MILOSEVIC DANGEROUSLY SILENT

Serbia: What is OSCE?

After the report of the OSCE about the victory of the opposition in the cities, President of Serbia brought out into Belgrade streets yet unseen number of police special units and shows no intention to accept either the votes of his own citizens or the message of the democratic world

AIM Belgrade, 30 December, 1996

Perhaps only Milosevic can resist such pressure: in the past two days there has not been a single relevant political personage in the western hemisphere who has not sent a message to him that he must act pursuant the recommendation of the delegation of the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe which visited Serbia at his own invitation in order to establish the truth about the second round of local elections that took place on 17 November. Personal envoy of the Chairman of OSCE, Felipe Gonzales, without any doubt established that the opposition coalition Together won in 13 cities and nine Belgrade municipalities - as claimed by hundreds thousand citizens in demonstrations around Serbia for odd 40 days - and that this result had to be accepted. President of Serbia, however, brought yet unseen number of special police units into the streets and shows no intention to either accept the vote of his own citizens or the message of the democratic world.

As a reminder it should be said that President Milosevic, in his pompous letter to American Secretary of State, Warren Christopher a few weeks ago - apart from having explained to him that this country had a faultless democratic election system and from having recommended to him to get informed about the developments in Serbia in official institutions - he also wrote that he would invite a respectable OSCE delegation to establish the state of affairs on site. He, of course, failed to mention that the Americans themselves had proposed such a move back on 18 November - as soon as they realized that recognition of election results would not go very easily since according to them the opposition had won in the biggest cities in Serbia. He also organized a series of demonstrations of support to his letter and received numerous telegrams in which his addressing Christopher was praised and the slogan launched that "Serbia shall not be led by a foreign hand".

Therefore, the OSCE was invited - and the delegation arrived very promptly, consisting of unexpectedly highly representative members. Not only was it headed by Felipe Gonzales, former Spanish prime minister, a Socialist with a rich experience in resistance to Francoistic dictatorship and one of the most respectable European politicians, but there was also Max Campelman, a highly competent lawyer, diplomat with fifty-year experience who, among other, negotiated about SALT1 and SALT2 with the former USSR (exceptionally hard and long negotiations about limitation of strategic and nuclear armament) and tireless fighter for human rights, a few ambassadors and at least one world famous lawyer. They stayed in Belgrade on 20 and 21 December and spoke to Milosevic, Milan Milutinovic - foreign minister of FRY, Gorica Gajevic - secretary general of the ruling Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Vuk Draskovic, Zoran Djindjic and Vesna Pesic - leaders of the coalition Together and their team of lawyers, representatives of independent media, to the students, president of the City Electoral Commission of Belgrade, president of the First Municipal Court (the one which invalidated the election victory of the opposition in Belgrade), to acting president of the Supreme Court of Serbia. In Belgrade, different participants in the political litigation which is shaking Serbia for more than a month treated Gonzales and his company the best they could and offered them the strongest arguments they had.

The authorities offered Gonzales a villa in Dedinje (the elite part of the city, where the highest state officials live, Milosevic inclusive), but he refused and found accommodation in a hotel together with the rest of the delegation. Chief of diplomacy Milutinovic, known for his absolute lack of skill in communication with foreign diplomats of any rank, introduced Gonzales with the journalists who waited for him at the Belgrade airport with the words: "This is the Prime Minister", believing probably that the guest would find it agreeable if the fact that he was the former prime minister was passed over in silence. During the official talks the guests were given maps in which territories where the left coalition SPS-JUL-New Democracy had won were coloured red, while tiny green dots marked places where the opposition had won after the second round. They also got a package each of badly translated laws and election regulations. In statements issued about the talks expectations were expressed that the "distorted image" which exists "in a part of the international public" about the elections in Serbia would be eliminated and that Yugoslavia would soon take the place it deserves in the OSCE (its membership was suspended) and other "international political, economic and financial institutions".

In the coalition Together they first asked how the former prime minister would be addressed in Spain - the country in which the etiquette is considered to be important. Then, during the night, they were preparing, translating and photocopying all relevant election documents, so that representatives of the OSCE, for example for Belgrade, received all minutes of the City Electoral Commission, all appeals and complaints submitted by the coalition Together, as well as all decisions of the courts. The legal aspect of the problem was presented by professors of the Law School in Belgrade - Vojin Dimitrijevic, Vesna Vodinelic-Rakic, Dragor Hiber... Leaders of the coalition openly answered the questions about remaining legal possibilities which still existed to recognize the 17 November election results - if Milosevic wished to get elegantly out of the political stalemate he had got himself into, about chances to organize a round table of the authorities and the opposition (they said it was possible, but only after recognition of their election victory and with firm rules and guarantees), about liberation of the media (they accepted to be given the second channel of Radio-Television Serbia).

The Spanish Ambassador in Belgrade gave his contribution - he took Mr Gonzales to the Embassy to watch the central news program of the RTS at 7.30 p.m. with the help of an interpreter. It was said that Mr Gonzales was impressed, although he learnt some of the possibilities of media manipulations at the time of Francoist Spain.

On 27 December, at the Geneva Hotel Intercontinental, Flavio Cotti, Swiss foreign Minister and Chairman of the OSCE met with Felipe Gonzales and Nils Petersen, the Danish foreign Minister who is taking over Mr Cotti's post as of 1 January,

1. That same afternoon, Mr Gonzales's report was made public. It says that coalition Together, on 17 Novemebr, won in Pirot, Kraljevo, Uzice, Smederevska Palanka, Vrsac, Soko Banja, Nis, Kragujevac, Pancevo, Jagodina, Zrenjanin, Lapovo, and nine Belgrade municipalities, and that "both parties and all political forces in Yugoslavia" were called to accept and respect the results of local elections. Belgrade was panic-stricken: what about the City Assembly where the large majority won by the opposition by urgent and flagrant election theft was turned into a minority? Explanation arrived from the OSCE that it was a technical slip in the text of the statement, and that the annex to the report "Belgrade City Assembly" was explicitly mentioned and eight municipalities, which was due to somebody's clumsiness in the statement summed up as "nine municipalities".

Reactions were instantaneous. Demonstrants in Belgrade

• who were in the meantime forbidden to walk down the streets so the "traffic is not disturbed" - and leaders of coalition Together, at the rally on 27 December greeted Mr Gonzales's report with a thundering applause and by shouting "victory, victory". Ill-famed Radio-Television serbia (RTS), after fifteen minutes of "more important" news, outdid itself by stating that the report of Felipe Gonzales confirmed the superior victory of the left coalition in the local elections
• as if anybody had ever questioned their victory where they actually did win - and by complete silence about everything said about the controversial cities. The unbelievable statement of Milan Milutinovic about confused Gonzales was repeated once and again. It would be a shame not to quote it: "According to the assessment of the OSCE, the opposition has won a majority, however, when one looks more closely at the list of the municipalities, one can see that things have been jumbled up. Because, naturally, the delegation could not have mastered everything in 24 hours". He clarified it by saying that the OSCE delegation had "jumbled things up" when it assessed that the opposition had won in Belgrade "and in some municipalities such as Kragujevac, Uzice and some other" (he had never said which would have been the correct thing to say in the report). He also immediately started to diminish the importance of the report which was "preliminary" as he said, because this organization still needed to discuss it. Just like Nikola Sainovic, Vice-Prime Minister of Serbian Government the day before, he also mentioned that everything had to be resolved in "institutions of the system" (without answering the question what these institutions had been doing for almost a month and a half).

The coalition partner of the SPS, New Democracy supports conclusions of the OSCE. Vojislav Seselj, leader of the Serb Radical Party, believes that the OSCE could not have reached other conclusions, but he says that he is against their meddling in internal affairs. Unambiguous warnings arrived from the world though: "I demanded from Milosevic to send us his answer by the beginning of next week at the latest. This is a decisive moment for Yugoslavia and the whole region" (Flavio Cotti); "Any action of the Serbian authorities to deny the Serbian people of their rights may take Serbia into further economic, political and diplomatic isolation" (Dick Spring, Irish foreign Minister and Chairman of the European Union); "We can do nothing but wish that President Milosevic would draw a lesson from everything that has happened and interrupt his prolonged international diplomatic isolation which can end only by his recognition and acceptance of the results of local elections" (Hans van den Broek, European Commissioner): "Serbia must respect all its international obligations and start towards democracy before it can expect to be received as a full-fledged member of the international community" (statement of American State Department). British Foreign Office, high representative Carl Bildt also issued statements... The only one who is silent is Slobodan Milosevic.

Despite everything said, despite increasing threats with repeated introduction of sanctions (which Serbia could hardly survive economically), despite the fact that he himself, from the icon of the Dayton peace, would again turn into a person whose name will not even be mentioned in a sophisticated international company, the President of Serbia should especially be concerned by two things. The first is increasing disassociation of Montenegro from his policy. Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic declared that Montenegro could not take sides in the Serbian conflict, "but quite legitimately we stress the demand that it is the interest of general benefit, the interest of development of the FRY, to resolve the problems in Serbia efficiently, justly and as soon as possible". Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic also mentioned the need to protect Montenegro founded on the Constitution. This Republic by no means wants to be subjected to sanctions together with Serbia. The other Milosevic's great concern should be the Christmas message of Patriarch Pavle - issued on 28 December, although the Orthodox Christmas is on 7 January. With all the bishops of the Serb Orthodox Church, the Patriarch said that "implementation of the law and justice obliges everybody to respect the freely expressed will of the people, prevention of arbitrariness and violence which will and can never bring any good either to the people or to the state", as well as that "there is no secret that shall not become public, nor a concealed matter that shall not be revealed, that we shall all face His (God's) just ordeal where it shall be impossible to vindicate oneself by untruth, injustice and crime"...

According to the assessment of the BBC, Milosevic's problem is how to meet the demands of the world without admitting defeat to the opposition. One could say that even for Milosevic this is a completely impossible undertaking. The only thing that remains for him to do is - either to admit to the opposition that it has won (even if RTS proclaimed it the President's personal triumph), or to increase repression and terror, and rule absolutistically while it is possible to do it. However, even he should know that it is impossible to rule like that for too long.

(AIM) ROKSANDA NINCIC