MEMORANDUM ON EXCHANGE

AIM Zagreb, 10 January, 1997

Will Vukovar remain being a Serb town even when it is returned under Croatian rule? Will the Serbs in this city maintain the majority even after peaceful reintegration of Eastern Slavonia? The ruling circles are trying to minimize such a possibility, but they do not deny it. It might turn out that such a denouement could be a consequence of the solution offered at the moment to the Serbs by Franjo Tudjman.

"The Memorandum on Completion of Peaceful Reintegration of Croatian Danube Basin", as the full title of the document offered by Croatian authorities to the transitional administration and Eastern Slavonian Serbs reads, determines election rules and the position of the Serb community in Croatia. Local elections in the entire state, including the region of Eastern Slavonia which is at the moment under international administration, will take place in little over two months. The Croatian party is now accepting that all the Serbs who have Croatian papers may participate in the elections. This means both those who lived in Croatia before the war and those who apply for these documents. This means that even the Serbs who had come to Eastern Slavonia from other parts of Croatia may also go to the polls. This solution was prescribed by the Erdut Agreement, but Zagreb was trying to evade it so far. Now it has accepted it, as well as the provision that the Serbs may choose where they want to vote - either where they are living now or in places of their previous residence.

The memorandum of understanding, as it has already been unformally called, offers the Serbs the post of a vice-district prefect in two districts - Vukovar-Srijem and Osijek-Baranja - a few high posts in ministries, three seats in the Chamber of Representatives of the Assembly, which they already have, and a seat in the Chamber of Districts. Like all the other minorities, the Serbs are offered cultural and educational autonomy. They may also establish a council of the Serb ethnic community for the mentioned two districts, authorized to take initiatives with the government and head of the state. This document also envisages that the Serbs will not have to serve in the army; they will be permitted to work it off instead like all the other citizens with conscientious objection.

The Memorandum does not speak about it, but the offer allegedly even includes some specific personnel solutions. Rumour goes that the Osijek district-prefect, the hard-core and rightist Branimir Glavas, will be removed. It could be heard before that the international administration in Eastern Slavonia had already demanded that he be removed, because with his stances and treatment of the Serbs he was making the process of peaceful reintegration of this region even more difficult. Tudjman is allegedly now ready to make even such concessions. But Glavas is not, he said so publicly, so it remains to be seen how the attempt to pacify "HDZ hawks" will end. It is also highly questionable how serious such an attempt can be.

Croatian regime media comment that the Memorandum is a politically wise and for the Serbs very generous move. Indeed, it is an offer which Tudjman until recently was not ready to make. It is claimed to the public that this was motivated by a wish to end the mandate of international forces and their presence in Croatia as soon as possible. Although praising his results lately, Croatia wishes to see off general Klein, UN administrator of Eastern Slavonia, as soon as possible, wishing in fact to make the Serb issue its internal affair and not international. It can be heard here that the international community demands more for the Serbs than they could have won for themselves. Tudjman is also probably in such a hurry to see the return to the Danube Basin because of his own health. He does not wish, it is claimed, to leave his historical work uncompleted.

The Memorandum has already met with sharp criticism which arrived from the ranks of the opposition and the banished persons. The provision on free choice of polling station is questioned most frequently. Zlatko Tomcic, President of the Peasants' Party, claims that in this way, Vukovar could end up as a city with majority Serb population, which it was not before the war. Zdravko Tomac, leader of the Social Democratic Party, also points out to the danger of establishing a new ethnic picture in the Danube Basin.

The Momorandum in a way implies abandoning the attempt to restore pre-war national composition in the region. If all the Serbs who are living there now remain in eastern Croatia, the Croats - even if they all returned - could hardly parry them. And such a possibility will additionally discourage return. Although the leadership intends to organize a spectacular return to Vukovar. Tudjman says that he will lead Croatia to the Danube under "victorious banners". It might perhaps be the return of Croatian authorities, but hardly a return of banished persons.

The officials of the Presidential headquarters defend the provisions about freedom of choice of the polling station by claiming that in this way the right to vote is ensured also for the Croats who have come to Croatia from Voivodina or Bosnia & Herzegovina. Since most of them are accomodated around Krajina and western Slavonia, in regions which used to be populated by the Serbs, this means that the forthcoming elections will in fact cement and legalize exchange of population. If they wish former Krajina to be Croat - it is almost inevitable for Eastern Slavonia to be Serb. And this, for Croatia unfavourable denouement was brought about by those who by acts or by passing it over in silence, contributed to emptying Western Slavonia, Lika, Banija and Kordun of the Serb population. For the first time it can be heard from among the opposition that the only solution is return of everybody to their own. The question is whether it is not too late for that.

It can be understood that Croatian authorities rely on the fact that a large number of Serbs will not live to see it. Indeed, the authorities will even try to stimulate their departure. The Memorandum anticipates that a "just compensation" will be paid to all those who wish to leave. That other solutions are also at stake can be discerned from the statement of the German foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel. He warned Croatia a few days ago that it should not permit banishment or mass emigration of the Serbs from the east of the country. Announcing departure of international troops in the middle of the year and full reintegration of Eastern Slavonia in Croatia, Kinkel said that it would be "terrible" if the Croats would turn this region into "a new Krajina" and initiate a new "mass flight".

At the same time, Sarajevo is sounding alarm claiming that there is a plan to move eastern Slavonian Serbs to Bosnia & Herzegovina, in the region of Brcko. Such a solution would probably be convenient both for the Serb and the Croatian party, it would after all be in full accordance with the policy pursued so far from Belgrade and Zagreb, so they would in all probability, easily reach an agreement about it. If the international community does not prevent such a development, it will mean that Bosnia & Herzegovina is definitely sentenced to death.

JELENA LOVRIC