RUGBY AND VOLLEYBALL

AIM Zagreb, 17 April, 1997

Results of last week's, fifth in the row, multiparty elections in Croatia, were the biggest but also the most pleasant surprise for the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ). Contrary to all expectations, sociological and politicological investigations and public opinion polls, Tudjman's party simply ran their opponents to the ground, and won 42 out of 63 seats in the Chamber of Districts of the Croatian Assembly, that is, four more than it had so far. What has actually happened that induced even Tudjman himself to shout amazed "Oh, God!" and then drank champagne and ate a slice of the cake made to celebrate the victory? How come that all, absolutely all forecasters, including those from the HDZ who had expected a majority, but not almost the two-third majority in the upper chamber of the Croatian parliament?

They had all started from the correct assumption that popularity of the HDZ was declining for at least five per cent, and based on that drew conclusions on the possible narrow result. But, something quite different happened. First, according to official data, the ruling party on the level of the state won 1,02,844 votes or 43.92 per cent (which certainly can be doubted, because there is innumerable evidence that there were election thefts, which is illustrated by numerous examples of narrow results, but also revealed empty ballots, and even bizarre cases from Zagreb that at the same polling station in the part where voters voted whose names began with letters A to M, the opposition and the HDZ were equal, but in the part where those whose names began with letters from N to Z, the opposition won only 20 votes, and the HDZ won 300).

According to these official data the HDZ has achieved the worst result since it came to power. For example, in 1992, it had 44.71 per cent, in 1993, 45.49 per cent, and in 1995 it had 45.23 per cent of votes. If two years are compared which are comparable - 1993 and this year when the Chamber of Districts of the Assembly was elected - it turns out that the HDZ has won by far more seats in this Assembly chamber with by 1.57 per cent less votes. The logical question is how this is possible? The answer is both complicated and simple, but it could be brought down to the simple statement that the election law established rules for rugby, but the opposition played volleyball.

In fact, in 1993, the opposition for the first time realized that it was forced to oppose the HDZ and adapt to the election law and its proportional system, according to which in each of the 21 electoral districts three deputies were elected from the lists of party candidates. Pursuant this law, D'Hondt's method of calculation of election results is applied, which gives advantage to the party which wins the greatest number of votes to the extent that it is possible to win all three seats with a relative majority of only 35 to 40 per cent, if the rest of the votes are dispersed to a large number of parties and therefore lost. Four years ago, the opposition tried to be competitive by uniting, which was to a certain extent successful. The same model was applied in 1995 in the elections for the city of Zagreb when the HDZ won only 17 out of 50 seats in the City Assembly.

This year, probably convinced that the HDZ is certainly losing popularity and that election thefts would not be decisive, the opposition parties simply rushed into the trap set for them. Instead of establishing an opposition block of the three largest parties - the Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS), the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS) - only the HSLS and the HSS opposed the HDZ together, and the SDP did it separately, as well as a whole series of minor parties, actually working in favour of the HDZ by doing it. President of the HSS, Zlatko Tomcic, refused to even think about entering the coalition with, as he says, Racan's communists (SDP), because allegedly peasants would never have voted for them. Vlado Gotovac agreed to Tomcic's blackmail and made a very big mistake. Even if Tomcic did have ideological reasons for not going into the coalition with Racan, and in fact it proved that he was a very skilful mole working for the HDZ, it is obvious that Vlado Gotovac had overestimated his power, but also that of the HSS, neglecting the fact that everybody could see for themselves - that the SDP was becoming the second political force in Croatia. To what extent Gotovac was in fact tricked is best illustrated by the fact that in Zagreb Tomcic had listed his best candidates, including himself, as opponents to the representatives of the rump opposition association he had previously left, and in this way most directly caused the Association to win only in half of the 12 direct confrontations with HDZ candidates in the city, depriving the opposition of 10 to 15 per cent of the votes.

As D'Hondt's method is a specific playing with fire, just as the HDZ has won 65 per cent of the seats with only 43.92 per cent of the votes, with good election engineering, it could have been completely different. For instance, in Zagreb district, the HDZ won 46.17 per cent of votes, but when individual results of the HSLS, the HSS, the SDP and the Action of Social Democrats are added, they have the total of 47 per cent of the votes, so with a relative majority they would have won additional two seats, and the HDZ only one. Had by any chance a large opposition coalition been formed and assuming that all those who had voted for these individual parties would have voted for it, the result would have been approximately as follows: the opposition would have won no less than 34 seats, so the HDZ would not have had the majority despite the fact that President Tudjman is entitled to nominate five deputies of his own. The ratio would have been about fifty-fifty. But, somebody did not wish this to happen, and the others had not known it, and now the HDZ has all the right to brag about its big triumph.

Especially because with such catastrophic results, the opposition has lost Zagreb, although the HDZ had not won it either, because the relation of forces in the City Assembly is the following: the HDZ has 24 deputies, the SDP 14, the HSLS 9 and the HSS 3. Everything is in the hands of the HSS whose President Tomcic persistently claims that he will not form a coalition with Tudjman, nor with Racan, but it is clear that in the end just the contrary will happen and the Peasants will join the stronger of the two parties.

The second reason why the HDZ has achieved such a big success is that with a very carefully conceived election campaign, it had done everything to disgust the people with the elections, so that out of 3,502,938 registered voters only 68.45 per cent actually came to the polls, that is, almost one third of the electorate abstained this time, which is more than in the last elections.

However, if we disregard all these false steps and "confusion of sports", this year's elections showed that the Croatian political scene is definitely being formed, and that only four serious parties are surviving on the national level. Along with the HDZ, only the HSLS, SDP and HSS can count on winning support of the voters larger than five per cent and the election threshold. It proved that the HDZ preserved its constant support with a slight decline, but also that the extreme right has lost support, not only the minor parties with the Ustashe prefix, but even the until recently quite powerful Croat Party of Right is becoming minor. The HDZ has therefore become a typical right party, the HSLS and HSS central, and the SDP is on the left.

In this constellation, evident shifts have occurred. The Liberals and the Peasants, due to their unrecognizable policy, often close to the HDZ, and often confused and vague, continue losing support of the voters. Here are just a few examples. In Zagreb district, these two parties together had four years ago 48.53 per cent of votes, and this year just 28.22 per cent. The SDP with just 2.21 has risen to 16.56 per cent. In Krapina-Zagorje district, the HSS used to have 19.61 per cent, and now in the coalition with the Liberals 29.60 per cent. In Sisak the Liberals had slightly over 30 per cent, and now together with the Peasants only 21 per cent. In the district of Varazdin the Peasants had about 26 per cent, and together with the Liberals last week 28 per cent. In Koprivnica-Krizevci district, the HSS alone had 31 per cent, and now in the coalition with Gotovac only 30 per cent. And so on and so forth, in typically "Peasants'" environments. It is difficult to figure out who has fallen more - the Liberals or the Peasants, because with the exception of three districts, they were in a coalition, but it is evident that these two parties are the greatest losers. The SDP is seriously blazing the trail to becoming the second largest party in the country, because there is not a single district where an increase of support to it has not been registered among the voters. On the average, it has won 16.59 per cent of the votes, which is twice as much as in the elections in 1995. It is only logical to conclude that the HDZ has preserved its constant at the expense of the extreme right and to some extent that of the HSS, and that the SDP has taken over the votes of the HSLS.

And in the end, it is not insignificant that the opposition has won power in almost all large cities - Osijek, Rijeka, Split, Varazdin, Pula, Zadar, Cakovec, Dubrovnik and Sibenik. Along with Zagreb, where the HDZ has won only 35 per cent of the votes, although also almost half of the mandates, all these victories of the opposition in cities speak for themselves about the direction the voters have taken in highly developed Croatian environments.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC