Meaning of the Agreement on Special Relations Between FRY and RS

Agreement FRY-Pale: Awakening of the Sleeping Serbs

AWAKENING OF THE SLEEPING SERNS

AIM Belgrade, 3 March, 1997

Secrecy with which signing of the agreement on "special parallel relations between the FR Yugoslavia and Republica Srpska" was prepared belongs to the type practised by military headquarters. It is certain that only the closest associates of the leaders, devoted and sworn to loyalty, had been informed about the action of Milosevic and Krajisnik. There are two logical answers to the question why everything was done in the bunker: it was necessary to produce the effect of surprise, and in order to do that, it was necessary to include as few people as possible in the job. The planned effect was achieved, and the Serbian official media are trying to exploit it to the utmost by presenting it for days as a historical event.

The secrecy of the preparations was such that even the person who should have been one of the authors of the undertaking was isolated: Biljana Plavsic. The elected President of Republica Srpska was avoided for reasons different from those which refer to the rest of the public. It is well known that her relations with Slobodan Milosevic have been straineed for quite some time, and that they have not changed even when she came to the head of Republica Srpska last Septemner. Maybe they could have moved in the right direction if it had not been for the Serbian post-election protests and Plavsic's support to democratic efforts of the opposition.

Therefore, she was not the one who sat down at the long table in the building of the Presidency of Serbia where the agreement was signed - which would be only logical - but Momcilo Krajisnik whose capacity in the text of the agreement was described as "President from Republica Srpska in the Presidency of Bosnia & Herzegovina". Krajisnik became qualified in the very sense Plavsic did not: he had manifested express, one could even say striking, repulsion to the Serbian democratic rebellion. Differences between the two Serb leaders in Bosnia which had occurred - as it can be heard - about other things too, proved to be a convenient opportunity for the Serbian leader from Dayton to reach out across the Drina again.

He needed this crossing badly. Pressured by all kinds of problems at home, problems which are one worse and more disagreeable than the other, for quite some time now, Milosevic has been searching for a possible solution which would enable him to take a breather. He has obviously tried to do something in this sense in Kosovo, but for the time being he has achieved nothing. In fact, since he has stolen in the local elections in Serbia, he seems to have run out of ideas and completely lacks political imagination. Now he has finally coaxed Krajisnik into doing something behind Plavsic's back that he will be able to defend as the "idea in the spirit of Dayton" in the legal sense, and in the national, as something that they will be able to interpret as integration, but which allegedly still cannot be called by its right name because of the world.

He has, therefore, started with the same old song about Serb imperialism he has sung so many times before, and with which he had won national glory. His zealous followers launched the thesis in public that Milosevic sooner or later but always keeps his promises from the Serb program, it is just necessary to wait for the right circumstances. And although there is no contents in this document which would point out to any great moves, and not even those which would indeed justify the story about the "integration" - the only thing which is not just finesounding empty talk is establishment of a certain council for cooperation and the declaration that there will be no visas and exit taxes, which is by no means sufficient for "integration", especially because the customs dues remain - only the act od signing itself was important for him, the event. he applied a small shock therapy: awakening of the sleeping Serbs. Perhaps that is why he convened the ceromony, in which the federal president Lilic appeared in the main role of a signatory, not in a federal building - which would be normal - but in the building of the Presidency of Serbia, under the enormous painting "The Battle of Kosovo" by Petar Lubarda.

Reactions in Serbia show that he has not completely missed the point, and from the aspect of power this is the first comparatively productive move after a long time and many obvious blunders. The value of the move, however, certainly is short living: to make at least the slighest shift from total political collapse and blockade.

If we take everything into account and make up the balance, this move was evaluated explicitly negatively by Vuk Draskovic, and with underestimation by the Civic Alliance. Kostunica was fault-finding, insisting on unimportant details, but secretly rubbed his hands. Seselj's Radicals started opposing it claiming that the step was not sufficiently radical. In other words, it is is not excellent, but it is good. It is unnecessary to list all the praises by the Socialist Party, the Yugoslav United Left and the New Democracy.

Perhaps the most intriguing was Djindjic. Signing of the agreement - contrary to his coalition partners from Together - for him is in general a positive step but he looks at it with certain reservations. State television has not broadcast his praise, although it is eager for any positiove view. It is evident that Milosevic does not wish to share a single crumb of his new national glory with which he wishes to patch up holes which have appeared and are appearing in his power.

He does not wish to share his glory with his Montenegrin partners either. Absolutely everyone who refers to the agreement, speaks of it only as of Serb-Serb relations. Federal President Lilic was the one who gave this tone to the story immediately after signing, and it was continued by regime-controlled daily Politika which writes about the "historical Serb-Serb agreement". Nobody cares about the Montenegrins.

The formal destiny of the agreement is in the hands of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia & Herzegovina. For the time being, the agreement is not opposed from that side, except for the close associates of Izetbegovic who are attacking Krajisnik claiming that he, as the member of B&H Presidency, has done everything without permission and consultations. And that is where problems may arise. However, even before it reaches these instances, the agreement may be ruined if Biljana Plavsic decides to oppose it. Judging by the ceremony in Belgrade, however, she could remain alone in it, because both Chairman of the Assembly Dragan Kalinic and Prime Minister Gojko Klickovic were with Krajisnik. Plavsic may therefore pretend that she is supporting the job done without her by Milosevic and Krajisnik. Especially because this agreement certainly is not contrary to her fundamental national ideals. She is quite well known for her pragmatism and it is the only thing which can save the agreement from major temptations, if it prevails over her vanity of the ignored and humilitated head of the entity.

(AIM) Radivoj Cveticanin