Serbia is Shaken by Social-Economic Discontent of Citizens

BAD PROSPECTS FOR THIS YEAR

AIM Belgrade, 19 February, 1997

The authorities in Belgrade are having A very hard time because the protests of political nature have not completely died down yet, and an even broader wave of discontent of even broader strata of the population has surged Serbia due to the bad economic and social situation. Elementary and secondary schools are closed because teachers are on strike due to low salaries with which they cannot meet even the basic costs of living. Drivers of the city transportation enterprise have publicized a warning by keeping one third of the motor pool in the garages. Workers of the Foundry have gone on strike because of the delay of their salaries, and this will be reflected on the entire Belgrade metal complex which relies on the Foundry. The military council demanded from the federal state to collect taxes, customs duties and other dues more efficiently, in order to ensure financing of the army. Kindergartens are also closed, because employees are also demanding to be better paid. This is just a part of those who are demanding ensuring better conditions of life, but it is sufficient to bring the Government of Serbia into an almost hopeless situation.

Although this year's economic policy was ambitiously planned with the explanation that an increase of production of 20 per cent can be accomplished, and an even higher export, the beginning of the year with the increase of production in January of just 2.3 per cent replaced optimism with pessimism. With such economic trends, the Government cannot meet even much lower demands than the ones made by the population. That is why Serbia is facing the risk of complete paralysis of economic activities and general economic movements. In comparison with the political protests caused by refusal of the regime to recognize results of the elections in places where the opposition coalition had won, the social rebellion is a much greater threat for the ruling oligarchy which is awaiting republican elections in the end of the year.

In the republican chamber of the economy it is already possible to hear proposals for a change of aims of economic policy because expenses are based on them. According to the plan, 47 per cent of the social product is intended for financing non-economic activities and covering state expenditures. Since production cannot reach the projected proportions, non-economic consumption must be reduced or else half of the social product will be allocated for covering it, which will be a deathly blow for the economy. The authorities are caught in a spoecific vicious circle, because they have nobody to take money from in order to meet the numerous demands.

When it was conceiving this year's economic policy, the Government of Serbia counted on increased financial support of international financial institutions, but talks about the return of Yugoslavia into the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization have been postponed, so that hopes for arrival of foreign capital have disappeared into thin air. Prime Minister Mirko Marjanovic hurried to accuse the opposition coalition for the delay in establishing financial arrangements because it had decided to fight for the votes it had won by demonstrating in the streets. President of Serbia Slobodan Milosevic gave way only after three months of the protest, so that internal disorders, due to which the world had refused to communicate with Serbia, lasted unnecessarily long and a lot of money was spent by bringing police forces into the streets with which the regime tried to break the citizens' resistance.

It was easier for the regime to meet the political demands than social and economic ones, because for the first it was sufficient to manifest good will, and for the latter it is necessary to have material foundation and Serbia does not have it. Capabilities of its economy are extremely humble and with no capital from abroad, change of the present unfavourable economic structure is unfeasible. The economy has paid the high price of bad domestic policy which did not have enough tolerance for cooperativeness with the international community and got itself into isolation. Among the ruling structures the opinion that guilt for such position of Serbia lies without it is still predominant. Connoisseurs of circumstances remind that the regime was more obsessed with preservation of power than with drawing the country out of the general crisis. This view was unintentionally confirmed by Dr Radmila Milentijevic who explained to the representative of the American Embassy in Belgrade that she had come from the USA to Serbia and accepted the minister's post in order to help Slobodan Milosevic, "forgetting" to mention what the Serbian people were getting by her arrival, although she was presented to the public as a pronounced Serb patriot.

In view of the fact that the Government has no material possibilities to meet increasing demands for improvement of the economic position of the population, there is a justified fear that social pressures might push it into the adventure of issuing unsecured money. At the moment such a possibility is refused, but the pressures are not slackening, so the parents are afraid that their children will lose this school year. The students who are going on with their political protest are not so worried about losing a school year, because, as their leader Cedomir Jovanovic says: "It is better to lose one year than have one's whole life turn out to be a failure".

Although the Government is trying to preserve the budget cash box from which education and other activities are financed, at the same time it is highly inefficient in filling the cash box. It was calculated that last year, due to smuggling of cigarettes, the republican budget was deprived of 1.26 billion dinars, and this amount would have been sufficient to return teachers to schools. Apart from cigarettes, smuggling of other goods has also been developed, so that losses of the republican cash box are even higher. There are two kinds of smuggling in Serbia. One is the occupation of the people who influence the authorities which turn a blind eye in return, and the other is pursued by the citizens who seek a possibility to survive in small time retail. The latter ones, although less dangerous for the economy of the country are exposed to greater repression of the authorities.

Recently a group of economists made a program for economic recovery of the country. Professionally, it does not differ much from previous projects, but like similar steps, it lacks the general social concensus which is impossible to achieve in Serbia due to internal political relations. Warnings are coming from people who used to be in state administration but have left it because of disagreement with Milosevic's policy, that first internal policy has to be changed, so that it will be acceptable for the international community, and only then will it be possible to count on financial support. The experience, however, shows that Milosevic is not ready to adapt until he is forced to, that is, until he pays the highest possible price. That is why there is justified fear that another year will "go to the dogs", with the only difference that this time the price could be exceptionally high, and the developments in the very beginning of the year lead to this depressing conclusion.

(AIM) Ratomir Petkovic