MILOSEVIC AS AN ALIBI

Zagreb Jan 23, 1997

AIM ZAGREB, 11 January, 1997

Recently, the Croatian President Dr.Franjo Tudjman disclosed a sensational information that "happening of the people" was first planned for Zagreb only to spread later to Sarajevo and Belgrade. The aim of that international conspiracy was to punish Tudjman, Milosevic and Izetbegovic, i.e. remove them because they were most to blame for the disintegration of Yugoslavia. According to the Croatian head of the state all this was to happen with the assistance of quislings who have been bought with Judas' money.

Actually, this was first Tudjman's comment on large protest gatherings of Zagreb citizens at the Jelacic Sq. because of the withdrawal of frequency from the popular "Radio 101", but at the same time an assessment of the wave of dissatisfaction expressed in the streets of Serbia because of the stealing of elections. With such a statement Tudjman has primarily hurt the pride of 150,000 people of the capital and at the same time expressed his support of Milosevic, without any sympathies for those who on Belgrade streets shouted: "This is not Zagreb!"

For who knows how many times both the rhetoric and actions have shown the similarity in the manner of ruling between the Croatian and Serbian Presidents, the only difference being that till now Tudjman was not forced to use special units in such a cruel way. The Croatian media, especially the state ones, have very shortly, carefully and restrainedly reported on the Belgrade and other events, simply not knowing what to do with this hot potato, more so as with these ambiguous and contradictory theses Tudjman draw the boundaries within which they were allowed to move. Something more about the latest Serbian "happening of the people" could be learned in the TV show "Motriste" (The Watch-out) which the witty "Radio 101" long ago renamed into "Mokrista" (The Wetlands), while the most reliable source was, and still is, TV Slovenia which can be seen in most of Croatia.

There are several key reasons for the reserved attitude of the Croatian public, both that favourably inclined to Tudjman and the HDZ, as well as the opposition, from the extreme right to the left, towards the events in Serbia. Namely, irrespective of the fact that there is practically no Croat who doesn't blame Milosevic for the war, destruction of the Croatian cities and villages, for the Serbian rebellion, multitude of the wounded and killed, missing, expelled, exiled and emigrants, those who consider him the main culprit for the brutal war in B&H, all in an attempt to operationalize the insane idea on Great Serbia, many wonder: in what respect is the opposition different? Nobody here has forgotten that Vuk Draskovic is the author of the thesis on Serbia with the Virovitica-Karlobag borderline, that he was the first to send volunteers to Croatia and accuse Milosevic, not for starting the war, but for losing it. The young-looking Djindjic has long ago used up his image of a liberal and liberatory politician in jeans, while the Croatian public sees him as a Greater-Serbian lamb in wolf's clothing. Sympathies for Vesna Pesic have also deflated because people wonder what is she doing in such a company, where those raising three fingers are both on the stage and in the audience.

The crucial thing which gives hope that another Serbia has truly arisen and not awaken, is the fact that the majority of protesters are young people, those who were practically children when Milosevic started his war onslaught. It is this fact that proves that wrong are those who claim: they are all the same, and gives ground for a more subtle analysis of the latest Serbian developments. An additional difficulty in an objective analysis is the interference of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) which has refused obedience to Milosevic, but that part of its statement blaming Milosevic for betraying Serbian brothers on the West, sticks out, which is in Croatia, practically without exception, interpreted as a proof that the SPC has not give up on the programme of Great-Serbia and that the majority of Serbs have not abandoned the idea on being God-sent people with mythical origin.

Irrespective of all the complexity and subtlety of the developments in Serbia, disregarding the international pressures on Milosevic and his partial capitulation before his own people, regardless of the versatility of that street company, the official Zagreb still wants Milosevic for a partner. Thus, last week on HTV (the Croatian Television), in a longish comment-analysis, Obrad Kosovac literally said: "Democratic Serbia does not suit Croatia"!

Similar, but journalistically more literate, polished and indirect theses could be read, for example, in the "Vecernji list" (Evening Paper) or "Vijesnik" (Herald). Why does Croatia want Milosevic, why does the official Zagreb have no sympathies for the coalition "Together" and those hundreds of thousands of Belgrade citizens who persistently demand changes and replacements? Why is HDZ fearing a democratic Serbia, why changes in the neighbouring country with which he has signed a document on mutual recognition and normalization of relations several months ago, do not suit Tudjman?

Some reasons should be looked for in the internal situation in Croatia in which it is possible to find analogy between the Zagreb and Belgrade elections, relation towards the media, with the glaring cases of "101" and "Radio B92", as well as in relation to civil and national rights, situation in the legislature. If something was to change in Serbia, and it is, Croatia would be exposed to an even greater pressure of both the domestic, as well as international public. However, the essential reasons for supporting Milosevic lie exclusively in the foreign policy domain, because the more undemocratic Serbia, but also Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania or Moldavia, the more arguments to refuse the European Union's initiative on regional Balkan approach or the American on south-east Europe.

Instead of changing the situation in his own country, avoiding to infuriate the international community with civil and national rights violations, refraining from unnecessary scandals, such as the one with "Radio 101", "Feral", "Novi List" (New Paper), etc., instead of eliminating his opponents by proclaiming them conspirators and traitors, violating the Constitution when removing the President of the Supreme Court from office, instead of allowing the revamping of Ustashi movement, reshaping the history, etc., it is easier for Tudjman to have Serbia as an alibi.

Croatia has already declared itself against the regional approach of the European Union, and recently in Vienna, together with Slovenia, it refused to sign Letter of Intent on cooperation in south-east Europe, but it remains to be seen what will happen if Clinton sends his special envoy to Zagreb, as he did previously with the Hungarians who finally agreed to initial this document. Allegedly, on January 14, the American diplomat Richard Schiffer is coming to Zagreb to try and persuade, i.e. blackmail, the Prime Minister Zlatko Matesa into Croatia's joining this strange association. According to "Globus" it has been decided for strategic reasons for President Tudjman not to receive Clinton's messenger, while Matesa, naturally has no mandate to say either "yes" or "no".

Kosovac, or better said the TV man for all times, understood his task too seriously and stripped the Croatian policy naked, but then why should a man of duty be any more subtle than the one issuing orders? Still, that is what Deputy Foreign Minister Dr.Ivo Sanader tried to do when in TV Parliament he stated that events in Serbia are the internal affair of that country, and that as OSCE member, Croatia supports the stands of this Organization. However, this diplomatic move was instantly annulled by Dr.Ivic Pasalic, Tudjman's chief counsellor and HDZ Vice-President, who stated that in their history Serbs have many times chopped off Serbian heads, but have always been united against "us". And there is where we go back to the beginning: they are all the same, and if that is so than better Milosevic, than someone else. We had many good deals with him.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC