BERISHA: TO BE OR NOT TO BE

AIM Tirana, 20 March, 1997

Once vigorous and charismatic Albanian president Sali Berisha has been in a state of political comma for days. It remains to be seen whether he himself will cut the tiny quantities of oxygen that keep him alive or whether someone else will do it for him. In fact, several days ago, while shots reverberated all over Tirane and Albania, Berisha wrote his resignation and put it away. Instead of his written resignation he offered journalists another statement in which he publicly made it known that "he will leave presidential function only after his Democratic Party looses the forthcoming elections".

Demands for Berisha's resignation, which are strongly voiced both by peaceful demonstrators and armed rebels alike, represent the Gordian knot of today's Albanian policy. Still, it is impossible to tell what the undoing of this knot might bring with it. One stance, also supported by some western governments, is that the removal of Berisha would help resolve the Albanian crisis. However, the other which proceeds from Berisha himself, in a form of an announcement, predicts further destabilization of the country in case he is forced to step down.

Irrespective of the fact that Berisha might stay in power for several more days or months, his stepping down from the top state position seems inevitable. Even now, with the release of the chief of secret police and the taking over of television by the Government of National Reconciliation, it can be said that only one third of Berisha is still in power. The 52 year old leader lost much in the eyes of his followers, when the foreign media informed that - while shots reverberated through Tirane - his two children had run away to Italy, to the port of Bari with their bodyguards.

The disintegration of the army, which ended up fatally with the departure of the former Minister of Defence Zuljali from the country, is an evidence that the military card, he thought he held in his hands, was but an illusion. Also, it turned out that there was no, so called support for Berisha from the northern Albania.

There is no chance for the danger, so frequently mentioned by the foreign media, of the conflict between south and north of Albania which could lead the country straight to a civil war, to become a reality. It seems that Berisha is not popular in the north either, although the revolt against him is not so strong as in the south. Instead of consolidating the President's positions, the parting of the clouds of civil war has even more weakened them so that it seems that he enjoys very little support. Without the army, the north - which was considered his backing - with halved Parliament, as some of the delegates had left the country, with a disunited party, his position seems even more dramatic.

"What we have seen in Albania these days is not a civil war, but total anarchy", says a political analyst in Tirane. It is an operetta soaked in blood, a military operetta. People have got hold of arms, but soon realized that there was no enemy. Then they started shooting into the air. What happened in Albania were "Star Wars".

Still, there is a danger of provocations which could start a war of all against all, same as there is fear that conflicts might spread to neighbouring countries. First attempts to sell arms in Greece and Macedonia have already been made, while the danger of the transfer of arms to Kosovo is even greater. It seems that the image of a man of stability of the region, which the Albanian leader enjoyed so far and with which he secured for himself a privileged status in European capitals, is lost for good. The destabilized Albania represents a threat to everyone in the region and it seems that some foreign police or military forces are necessary. If the chaos continues on the Albanian side and the arms circulate freely, then the peace forces in Macedonia might seem meaningless. On the other hand, it would make more sense if Italy was to line up its police or military units in Durres or Vlore, than to wait for the refugees in Brindisi and Bari.

Berisha can no longer use Kosovo as a trump card, as it slipped from his hands long ago. Efforts to push Rugova towards the policy of active protest and support of a more radical wing of the political Kosovo movement, have caused estrangement between Tirane and the official Pristina. Forced against his will, to choose between Tirane and Washington, which are presently on bad terms, the Kosovo leader decided for the latter. When the crisis in Albania crossed the critical limit, Rugova publicly adopted for the American option on the calling of new elections. It could presently be said that the road to Pristina does not lead over Tirane, but over Washington.

And last, but not the least, Berisha's position is even more complicated by the fact that his main political rival Fatos Nana is out of prison and back in his office. Nana might easily turn into a hero whom the revolting Albanians so badly need. In his first statements after his release from prison after being granted amnesty signed by Berisha, the socialist leader demanded from the latter to remove himself from the political scene. Nana made it clear that the opposition will not officially demand Berisha's resignation, but that Berisha has to do it for moral reasons.

And while the armed rebels made it clear that they do not intend to lay down their arms as long as Berisha remains in office, the opposition parties in Albania, as well as the western institutions are faced with a dilemma. It is suspected that insisting on Berisha's resignation might be interpreted, both by him and his party, as the disregard of the signed agreement and take back the country from the somewhat balanced state within a chaos, into an anarchy within that same chaos. On the other hand, it is feared that armed and organized rebels in the south might withdraw their support to Fino's office if Berisha remains in power. However, there is another strong suspicion, both within and without the country, that it will be very difficult to organize free and fair elections with Berisha in the office.

    The Berisha phenomenon could be characterized as a

metamorphosis of a man who was thought to be the Balkanic Havel into Lukashenko of the Balkans. The former 52-year old cardiologist came to power five years ago as a very popular and charismatic figure. He was considered the star of the post-communist East, and soon won the support of the entire West, and especially the USA. A polyglot, with wide culture, at the beginning Berisha seemed like a man who was far from the Balkanic style of rule. However, the observers soon noticed that Berisha carried in himself the contradiction between democratic aspirations and the authoritarian method of rule.

Coming to power as the leader of anti-communist opposition, Berisha continued to rule with the same opposition style. Even five years after he assumed the office of President his speeches created the impression that it was a member of the opposition rather then the head of state speaking. The stifling of any dissension within his party ranks, the imprisonment of the opposition leader Nana, the arrest of several journalists, have put the first serious question marks over the personality of the Albanian president. However, the electoral manipulations last May marked the end of the honey-moon of Berisha and Washington. That is when the fall of a man who had toppled communism in Albania started. Maybe the 52-year old Berisha will be remembered in the history of Albania as its most contradictory figure: a man who had toppled communism and at the same time, a man who toppled democracy. In the most paradoxical way, isolated and, in a way, deserted he is faced with the Hamlet's dilemma: To be or not to be?

Ana Bolini, AIM Tirana