played the role until recently played by the Croat Party of Right.

The developments in Zagreb - where the HSS refused to join the coalition with its partners from the former association, and even directly assisted the HDZ in winning in half of the electoral districts where the majority system was applied instead of in only one because it had nominated its best candidates as opponents - impose the key issue: who is in fact the opposition in Croatia? Numerous sociologists, politicologists, statisticians and journalists are now trying to prove that the opposition has made a mistake, that it has not adapted to the rules of the game and that by a wise union and coalition, it could have won 34 instead of 22 seats in the Chamber of Districts, and maintained the ratio of 17:33 in Zagreb.

But, although in the terms of calculu this approach holds, it has wrong premisses as the starting point. First of all, such analyses take it for granted that practically all the parties, except of course the Croat Party of Right and a few minor parties with the Ustashe prefix, are automatically the opposition. And this simply is not the case. The Croatian Peasants' Party, for instance, for years, in fact from the first multiparty elections, has been the HDZ's sisterly party and Tudjman's army in reserve. Its leaders, first Ivan Zvonimir Cicak, then late Drago Stipac, then Josip Pankretic and Tomcic have never even tried to conceal it, or did it quite clumsily.

Major conflicts and disagreements with the HDZ have lately been reduced mostly to moves made by the official authorities towards normalization of relations with FR Yugoslavia, peaceful reintegration, the Erdut Agreement, law on amnesty, and similar issues. The HSS has always advocated more radical options, helping in this way Tudjman to appear as a peace-maker and a man in favour of dialogue and compromise. The only essential difference referred to return of nationalized property, when the SDP supported the HDZ, protecting tenants for example, and not former owners, which was the alleged reason for Tomcic to attack "Racan's communists" and reject all possibility of cooperation with the "commies", which is best illustrated by the fact that the same insulted Tomcic has cooperated with the HDZ on numerous occasions, although this party is the author of the controversial law and squeezed it through the Assembly. The Croat Peasants' Party could not be classified among the opposition parties according to serious politicological criteria, because it is very similar to the HDZ, moreover often to its right faction, except for a few specific problems of peasants and villages.

Once the most powerful opposition party, the HSLS, whose primacy has definitely been taken over by the SDP, with the exception of certain relevant differences, especially when speaking of freedom of media, development of democracy and freedom of entrepreneurship, is indeed a national party. It was also very critical about the same issues as the HSS, but its inconspicuous and quite vague policy often confuses the voters. It should be noted that among the Liberals, who are in fact not Liberals in the classical sense of the word, there is the largest number of turncoats. The feature which distinguishes the HSLS from the HDZ, because they are both actually movements and not firmly organized parties, lies in the fact that the former first had Budisa, and then Gotovac for its leaders, while the latter has Tudjman who has whenever needed managed to reconcile his bickering supporters with his persoanl authority. There is nobody who would guide Budisa and Gotovac, or Bozo Kovacevic and Tereza Ganza Aras towards the same goal (or perhaps by the same method), while Tudjman with his charisma with equal power keeps under control Djuro Perica and Franjo Greguric, and Vico Vukojevic and Davor Stern, and Ivan Milas and Ljerka Mintas-Hodak...

Therefore, the opposition of the HSS has definitely proved to be just alleged, because Tomcic was openly Tudjman's Trojan horse in the past elections, and the HSLS is true opposition only with one of its parts. That is how the true opposition, along with the part of the HSLS, can be reduced to Social Democrats (not only Racan's), the Istrian Democratic Assembly and the Croat National Party, along with a few minor regional parties.

And this what makes the calculus appear quite different. It could indeed be declared that the true opposition to the HDZ are the people themselves, in other words, due to their cowardice, internal connflicts, and mutual ones, political parties did not know how to articulate the accumulated discontent of the people. It is sufficient to remind that the attempt to shut down the popular Radio 101 brought out 100 thousand people to the central Zagreb square, while no party has even managed to achieve anything similar.

It is true that the Croatian political scene is being definitely formed and that the HDZ is on its own on the right, because it has itself, with its scheming, destroyed the Croat Party of Right, side by side with it is the HSS, at the centre is the HSLS, and on the left is the SDP as the main party of the true opposition. Politics is not mere calculus and things are not always what they seem. After all, the ruling party is called "democratic" although another name would suit it much better.

The past elections will therefore be significant because it has finally become clear who is who, but at the same time, because they will petrify the relation of forces for quite some time, since the Croats are not inclined towards civic disobedience and protests. After the fiasco in the elections, it is quite certain that in the presidential elections which must be scheduled for no sooner that 12 June but no later than 12 July, Tudjman will not have a real rival. The next opportunity will be in 1999, when new elections for the Chamber of Representatives of the Assembly are expected to take place, and it is the only one that can change the Constitution or reduce the present authorizations of the president of the republic which resemble almost those of an emperor.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC