RESULTS OF SPRING ELECTIONS IN CROATIA

AIM Zagreb. 15 April, 1997

"I am not disappointed with our results. But, I am extremely disappointed with the results achieved by the HDZ!" Vlado Gotovac, President of the opposition HSLS (Croat Social Liberal Party), who is the author of this statement, with a sour expression on his face, like leaders of all the other opposition parties, was listening to the first report of the electoral commission: the HDZ (Croat Democratic Community) not only preserved the former support of the electorate, but even improved its position. Obviously, the so far stable electorate which, depending on the region, reaches between 30 and 45 per cent, along with the electoral system and disunited opposition won almost a two-third majority - instead 37 out of 63 seats it had until now in the upper chamber of the Assembly, it will have 41 (three representatives from each of 21 districts). In Zagreb, where the HDZ has prevented the majority in the city assembly to take over executive power since last 1995 elections, the outcome is very tight - the HDZ will have 24 deputies, the other parties 26. This means that the "Zagreb crisis" might continue, but also be resolved very quickly - in favour of the HDZ.

Lists of the HDZ for the Chamber of Districts have won relative majority in 19 out of 21 districts. Most of them in Lika - 62 per cent, and all three representatives in the Chamber of Districts. They will have two representatives from each of 14 districts, and so on.

    The greatest losers in the elections for the Chamber

of Districts are the Liberals (HSLS). They ran in coalition with the HSS (Croat Peasants' Party), refusing to allow the SDP (Social Democratic Party) to join them. In the end, the HSLS, instead of the previous 16, dropped down to only seven representatives in the Chamber of Districts. Their partner, the HSS, somewhat improved its status, and instead of the previous five won nine seats. The SDP achieved a comparative success, which so far had only one representative. In the new assembly it will have four, thanks primarily to the good result in Rijeka, where successful seven-year control of the city brought them two out of the possible three representatives.

The large predominance of the HDZ in the Chamber of Districts will probably be further increased when President Tudjman makes use of the right given to him by the Constitution to nominate another five members of the Chamber of Districts. The HDZ regained the lost self-confidence in Zagreb, where 18 months ago it was left in the minority. It won a similar percentage of votes like in the last elections (35 per cent), but after the changed election system and assistance of the opposition which was reflected in their mutual rivalry (the HSLS and the SDP managed to preserve the electoral alliance in Zagreb, but the HSS refused to accept cooperation with the SDP and left the previously victorious coalition) the HDZ came close to victory. Out of 50 seats in the city assembly, the HDZ will now have 24 seats. The coalition SDP-HSLS won 23 seats (SDP 14, HSLS 9), and the HSS may resolve or further complicate the Zagreb crisis with the three seats it won. The HDZ relies on differences between the HSS and the other two opposition parties (especially with the SDP) and it has already officially announced that it would offer the latter coalition cooperation in order to reach the majority in the city assembly. Although without an official agreement, the HSS has already directly helped the HDZ in the elections - in 12 electoral districts in which one third of members of the city assembly were elected, the HSS took away the votes from the HSLS-SDP coalition and thus helped the HDZ to win in six electoral units.

The opposition parties may be consoled by comparative success in a few cities - in big centres such as Osijek, Split, Rijeka, Varazdin, Pula, Dubrovnik... - the HDZ remained with a minority of votes and their administrations will in various combinations be composed of members of the opposition parties. The opposition majority won in several district assemblies - traditionally in Istria (although the majority of the regional hegemonist, the Istrian Democratic Congress-IDS was reduced) or in Rijeka. The composition of the electoral districts enabled the opposition coalition HSLS-SDP to win a majority in Osijek district, and this is one of the situations which induced rare smiles from the opposition - in a public opinion poll the former Osijek district prefect Branimir Glavas (HDZ) had been given better chances. But, it should not be forgotten that local administrations do not have very big power and that decisive power remains in the hands of the President of the Republic and the central government.

The first post-election commentaries of politicians and politicologists indicate clearing up of the Croatian political scene: along with the HDZ, through the crowd of 38 parties which ran in the elections, only the SDP, HSLS and the HSS managed to fight their way through. In a few regions, regional parties will have certain influence, IDS or PGS (Maritime Mountain Alliance, in Rijeka region), and analysts believe that the Croatian National Party in the centre and the Croatian Party of Right on the right side of the political spectre have certain chances to survive.

Increase of chances of the SDP which has improved its total results, mostly in cities, had not escaped the HDZ, so it was strongly attacked in the last few days of the campaign. The SDP was accused of the intention to re-establish communism and Yugoslavia, and like the HDZ seven years ago, nowadays the SDP has become "the party of dangerous intentions". In its tv-spots, the HDZ had several times crossed the limit of good taste and standards determined in the campaign, so the state electoral commission and the Constitutional Court had to react by banning or ordering changes in some of the spots.

Exaggerated attacks on the SDP brought a certain number of new sympathizers to this party, because they implied that the SDP was an important opponent which the HDZ feared. The rhetoric of the SDP aimed at social issues, forced the HDZ to allocate certain privileges to socially vulnerable groups (pensioners, war victims, reduction of taxes on workers' salaries...), which were all given more emphasis in state-controlled media than they deserve.

Inequality in the media - especially in the state electronic ones - is marked by many as the reason for poor results achieved by opposition parties. On tv the HDZ prevailed, especially in the last week of the campaign, with several times more propagandist spots than the opposition. Apart from the free time at the disposal of all parties, and paid advertisements and whole programs, television diligently followed candidates of the HDZ in their regular and protocolar duties. And in those days, there were numerous laying of corner stones, opening of new schools and roads (sometimes only two kilometres long, but nevertheless registered accompanied by a declaration celebrating "another success of our policy..."). The monitoring mission of the OSCE also noticed unequal treatment of the ruling and opposition parties in state controlled media.

After local, presidential elections will follow in Croatia, expected to take place in the summer, according to the current announcements in the month of June. As local elections have shown, Franjo Tudjman - who was the first on the list of candidates of the HDZ and behind whose "person and deeds" the party hid - still enjoys high support of the voters. His predominance and that of the HDZ may be threatened only by a joint appearance of the opposition. But, the opposition had known this before the just past elections.

IGOR VUKIC