"TIME HAS COME TO REPLACE SLOBA"
Who are Demonstrants in Belgrade
Investigation: '96 Protest under Magnifying Glass of Sociologists
AIM Belgrade, 27 December, 1996
A jovial, gay-coloured Serbia is walking, whistling, fizzling, blowing ship horns, tinkling bells and keys, or simply shouting, defending votes in local elections and its good reputation. From the first days in the students' column, and later on also in the "main" one, young men with drums are walking and beating the rhythm of the hot samba so that even the elderly people around them are starting to dance. Above their heads, the flag of Brasil is fluttering in the cold wind. They say that this is a sign of their obvious "appeal for foreign intervention by Brasilian women from the carnival parade in Rio".
In the first days of the protest, the demonstrants carried Serbian flags. Guardians of the regime on duty in Radio-Television Serbia (RTS) said that a "handful of nationalists" was demonstrating in the streets. In the days that followed, the demonstrants carried flags of the European Union, different western Europeans countries, the USA, Canada. The regime immediately proclaimed them "traitors" and "foreign mercenaries". It is interesting that not a single "commentator" said anything about the flag of "Ferrari" which is seen every day among the "walkers".
A few days ago, this Serbia was opposed by the other Serbia, the one which carries only one photo - that of Slobodan Milosevic, sending in this way the message that he is Serbia. The President sent word to them that he loved them too (is politics the matter of love?) and explained that should "those who are trying to destabilize Serbia, succeeded, Serbia would be worth nothing". To the others, the President sent word that they were "fifth columnists", and everybody knows what should be done with them. In the days which followed, the police made it quite clear by abundantly using rubber batons on them.
Serbian Business
This is just a part of the story for history which is being written these days in Belgrade streets. Ever since the first days of protest gatherings of citizens and students in Belgrade and other cities of Serbia, reporters and analysts are trying to explain this protest, to assess its aims and ranges. It seems, however, that nobody, except the Serbs, can understand this intricate business. That is how it happened that in the first few days, various information were sent into the world and for the domestic public. It seemed to ones that pictures of Draza Mihajlovic carried by the demonstrants meant that the protest was nationalistic. The others wondered whether there can still be anyone who could really believe "that a picture, be it even that of Draza Mihajlovic, could be more dangerous than brutal theft of election results". The third remained stunned by the fact "that it is possible that somebody thinks that Serbia is threatened by those who are singing 'God's Justice' (the old Serbian national anthem) and celebrating their family patron's day (practiced only in Serbia), and not by those who are playing the Internationale and the ex-Yu national anthem, but who have, for the sake of their warriors' thieving passions, desecrated symbols they swear by, who have by their actions made even the most honourable anti-fascist and freedom-loving ideas of former Yugoslavia loathsome to this people".
Who are, therefore, the "quislings", "fifth columnists", for whom walking has become a way of life and the only manner for fighting for democracy and who seem to be in somebody's way, although it is difficult to imagine (except on screens of the RTS) that anybody, even those who in this country still have where to hurry and what to do, can be disturbed more by a traffic jam than by impossibility to live decently from working or by the fact that their peace and time are stolen by those who do not wish to allow theft of civil will?
A research team of the Institute for Sociological Research of the Faculty of Philosophy in Belgrade tried to resolve the series of dilemmas ranging from the question who participants of the protest were to the one what their objectives and value system was, in an analysis of different aspects of '96 Protest and in an attempt to penetrate into the essence of the current turmoil in Serbia.
Political, Civil and Social Rebellion
A team of associates of the Institute (Marija Babovic, Vladimir Vuletic and Slobodan Cvejic) with a group of sociology students, conceived and conducted an investigation "in vivo" (from 8 to 14 December) which covered participants of protest demonstrations in Belgrade organized by the coalition Together. The basic idea of the investigation was to assess whether the protest was mostly political or social, to what extent it was urban, whether it was nationalistic or civil.
Almost the same number of men and women participate in the protest, and most of them are between the age of 20 and 29 (29.7 per cent); the ones between the age of 40 and 49 are also numerous (23 per cent), and there are only 3.3 per cent of those under the age of 19. There are 10.9 per cent of those who are between 60 and 69 among the demonstrants. There are very few workers in the protest (8 per cent). The most active are citizens with secondary-school education (48.4 per cent) and university and college education (45.8 per cent). Those with elementary school and lower education are the fewest (while in the total population there are 57 per cent of them, among the demonstrants there are only 2.7 per cent of them). As concerning profession, the largest number of demonstrants are experts (24.4 per cent), mostly in natural and engineering sciences. University and secondary school students follow (21 per cent), then clerks and technicians (15 per cent), with almost just as many pensioners (14 per cent). Majority of the participants are employed in the public sector (70 per cent), most of them in education, culture and arts (28 per cent). The investigation has also shown that these are distinctly urban demonstrations, in other words, there are 91.5 per cent of inhabitants of urban environments among the demonstrants.
The political profile of the participants of the protest significantly deviates from the notion that these are demonstrations of the coalition Together. The results of the investigation show that 51 per cent of the participants are sympathizers or members of the parties in the coalition. However, 30 per cent of the participants are neither members nor sympathizers of any party. Among the half which includes followers of the coalition, 13 per cent are members of the Democratic Party (DS), the Serb Revival Movement (SPO) and the Civic Alliance of Serbia (GSS), and 23.8 per cent are just sympathizers of one of these parties. Apart from that, 14.7 per cent support the Coalition, that is, all the three parties, which in itself speaks of a somewhat more generalized opposition political orientation, research workers believe.
Among the participants of the protest in Belgrade streets, there are also those citizens who used to support Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic. Investigators were doubtful that the investigation in the midst of the demonstrations would register the actual number of those who used to support Milosevic, but on account of the acquired data, they say, it is possible to claim with certainty that at least 17.3 per cent of the current participants of the protest once supported him.
One of the main motives for initiation of the investigation project was to resolve the dilemma whether this was a political or a broader, social protest. Although from the very beginning it was clear that the main immediate cause for the protest was invalidation of the second round of the local election results, the investigators suspected that this prominent reason concealed much deeper and broader demands which would reveal a social nature to the protest. The results of the investigation showed that, after all, it is a political protest, but not in the narrow sense of the election results. Recognition of results of the second round of the local elections appears as the most significant demand (in 55.7 per cent of the cases), while at the same time 40.2 per cent of the subjects list the change of the regime headed by Slobodan Milosevic among the most significant demands. In favour of the thesis about a broad social character of the protest speak the data that 30.6 per cent of the subjects are underlining the demand for democratization.
To a question whether Serbia should build a social system similar to those in Western Europe, the subjects mostly declare themselves in favour of constructing a society by the western model and up to 92.9 per cent answer affirmatively to this question. However, this verbally confirmed wish is backed by a much more realistic and much more significant indicators. In other words, demands of the demonstrants are much more universal and refer primarily to demands for broadening freedom and dignity. As the greatest expectations from the protest, majority of subjects mention: greater freedom 51.5 per cent, and then there is safer future 31.9, rise of the standard of living 19.7, joint life of Serbs in a single state 8.3 and professional promotion 7.5 per cent. All that, investigators say, points to the conclusion that freedom as the basic value of liberal ideology is the key motive power of the protest. The stance about the significance of private ownership as a condition for social progress also speaks about the liberal character of the protest. About 80 per cent of participants of demonstrations completely or mostly agree with this stance.
False Dilemma
According to findings of the investigation, the dilemma whether the protest is civic or national is - false. Participants of the protest are linked to democratic objectives and civic values: 56.5 per cent of them state as one of the most important demands of the protest recognition of election results, in other words respect of individual franchise and legitimacy of the election procedure, 21.8 per cent demand general democratization, and the demand for freedom of media appears in 17.2 per cent of cases. As one of the reasons for joining the protest, 59.8 per cent state the feeling for justice and freedom of election choice, and 23.2 per cent development of a society similar to those in Western Europe. Convincingly most of the subjects are expecting affirmation of individual values after departure of the ruling regime, 52.4 per cent of them would feel more dignity and freedom, and safe future ranks second with 32.2 per cent.
In the attempt to answer to the question how many nationalists there are among the demonstrators, investigators arrived at indirectly: among demonstrants 13.3 per cent directly reproach Slobodan Milosevic that he has inflicted great damage to the Serb nation or national interest, or that he has neglected the Serb national issue. While 89.2 per cent believe that the current president has done nothing useful for Serbia in his career, only 6.7 per cent believe that it is good that he has awakened national awareness. Further on, 8.3 per cent of the subjects believe that one of the things which would change after the change of the regime is that the Serb nation would win the possibility of living in a single state. In connection with other questions from the questionnaire, the investigators established that the last mentioned one best separates nationalists from the rest.
The '96 Protest which for more than a month rolls along the streets of Belgrade is undoubtedly a political protest, but it is important to note that it is in fact a protest in which the leaders of the opposition took the lead and who are now successfully articulating demands of the protest, but that it is not an organized protest of opposition parties. Almost one third of the citizens at the protest do not declare themselves as either members or sympathizers of political parties (30.4 per cent). Only 13 per cent of subjects are members of parties from the coalition Together and only 3.5 per cent demonstrators are shouting slogans of support to the opposition and leaders of the opposition. Only 6.2 per cent of the subjects think that opposition leaders should be thanked for the length of the protest.
Judging by these analyses, investigators believe that it can hardly be said to be a protest which is primarily organized by the opposition. The assumption that the leaders of the opposition are just well articulating demands of the demonstrators is much more convincing. As the main conclusion connected to organization of the protest it could be said that there is confidence in leaders of the opposition, but that the gathered citizens are not here because of the leaders and simple replacement of the personality in power, but that this is a case of specific political demands.
The investigation of the Institute included investigation of the connection between the students' protest and the protest of the coalition Together. Among the subjects, 20.7 per cent of students and pupils were detected. Demonstrations can thank for their longevity, among other or solely, to the students' protest, say 21.1 per cent of the subjects, and the students are close to this assessment. The grown-ups and the students are very similar in a whole series of characteristics: in their views, system of values, recognition of objectives of the protest, behavior in the demonstrations (except that the students walk more and the grow-ups listen to speeches more).
The '96 Protest has another specific characteristic - new demonstrants: 18.7 per cent of them have never been in the streets in a protest before. They are also less affiliated to any party (41.1 per cent are neither members nor sympathizers of political parties) than experienced demonstrants (28 per cents). Majority of new demonstrants are from the ranks of the students and officials, and it is also interesting that there is not a single production worker who is in the demonstrations for the first time.
Almost 81 per cent of the polled citizens declared that they have participated in the protest from the very first day, while the others joined after the next few days, 67.3 per cent claim that they participate from the beginning to end (the whole three hours), 11.9 just walk, 13.2 just listen to the speeches and the news, and 7.5 combine these activities. The core of the protest, according to findings of the investigation, are those who participate from the beginning, come every day and remain from the beginning of the walk to the end of the speeches. According to assessments, on the average, between 80 and 120 thousand people participate in the protest every day, and out of that number there are 60-90 thousand "walkers" and 20-30 thousand those who just listen to the speeches.
As concerning the slogans and the messages, 40 per cent of the pollees claim that they do not shout a single one of them, 15 per cent yell "red gang", 11.7 whistle and shout "Uaaaa", 61.4 per cent use noise making devices, while 7.5 use visual signs. Despite pressures, arrests and maltreatment which most of the demonstrants were aware about at the time of the investigation, 65.8 per cent declared that they would be ready to throw eggs even if they knew that a police camera was registering them, while 98.3 per cent were ready to support the protest to the end, regardless of how long it might take. This speaks more about their personal connection to the protest than it can contribute to the evaluation of their behavior, the investigators believe.
Although it seems to many observers that walking has become a way of life, in Belgrade people are not so ready to accept bitterness with the election fraud which brought all animosities of the population towards the authorities on the surface as a way of life. The fact that they are gay in endless columns is brought about by the awareness that they are not alone, and hope that perhaps in the next few months or at least years, something could change, preferably the president of the Republic. Perhaps that is the reason why except for the "Walker" and "She-Walker", the badge which reads "Time Has come to Replace Sloba" is sold the most. And generally speaking, there are very few really cheerful people in this country.
Vesna Bjekic